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Business Site offers stock guru scorecardBY ERIC TYSON Q. Are you aware of any Web sites that evaluate stock market gurus' predictions? I would like to know how the advice of Bob Brinker and Jim Cramer rate. A. CXO Advisory Group (on the Web at www.cxo advisory.com) has developed a useful methodology for tracking various pundits' predictions. Brinker is among the best gurus. Here are those with an accuracy rate of more than 60 percent: • Ken Fisher in Forbes magazine, 69 percent Nineteen out of the 35 tracked market forecasters did worse than 50 percent. In its most recent report on gurus, CXO notes the below-average forecasting performance of the "ubiquitous Jim Cramer," of whom they add, "His predictions sometimes swing dramatically from optimistic to pessimistic, and back again, over short periods. It is difficult to infer his guiding valuation theory, if he has one. We wonder whether he tends to be swayed by the arguments of forceful advocates with whom he most recently interacted. "In summary, Mr. Cramer's stock market calls since May 2000 have low consistency and an accuracy just south of coin-flipping (below average). He seems more a stream of uncalibrated opinion than a stock market maven." |
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