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2/13/2002

                                 Today's Featured Expert: Jack Schannep

Jack Schannep has been around for a while. He's seen all types of market environments. However, with all this knowledge and experience, even he admits that this is a truly unique time for the marketplace, and the country in general. Investors are looking for a place to turn to, but unfortunately many are coming up empty. But through the Schannep Timing Indicator & the Dow Theory newsletter, Schannep can help take much of the mystery out of this market and keep you in the swing of things. Through this Pro's insights, investors can uncover the best time to put their money on the table, and, equally as important, the best time to stay put. In today's Featured Expert, learn why Schannep believes that now is a good time to be half in and half out of the market, while waiting to see what happens next in this unbelievable time in history.

These Are Unbelievable Times

OVERVIEW:

The mini-Bull market that started after 9/11 became the shortest Bull market in the 20th and 21st centuries. It lasted just under 6 months and only rose 29.1% from the post 9/11 low of 8,233 to 10,635 in March. Now we are in danger of an even shorter one.

The move from the October 9th low of +22.6% on the Dow Jones to it's high on November 28th and +20.9% for the S&P500 to it's high, qualified as a Bull market. The timeframe of only 1.6 months is unprecedented except for twice in 1931. It isn't officially over until and unless the Dow and S&P 500 each drop 16% to 7502 and 788 respectively.

The BOTTOM LINE:

You remember "It was the best of times, it was the worst of times" but beyond that, these are also the most unbelievable of times. The market is still above the October lows and does not yet qualify for a renewed bear market and yet, with world events so incredibly precarious it seems prudent to be half in and half out, waiting to see what happens next.

Time will presumably cure the earning side of the price to earnings equation as well as the geopolitical dilemma. As Jack Schannep posted in the Subscribers Area, a third and unprecedented capitulation would occur if Diamonds (AMEX: DIA ) were to drop to 7350, the NYSE to 4393, and the Spiders (AMEX: SPY ) to 777 THIS week. Those numbers would be about 7250, 4350 and 768 NEXT week.

If it meets support above the October lows with a successful test then this will have been the final 'shoulder' in the inverse 'head and shoulders' pattern that Schannep wrote about in the last Letter. Such an occurrence would point to a continuation of a new Bull market that was previously confirmed. But in the meantime, and when in doubt, it is best to straddle the fence with ½ IN the market and ½ OUT.

* * Reprinted with the permission of  Zacks * *

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