& TheDowTheory.com

*This amount becomes $6,393,307 as described in footnote at the top of this page. The comparable figure for our COMPOSITE Timing Indicator is $7,159,847.
** These are 'partial signals' as shown in the Dow Theorist's Sweepstakes.
       Further updates are available for Subscribers only under the results for the COMPOSITE Timing Indicator.

ÞThe BOTTOM LINE: The Dow Theory and the Schannep Timing Indicator had 24 similar signals (10 within 10 trading days of one another are underlined) although each indicator's signals are determined in totally different ways. The results of the 16 Buy signals, of course, matched Buy & Hold.  Outperforming the market cannot occur during a Buy signal when using the market index as a proxy, but only if another more aggressive investment vehicle is utilized.  It is under Sell signals that outperformance can occur, and that was the case in 11 out of 17 Sells by the Schannep Timing Indicator.  The Dow Theory outperformed on 10 of its 16 Sells.  75% of the time the Dow Theory beats Buy & Hold within a 6 1/2 year timeframe.  75% of the time the Schannep Timing Indicator beats Buy & Hold with a 4 year timeframe. Both Indicators outperformed Buy & Hold during 29 (81%) of the 36 ten year periods. There were 10 down years experienced by Buy & Hold (dividends included) during the 44 years above. There were 8 down years experienced by The Dow Theory (dividends included) and 7 down years experienced by Schannep Timing Indicator (dividends included) during those 45 years.   

Calculations from 1953 through 1997 were made by Mark Hulbert of the Hulbert Financial Digest based on dates that I supplied him for Buy & Hold and the Schannep Timing Indicator.   Hulbert made no representation nor conclusion as to the validity of the dates, only that the figures would have been as shown on the dates provided.  He used the Dow Jones with dividends reinvested annually, and money market rates in his calculations.   The dates and market levels have been verified by Kyle DeFoor, C.P.A.