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The following shows that BEAR markets have been followed (9 months on average) by recessions 73% of the time:

Bear Markets and Recessions

Bear Market Start to Recession Start:

Bear Market Dates:

Recessions:

Length (Mos):

Lead time:

% Drop Prior to Recession Start:

Total Bear Market Drop:

           
6/01-11/03

9/02 - 8/04

23

15 months

-15%

46.1%

1/06-11/07

5/07 - 6/08

13

16

-21

48.5

11/09- 9/11

1/10 - 1/12

24

2

-6

27.4

9/12 - 7/14 

1/13-12/14

23

4

-10

24.6

11/16-12/17

8/18 - 3/19

7

21

-25

40.1

11/19 -8/21 

1/20 - 7/21

18

2

-13

46.6

3/23-10/23

5/23- 7/24

14

2

-8

18.6

(10/26-11/27)

13

n/a

n/a

n/a
9/29 - 7/32 

8/29 - 3/33*

43

-1

0

89.2

3/37 - 3/38 

5/37 - 6/38

13

2

-11

49.1

11/38-4/42  

None

n/a

n/a

41.3

(2/45-10/45)

8

n/a

n/a

n/a
5/46 - 6/49 

11/48-10/49

11

30

-17

24.0

(7/53 - 5/54)

10

n/a

n/a

n/a
4/56-10/57 

8/57 - 4/58

8

16

-7

19.4

(4/60 - 2/61)

10

n/a

n/a

n/a
12/61- 6/62

None/"mild"

n/a

n/a

27.1

2/66-10/66 

None/but...**

 

n/a

n/a

25.2

12/68- 5/70

12/69-11/70

11

12

-19

35.9

1/73-12/74

11/73- 3/75

16

10

-15

45.1

9/76- 2/78

None

n/a

n/a

26.9

9/78- 4/80

1/80 - 7/80

6

16

-3

16.4

4/81- 8/82

7/81-11/82

16

3

-6

24.1

8/87-10/87

None

n/a

n/a

36.1

7/90-10/90

7/90 - 3/91

8

0

0

21.2

7/98-8/98 None  

n/a

n/a

19.3

1/00-3/01 3/01 - 11/01 8 14 -7 29.7
3/02-10/02 None  

n/a

n/a 31.5
10/07-11/08 12/07-7/09  19 2   -9 46.7
1/09 - 3/09 12/07-7/09 19 n/a n/a 27.5
4/11 - 10/11 ?       16.8

 

Average: 14.4 mos. 9.6 mos.

-10.8%

33.5%

*Depression
**Growth recession per Forbes Magazine (1/23/89) Industrial production fell from 1st Q 1967 to 3rd Q of 1967

ق  The BOTTOM LINE:   70% of BEAR Markets have been followed by Recessions. Only 4 (in parenthesis) of the total of 22 Recessions were not immediately preceded by BEAR Markets).