History in the Stock Market
in the 20th - 21st Centuries
 

      

27 Bull Markets 27 Bear Markets

Low Date

High Date

DJIA

% Gain No.of Mos.

% Loss

No.of Mos.

9/24/1900

52.96
6/17/01 78.26 47.8 8.7
11/9/03 42.15 46.1 28.7
1/19/06 103.00 144.4 26.3
11/15/07 53.00 48.5 21.9
11/19/09 100.53 89.7 24.1
9/25/11 72.94 27.4 22.2
9/30/12 94.15 29.1 12.2
12/24/14

(was 73.48) >  

53.17

< (changed basis)  

 

24.6 26.8
11/21/16 110.15 107.2 22.9
12/19/17 65.95 40.1 13.0
11/ 3/19 119.62 81.4 22.5
8/24/21 63.90 46.6 21.7
3/20/23 105.38 64.9 18.9
10/27/23 85.76 18.6 7.2
Note#1 9/ 3/29 381.17 344.5 70.2
7/8/32 41.22 89.2 34.2
Note#2 3/10/37 194.40 371.6 56.0
3/31/38 98.95 49.1 12.7
Note#3 11/12/38  158.41 60.1 7.4
4/28/42 92.92 41.3 41.5
5/29/46 212.50 131.9 49.0
6/13/49 161.60 24.0 36.5
4/ 6/56 521.05 222.4 81.8
10/22/57  419.79 19.4 18.5
12/13/61 734.91 75.1 49.7
6/26/62 535.76 27.1 6.4
2/ 9/66 995.15 85.7 43.4
10/7/66 744.32 25.2 8.0
12/ 3/68  985.21 32.4 25.9
5/26/70 631.16 35.9 17.8
1/11/73  1051.70 66.6 31.5
12/6/74 577.60 45.1 22.8
9/21/76 1014.79 75.7 21.5
2/28/78 742.12 26.9 17.2
9/11/78 907.74 22.3 6.4
4/21/80 759.13 16.4 19.3
4/27/81 1024.05 34.9 13.2
8/12/82 776.92 24.1 15.5
8/25/87 2722.42 250.4 60.4
10/19/87 1738.74 36.1 1.8
7/16/90 2999.75 72.5 32.9
10/11/90 2365.10 21.2 2.8
7/17/98 9337.97 294.8 93.2
8/31/98 7539.07 19.3 1.5
1/14/00 11722.98 55.5 16.5
9/21/01 8235.81 29.7 20.2
3/19/02 10635.25 29.1 5.9
10/9/02 7286.27 31.5 6.7
  10/9/07 14164.53 94.5 60.0    
11/20/08   7552.29     46.7 13.4
  1/2/09 9034.69 19.6 1.4    
3/9/09 6547.05   27.5 2.5
  4/29/11 12810.54 95.7% 25.4  
10/3/11

(to-date)

 10655.30     16.8 5.1
   Average:  111.1%       32.9 mos    33.5%     16.5 mos
   Median:  74.1%      25.4 mos    27.5%     17.2 mos
0-9% = Fluctuation                     -9 to -16% = Correction              -16% = Bear Market
                                                 +9 to +19% = Rally                       +19% = Bull Market
Percentages must be attained on both the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P500 stock averages

قThe BOTTOM LINE: Bull Markets more than double on average in just under 33 months (median time is 25.4 months).  Bear Markets drop over 1/4 to 1/3  in less than a year and a half.   The average stock market is in a Bull Market 67% of the time and in Bear Markets 33% of the time.  For the last 16 years of the 20th Century the percentages were 97% and 3%, but that should not have been expected to continue. The prior 16 years were split almost exactly 50%-50%.  So far in the 21st Century the timeframe is once again 2/3rds of the time in Bull markets and 1/3rd in Bear markets (as of 10/3/11).

The following 10 "mini-Bull markets" were aberrations in the 1930's, lasting an average of 3 months and 40 points, and are excluded for the purpose of definitions and the record, but shown here to complete the unabridged record:

Lows Highs DJIA % Gain # of  Mos. % Loss # of Mos
Note #1 11/13/29 198.69 47.9 2.3
4/17/30 294.07 48.0 5.1
12/16/30 157.51 46.4 8.0
2/24/31 194.36 23.4 2.3
6/ 2/31 121.70 37.4 3.2
6/27/31 156.93 28.9 .8
10/ 5/31 86.48 44.3 3.1
11/ 9/31 116.79 35.0 1.1
1/ 5/32 71.24 39.0 1.8
3/ 8/32 88.78 24.6 2.1
Note #2 7/18/32 41.22 53.6 4.0
9/ 7/32 79.93 93.9 2.0 
2/27/33 50.16 37.2 5.7
7/18/33 108.67 116.6 4.6
10/21/33 83.64 23.0 3.1
2/ 5/34 110.74 32.4 3.5
7/26/34 85.51 22.8 5.6
Note #3 4/ 8/39 121.44 23.3 4.9
9/12/39 155.92 28.4 5.1
6/10/40 111.84 28.3 8.9
11/ 9/40 138.12 23.5 5.0
4/28/42 92.92 32.7 17.7