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A.

Most money managers and Wall Street prognosticators have their ‘own’ favorite ‘systems’ or indicators that they like to think outperform the rest. In actual fact, very few of them do, but none of them admit it. The Dow Theory does outperform the market and has a published record to prove it. That record, however, depends on the interpretation being "the way it was intended" (as my interpretation has been described).  The problem is that the interpretation by a couple of other well known ‘experts’ on the Dow Theory has been poor.  For instance, "Dow Theory Letters" and "Dow Theory Forecasts" lost money based on their timing. My interpretation, as shown in "Technical Analysis of Stock Trends" by Edwards, Magee & Bassetti, and brought up to date in the Schannep Timing Indicator & TheDowTheory.com Newsletters has resulted in a gain exceding Buy and Hold results.. The documentation for these results can be found at "The Dow Theorist's Sweepstakes".   Sooner or later The Dow Theory will once again get the respect to which it is entitled.

One, I totally agree if they are talking about short term market timing. But two, if they are referring to major trend market timing, I can only assume that they are not able personally, or as a research department, to time the market, and do not think anyone else can. It happens that their stock selection in their recommended list is also below average in a recent quarter, year, and five year period. Three, I’d suggest they check out this web site and see the documented evidence to the contrary.

What’s the best way to utilize market timing?

My Indicator and The Dow Theory are applicable to the major New York Stock Exchange market indices. Therefore, an index fund focused on that market like "Spiders" (SPY's track the Standard & Poors 500 Stock Index), "Diamonds" (DIA's track the Dow Jones Industrial Stock Average), or the NYSE iShares (NYC's track the NYSE Composite) are most appropriate for those times when being 'in the market' is appropriate. An equal position in each will assure results midway between the three indices. Money market funds, Treasury bills, or the like, are appropriate for those times when one is "out of the market", thus preserving principal and earning a good rate of return.

Will my individual stock portfolio be impacted by your Timing Indicator?

It has been said that "a rising tide lifts all ships" which, of course, means that a Bull market will cause all stocks to go up. If my Indicator gives a BUY Signal the chances are very good (15 out of 16 times) that the market will rise (an average of +46%) and that will usually cause most stocks to rise. My Indicator is geared to the market as a whole, not specific individual stocks. A broad stock portfolio that emulates the market as a whole would be expected to move in accord with my Timing Indicator Signals.

How soon can I expect major trend timing to have an impact on my investment results?

A.

First of all, any expectations about the stock market and a timing advantage should be viewed in a longer term perspective. It depends on the phase of the market at the time you start and the accuracy of the signals. During a Bull market timing cannot outperform "the market" when an index fund is used as the investment vehicle, only a more aggressive mutual fund or stock portfolio might. During a Bear market, it may be possible to outperform the market immediately by being in money market funds, short term Treasuries, or the like until a BUY Signal at a lower level is indicated. A complete stock market cycle should usually be enough time for timing to exert its advantage. 75% of the time, The Dow Theory has beaten a Buy & Hold strategy within a 6 ˝ year timeframe. The Schannep Timing Indicator has beaten Buy & Hold within a 4 year timeframe 75% of the time. Both have beaten Buy & Hold over 29 of the 36 ten year periods from 1953 through 1998. The more time allowed, the greater the advantage should be.

Why should I start using your stock market major trend timing indicator NOW?

As with any investment program, the sooner one starts, the better the results should be over time. The stock market was in a very unusual period over the final 18 years of the 20th century in that Bull markets prevailed for 97% of the time, with Bear markets only occupying 3% of the time. That has changed in this new Millennium. Historically, during the 20th century, the time for Bull markets has been 67% and 33% for Bear markets.  I think you should expect that the market will revert to the norm in the 21st century and as of 2008, it has.  When Bull markets end, they are, of course, followed by  Bear markets, and NOW is when you need to know what our indicators are saying.

How will I know when you get a Signal and how does your Indicator work during Bear markets?

If you invest $200 in market timing by subscribing to our service for a year, you will be advised by e-mail whenever a Signal occurs. Monthly letters and periodic Special Reports will keep you informed on the likelihood of the markets outlook. You will have access to the most current status of The Dow Theory, the Schannep Timing Indicator, and the COMPOSITE Indicator on this web site under the "Instant Subscription" section. It is under SELL Signals that outperformance versus Buy & Hold can occur, and that was the case in 11 of 16 SELLs since 1953. Every Bear market since then has been signaled by my Indicator. SELL Signals have avoided, on average, over 55% of Bear Market losses. Of twelve calendar years since 1953 that the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has lost on the year, my Indicator was in a SELL mode for 64% of the time.

Is there a way to anticipate your signal and further improve your record?

Generally, anticipating a Signal is not recommended. Selling too soon in a Bull market can leave many an investor out long before the top, missing the last several thousand points. While my Indicator is not structured to sell before or at the top, on average it is within 10% after the top.  Selling is the hardest thing to call, but between The Dow Theory and the Schannep Timing Indicator, we have been able to Sell before Bear markets became official. Volume, consumer confidence and the yield curve often peak before the stock market does, as in 1999 and again in 2007, and can be a 'heads-up' to an impending Sell. With BUY Signals, there actually are other "pre-BUY" conditions that we point out when they occur, and are described for subscribers.

I hear you only need to miss certain critical days, or weeks or months, and market timing "goes to pot".

That’s right. Since 1950 there were 31 months in which the market rose 7% or more. Obviously, one would want to be invested during those months. My Indicator has been in a BUY mode during all or part of 27 (87%) of those months. During the same timeframe, there were 16 months which lost 7% or more, and of course one would want to miss as much of those as possible. Once again, my Indicator was in a SELL mode for all or part of 15 (93.8%) of those months. No indicator can be 100% right. The only way to capture 100% of the best days, weeks, and months would be to be invested 100% of the time,  but then you would also be in on all of the worst days, weeks, and months!

If your Timing Indicator becomes well known and popular, will it either affect the market or, more importantly, cease to work?

The market could react to its signals if enough people knew about them and acted upon them. I have never advertised my signals and will not start now, but even if others did "move the market" with their actions, it should only be minimal and short-lived. It is, after all, a very big stock market - room for all. My Indicator should not cease to work, because the momentum part of it would already be behind it in the case of a recent signal, and I hardly think the Federal Reserve Board is going to alter their monetary practices in order to trip us up.

Which is better, The Dow Theory or the Schannep Timing Indicator?

We follow them both because they are the two premier major trend timing indicators with documented superior long term records. As you can tell from the "Timing Advantage" section of this web page, there are times when The Dow  Theory beats the Schannep Timing Indicator, and other times when the opposite is true. During a time when Buy & Hold, with dividends included, lost money during 10 different years, The Dow Theory had 8 down years and the Schannep Timing Indicator had 7. While their signal dates are within 10 trading days of one another on 9 occasions, each had 2 or 3 totally different Buy and Sell or Sell and Buy back which were not signaled by the other.   But be sure to read the next question:

If The Dow Theory and the Schannep Timing Indicator are the two best major trend timing indicators that exist, in your opinion, why not combine their signals, i.e, buy only when both have BUY signals, and sell only when both say SELL?

A.

Not a bad idea. Certainly you could be very comfortable knowing that both Indicators were in synch with what you are doing. Such a technique does beat Buy & Hold over the long term, but not by as large a margin as either The Dow Theory or the Schannep Timing Indicator. The reason being, you are waiting for the last one to give its signal as confirmation, and usually that later signal is not as good as the earlier one. The advantage is you eliminate the individual signals which were not confirmed by the other, and that would have left you with the BUY of 1/25/91 holding without interruption throughout the longest Bull market in the 20th century. The best of all worlds, however, is a Combined Indicator which uses both, but in a different manner than suggested above, and such a COMPOSITE Timing Indicator IS available to our Subscribers, and the results are truly startling: the Dow Theory and Schannep Timing Indicator each more than doubles Buy & Hold, and our COMPOSITE outperforms them both by 15 to 25 percent!

What else do you sell besides "timing"? Mutual Funds, managed accounts, what?

Absolutely nothing else. And we definitely will not sell your name to anyone. You subscribe for $200 a year, and you get timing that should add hundreds of thousands, if not a million dollars, in increased value to your own stock or mutual fund portfolio over your working lifetime. The "Timing Advantage" shows a 50 year period where The Dow Theory and the Schannep Timing Indicator each had a $3 million dollar advantage. The COMPOSITE Timing Indicator, however, had a $4 million dollar advantage!   Don't you think it's time to Subscribe?

Will future results be the same?

That’s easy: NO. You know the bit about past performance cannot guarantee future results. I would expect, however, that my Timing Indicator, the Dow Theory, and our COMPOSITE Indicator would have similar results as in the past against "Buy & Hold" over the long term in the future. While the future is unknowable, nonetheless some things are predictable: I predict my Indicator, the Dow Theory, and the COMPOSITE Indicator will add value to your investment results AND reduce your risk.  I invite you to join in for the interesting years ahead.