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Recessions

The following shows that BEAR markets have been followed (9 months on average) by recessions 64% of the time:

Bear Market Dates:Recessions:Length (Mos):Lead time Bear Market start to Recession start:% Drop Prior to Recession Start:Total Bear Market Drop:
6/1901-11/039/02 - 8/042315 months-15%46.1
1/06-11/075/07 - 6/081316-2148.5
11/09- 9/111/10 - 1/12242-627.4
9/12 - 7/14 1/13-12/14234-1024.6
11/16-12/178/18 - 3/19721-2540.1
11/19 -8/21 1/20 - 7/21182-1346.6
3/23-10/235/23- 7/24142-818.6
(10/26-11/27)13n/an/an/a
9/29 - 7/32 8/29 - 3/33*43-1089.2
3/37 - 3/38 5/37 - 6/38132-1149.1
11/38-4/42  Nonen/an/a41.3
(2/45-10/45)8n/an/an/a
5/46 - 5/47None22.3
6/48 - 6/4911/48-10/491130-1716.3
(7/53 - 5/54)10n/an/an/a
4/56-10/57 8/57 - 4/58816-719.4
(4/60 - 2/61)10n/an/an/a
12/61- 6/62None/"mild"n/an/a27.1
2/66-10/66 None/but...**n/an/a25.2
12/68- 5/7012/69-11/701112-1935.9
1/73-12/7411/73- 3/751610-1545.1
9/76- 2/78Nonen/an/a26.9
4/81- 8/827/81-11/82163-624.1
8/87-10/87Nonen/an/a36.1
7/90-10/907/90 - 3/9180021.2
7/98-8/98Nonen/an/a19.3
1/2000-3/013/01 - 11/01814-729.7
3/02-10/02Nonen/an/a31.5
10/07-11/0812/07-7/09 192  -946.7
1/09 - 3/09Same19n/an/a27.5
4/11 - 10/11None/but***16.8
10/19 - 12/19None19.8
2/20 - 3/20 2/20 - 4/20 2 0-3737
1/22-10/22None/but (+)21.94
Average:14.45 mos.8.3 mos.-11.89%32.71

*Depression
**Growth recession per Forbes Magazine (1/23/89) Industrial production fell from 1st Q 1967 to 3rd Q of 1967
***”The worst non-recession in U.S. history” second half 2012 per Economic Cycle Research Institute (10/6/2017)

(+) The two consecutive quarters of GDP contractions in Q1 & Q2 2002 were not officially labeled as a recession and were coupled with the 2022 Bear market

The BOTTOM LINE

64% of BEAR Markets have been followed by Recessions. Only 4 (in parenthesis) of the total of 22 Recessions were not immediately preceded by BEAR Markets).

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