Dow…21st Century

      Many have tried to improve on the Dow Theory’s results and failed, however I have made changes that do, indeed, improve those results.  Robert Rhea in his The Dow Theory wrote in 1932 the “the usefulness of the Dow Theory improves with age. Certainly a more comprehensive study of the subject is possible with a 35-year record before us than when Dow worked with the figures of only a few years, while those who use it 20 years from now will have a greater advantage than we now enjoy.”  And now over 80 years later, we have an even greater advantage.

      In my book Dow Theory for the 21st Century, Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results, I illustrate several improvements within the framework of Charles Dow’s original thoughts and premises that would have increased the performance of the traditional "Dow's Theory" over the last 50+ years. The first improvement I added was to begin buying during “capitulation”, a word Charles Dow never uttered but he clearly alluded to with his discussion of the final phase of bear markets when he described “distress selling of sound securities, regardless of their value…..”    Robert Rhea described it asa semi-panic collapse (and) it is wise to cover short position and even perhaps make commitments for long account.   There have only been 15 occasions over the past 50+ years when Capitulation, as we measure and identify it, has occurred and each time a Dow Theory Buy signal has followed, about 4 months later, on average.   I say “we” here because my sons assist me on this Market Letter.   One half of those 15 times occurred within a day or two of the Bear market lows – four were on THE day of the lows. The average was 14 days and 4.6% above the lows; the median was within 3 days and 2% of the lows.

     The second enhancement was also an original Charles Dow idea: that a secondary reaction lasts “from ten days to sixty days” (Wall Street Journal, January 4th, 1902) rather than the widely accepted “from three weeks to as many months”.   Things DO happen faster in the 21st century. This was the thesis of Alvin Toffler’s Future Shock, as well as a premise in my more recent book.  By using Capitulation as the time to start buying and shortening the timeframe for the steps of the Dow Theory to occur, the result is a signal within a month and a half average of Capitulation, and at a 5% better/lower average entry level than the traditional Dow Theory.

      Another advancement was not available in Charles Dow’s day; that is adding the broader Standard & Poors 500 Index, in addition to Dow’s own Industrial Average and the Railroad/ Transportation Average.   The definition of bull and bear markets is also involved:  Charles Dow only had 5 years to work with his 2 indices and concluded that a bull market, or bear market was “the great move covered from four to six years”.  He actually thought that a complete market cycle would last 10 years, with 5 years in a bull market and 5 years in a bear market.  We’ve had 110 more years of historic data than Dow had and now know that Bull markets have averaged less than three years, and Bear markets less than a year and a half. Dow’s expectation was fulfilled, however, 100 years after his death when the 2002-07 bull market lasted exactly 5 years to the day.   My own definition is, indeed, specific:  A minimum +19% advance, or a minimum 16% decline, on both the Dow Jones Industrials and the S&P500.  These percentages are reciprocal numbers of each other, unlike the often used plus or minus 20%. When Bull markets meet the +19% threshold they then go on some 93% of the time to at least a +29% gain.  When Bear markets drop 16% they then go on some 69% of the time to at least a -24% decline.  It should be remembered that Dow’s Theory was a barometer to predict the future course of business activity.  A recession follows my definition of a -16% decline some 67% of the time.  Using the standard -20% figure missed three recessions that the -16% definition captured.  I use the attainment of my definition of bear market as a “stop-loss” point for completing a Sell signal, or the definition of bull market as a “stop-buy” in the case of a Buy signal, when such signals had not already been completed by our interpretation of the Dow Theory for the 21st Century.

You can view the Record of the Dow Theory For The 21st Century below, however the current and Complete table is available for Subscribers only. FYI, the results over the last 63 years have shown a 13.4% annual gain for this Indicator vrs. a 10.6% annual gain for Buy & Hold.

Signal Type $10,000 becomesDateDow Jones Industrials%ChangeStatusDateDow Jones Transports%ChangeDateS&P500%Change
$10,000 12/31/1953280.90
9/14/1953255.49Mkt lows9/14/195390.569/14/195322.71
S=Schannep18-Dec283.5411.0%Bounce1-Dec98.919.2%18-Dec24.9910.0%
Dow Theory
B=Schannep29-Dec278.301.8%Pullback29-Dec93.585.4%29-Dec24.551.8%
      and 'Traditional"
BUY 100%$10,001 1/6/1954283.96Breakup1/19/195499.431/5/195425.1
"S" (B-1)4/6/1956521.05Bull Market High5/9/1956181.233/20/195648.87
28-May468.8110.0%Pullback28-May161.610.8%28-May44.19.8%
2-Aug520.9511.1%Bounce/new high25-Jul171.376.0%2-Aug49.7412.8%
SELL100%$18,895 2/5/1957469.96Breakdown22-Aug161.282/5/195743.89
"S" (S-2)10/22/1957419.79Bear Market Low12/24/195795.6717-Dec39.42
2/4/1958458.659.3%Bounce2/4/1958111.1616.2%2/4/195842.467.7%
25-Feb436.894.7%Pullback7-Apr100.679.4%25-Feb40.614.4%
BUY 100%$19,523 4/21/1958450.72Breakup21-Apr111.611-Mar42.51
"S" (B-1)8/3/1959678.1Mkt highs7/8/1959173.568/3/195960.71
22-Sep616.459.1%Pullback17-Nov146.6315.5%22-Sep55.149.2%
1/5/1960685.4711.2%New high/Bounce1/5/1960160.439.4%1/5/196060.399.5%
SELL100%$28,127 2/16/1960611.33Breakdown3-Mar142.9816-Feb54.73
"S" (S-2)25-Oct566.05Mkt lows29-Sep123.3725-Oct52.3
$28,777 12/30/1960615.89Year-end level
2/2/1961653.6215.5%Bounce1/18/1961144.898.3%2/2/196162.319.1%
13-Feb637.142.5%Pullback13-Feb139.693.6%13-Feb61.141.9%
BUY 100%$28,870 2/20/1961653.65Breakup23-Feb144.9120-Feb62.36
"S" (B-1)12/13/1961734.91Bull Market High11-Oct152.9212-Dec72.64
$33,107 12/29/1961731.14Year-end level
1/29/1962689.926.1%Pullback20-Dec140.668.0%1/29/196267.96.5%
15-Mar723.544.9%Bounce2/2/1962149.836.5%15-Mar71.064.7%
SELL100%$31,332 4/12/1962685.67Breakdown26-Apr140.2812-Apr67.71
"S" (S-1)
Capitulation$31,494 22-Jun539.1922-Jun116.0522-Jun52.68
BUY 25%
6/26/1962535.76Bear Market Low25-Jun115.8926-Jun52.32
12-Jul590.2710.2%Bounce16-Jul125.498.3%12-Jul58.0310.9%
BUY to50%$32,028 18-Jul571.243.2%3% Pullback*18-Jul122.582.3%18-Jul56.23.2%
30-Jul591.44Breakup27-Aug126.1631-Jul58.23
BUY100%$32,814  7/31/62 597.93
"S" (B-1)$36,333 12/31/1962652.1Year-end level
$43,862 12/31/1963762.95Year-end level
$51,859 12/31/1964874.13Year-end level
$59,359 12/31/1965969.26Year-end level
2/9/1966995.15Bull Market High2/15/1966271.722/9/196694.06
15-Mar911.088.4%Pullback15-Mar243.610.3%15-Mar87.357.16%
21-Apr954.734.8%Bounce20-Apr265.979.2%21-Apr92.425.2%
SELL100%$55,888 5/9/1966902.83Breakdown5-May240.969-May86.32
"S" (S-1)10/7/1966744.32Bear Market Low7-Oct184.347-Oct73.2
16-Nov820.8710.3%Bounce16-Nov208.7913.3%16-Nov82.3712.5%
2-Dec789.473.8%Pullback22-Nov199.544.4%22-Nov79.673.3%
BUY 100%$57,512 12/13/1966816.7Breakup13-Dec208.8212-Dec83
"S" (B-3)$55,425 12/30/1966785.69Year-end level
8/9/1967926.72Mkt highs8/4/1967274.498/4/196795.83
30-Aug893.723.6%Pullback22-Aug256.066.7%27-Aug92.643.3%
25-Sep943.085.5%New high/Bounce18-Sep265.113.5%25-Sep97.595.3%
SELL100%$62,765 11/2/1967864.85Breakdown10-Oct254.592-Nov92.34
"S" (S-2)$63,214 12/29/1967905.11Year-end level
3/21/1968825.13Mkt lows3/5/1968214.583/5/196887.72
15-Jul923.7211.9%Bounce8-Jul269.6125.6%11-Jul102.3916.7%
9-Aug869.655.9%Pullback9-Aug245.768.8%2-Aug96.635.6%
9-Sep924.98Breakup1-Oct270.2424-Sep102.59
BUY 100%$65,571 9/24/1968938.28
"S" (B-1)12/3/1968985.21Bull Market High1-Dec279.4829-Nov108.37
$66,518 12/31/1968943.75Year-end level
1/8/1969921.256.5%Pullback1/13/1969260.047.0%1/13/1969100.47.4%
13-Feb952.73.4%Bounce/new high7-Feb279.887.6%13-Feb103.713.3%
SELL100%$64,905 2/20/1969916.65Breakdown25-Feb257.0720-Feb99.79
"S" (S-2)29-Jul801.96Mkt lows30-Jul193.1929-Jul89.48
2-Sep837.784.5%Bounce22-Aug202.024.6%22-Aug95.927.2%
8-Sep811.843.1%Pullback9-Oct194.723.6%8-Oct92.673.4%
BUY 100%$67,555 10/16/1969838.77Breakup27-Oct202.3716-Oct96.37
"S" (B-1)10-Nov863.05Mkt highs28-Oct202.4510-Nov98.33
17-Dec769.9310.8%Pullback16-Dec169.4316.3%17-Dec89.29.3%
$65,021 12/31/1969800.36Year-end level
1/5/1970811.315.4%Bounce1/5/1970183.318.2%1/5/197093.464.8%
SELL100%$62,645 1/26/1970768.88Breakdown26-Jan168.9823-Jan89.07
"B" (S-1)
Capitulation$63,988 25-May641.3625-May133.8725-May70.25
BUY 25%
5/26/1970631.16Bear Market Low26-May131.5326-May69.29
3-Jun713.8613.1%Bounce3-Jun146.9811.7%3-Jun78.5213.4%
BUY to50%$65,475 10-Jun694.352.7%3% Pullback*10-Jun141.443.8%10-Jun75.483.9%
7-Jul669.367.1%Pullback/new low7-Jul116.6920.6%7-Jul71.239.3%
16-Jul723.44Breakup28-Sep148.2121-Aug79.24
BUY 100%$68,563 8/21/1970745.41
 "S" (B-2)$78,238 12/31/1970Year-end level
4/28/1971950.82Mkt highs4/28/1971232.794/28/1971104.77
28-Jun873.18.2%Pullback28-Jun208.8910.3%22-Jun97.596.9%
12-Jul903.43.5%Bounce12-Jul220.215.4%12-Jul100.823.3%
SELL100%$82,910 7/28/1971872.01Breakdown28-Jul208.0628-Jul97.07
"B" (S-1)10-Aug839.59Mkt lows4-Aug203.619-Aug93.53
8-Sep920.939.7%Bounce7-Sep248.3322.0%9-Sep101.348.4%
23-Nov797.9713.4%New lows/Pullbck23-Nov208.4316.1%23-Nov90.1611.0%
$84,464 12/31/1971890.2Year-end level
BUY 100%$84,549 1/12/1972910.82Breakup1/12/1972249.0820-Dec101.55
"S" (B-2)$97,582 12/29/19721020.02
1/11/19731051.7Bull Market High12/11/1972240.411/11/1973120.24
8-Feb967.198.0%Pullback8-Feb202.115.9%8-Feb113.165.9%
13-Feb996.793.1%Bounce12-Feb207.132.5%13-Feb116.783.2%
SELL100%$91,741 2/26/1973953.79Breakdown21-Feb201.2126-Feb112.19
"S" (S-1)
$97,140 12/31/1973850.86Year-end level
Capitulation$101,841 8/23/1974686.88/23/1974143.078/23/197471.55
BUY 25%
Capitulation$99,652 30-Sep607.8730-Sep128.4830-Sep63.54
BUY to50%
4-Oct584.56Mkt lows3-Oct125.933-Oct62.28
14-Oct673.515.2%Bounce14-Oct150.6519.6%14-Oct72.7416.8%
BUY to75%$102,735 16-Oct642.294.6%3% Pullback*16-Oct1453.7%16-Oct70.333.3%
BUY 100%$106,124 10/21/1974669.82Breakup21-Oct152.4321-Oct73.5
 "S" (B-1)12/6/1974577.6Bear Mkt Low/Not16-Dec138.316-Dec65.01
$98,771 12/31/1974616.24Year-end level
$142,830 12/31/1975852.41Year-end level
9/21/19761014.79Bull Market High7/14/1976231.279/21/1976107.83
12-Oct932.358.1%Pullback12-Oct203.8511.9%22-Oct99.967.3%
1-Nov966.093.6%Bounce/high5/18/1977246.6421.0%1-Nov103.13.1%
SELL100%$160,992 11/9/1976930.77Breakdown10/24/1977201.748-Nov99.6
"S" (S-1)$162,024 12/31/19761004.65Year-end level
$170,275 12/30/1977831.17Year-end level
2/28/1978742.72Bear Market Low3/9/1978199.313/6/197886.9
17-May858.3715.6%Bounce22-May231.316.1%17-May99.614.6%
26-May831.693.1%Pullback26-May223.73.3%26-May96.583.0%
BUY 100%$174,734 6/5/1978863.83Breakup6-Jun231.355-Jun99.95
"S" (B-1)9/11/1978907.74Bull Market High8-Sep261.4912-Sep106.99
20-Sep857.165.6%Pullback22-Sep241.587.6%27-Sep101.665.0%
11-Oct901.425.2%Bounce12-Oct250.153.5%11-Oct105.393.7%
SELL100%$178,550 10/17/1978866.34Breakdown17-Oct237.4417-Oct101.26
"S" (S-1)14-Nov785.26Mkt lows14-Nov205.4914-Nov92.49
6-Dec821.94.7%Bounce6-Dec218.26.2%6-Dec97.495.4%
18-Dec787.514.2%Pullback/BearLow20-Dec203.456.8%18-Dec93.444.2%
$181,418 12/29/1978805.01Year-end level
BUY 100%$181,627 1/4/1979826.14Breakup1/15/1979218.7926-Dec97.52
"S" (B-1)$194,685 12/31/1979838.74Year-end level
SELL100%$179,472 3/26/1980762.1216.0%Bear Definit'n Met3/26/1980241.043/26/198098.6816.7%
"S"27-Mar759.98Mkt Lows27-Mar233.6927-Mar98.22
11-Apr791.554.2%Bounce10-Apr253.468.5%10-Apr104.085.0%
21-Apr759.134.1%BearLow/Pullbck21-Apr235.27.2%21-Apr99.84.1%
BUY 100%$180,742 4/24/1980797.1Breakup13-May253.8324-Apr104.4
$226,796 12/31/1980963.99Year-end level
"S" (B-1)4/27/19811024.05Bull Market High4/16/1981447.383/25/1981137.11
11-May963.445.9%Pullback11-May410.288.3%11-May129.715.4%
15-Jun1011.995.0%Bounce1-Jun430.925.0%27-May133.773.1%
SELL100%$231,752 7/2/1981959.19Breakdown2-Jul409.62-Jul128.64
"B" (S-1)$245,927 12/31/1981875Year-end level
8/12/1982776.92Bear Market Low8/12/1982292.128/12/1982102.42
BUY 100%$263,961 9/3/1982925.1319.1%Bull Definit'n Met3-Sep369.683-Sep122.6819.8%
"S" $304,434 12/31/19821046.54Year-end level
11/29/19831287.2Mkt highs11/22/1963612.5710/11/1983172.65
15-Dec1236.793.9%Pullback22-Dec587.074.2%8-Nov161.766.3%
$382,670 12/30/19831258.64Year-end level
1/6/19841286.644.0%Bounce/new high1/9/1984612.634.4%21-Nov167.913.8%
SELL100%$378,983 1/24/19841242.88Breakdown24-Jan585.2915-Dec161.67
"S" (S-2)24-Jul1086.57Mkt lows25-Jul444.037/24/1984147.82
6-Aug1204.6210.9%Bounce6-Aug528.5719.0%7-Aug162.7110.1%
8-Aug1198.980.5%Pullback8-Aug511.383.3%8-Aug161.750.6%
BUY 100%$379,526 8/9/19841224.05Breakup18-Oct542.539-Aug165.54
"B" (B-1)$400,661 12/31/19841211.57Year-end level
$533,653 12/31/19851546.67Year-end level
$677,180 12/31/19861895.95Year-end level
8/25/19872722.42Bull Market High8/14/19871101.168/25/1987336.77
21-Sep2492.828.4%Pullback21-Sep1005.88.7%21-Sep310.547.8%
2-Oct2640.995.9%Bounce2-Oct1064.415.8%5-Oct328.085.6%
SELL100%$880,592 10/14/19872412.7Breakdown15-Oct980.2412-Oct309.39
"S" (S-1)
Capitulation$881,265 10/19/19871738.74Bear Market Low26-Oct674.0119-Oct224.84
BUY 25%
2-Nov2014.0915.8%Bounce2-Nov784.3816.4%2-Nov255.7513.7%
BUY to50%$904,324 9-Nov1900.25.6%3% Pullback*9-Nov749.864.4%9-Nov243.174.9%
Capitulation$877,590 3-Dec1776.533-Dec673.573-Dec225.21
BUY to75%4-Dec223.92
$940,557 12/31/19871938.83Year-end level
BUY 100%$974,698 1/5/19882031.5Breakup1/7/1988789.431/4/1988255.94
"S" (B-1)$1,077,184 12/30/1988216.57Year-end level
9/1/19892752.09Mkt Highs9/5/19891532.019/1/1989353.73
25-Sep2659.193.4%Pullback26-Sep1424.967.0%14-Sep343.163.0%
9-Oct2791.415.0%New high/Bounce9-Oct1518.496.6%9-Oct359.84.8%
SELL100%$1,310,460 10/13/19892569.26Breakdown13-Oct1406.2913-Oct333.62
"B" (S-2)$1,330,457 12/29/19892753.2Year-end level
1/30/19902543.24Mkt lows1/30/19901031.831/30/1990322.98
17-Apr2765.778.7%Bounce27-Mar1192.5715.6%16-Apr344.746.7%
27-Apr2645.054.4%Pullback27-Apr1128.25.4%27-Apr329.114.5%
BUY 100%$1,365,615 5/11/19902801.58Breakup4-Jun1207.8511-May352
"S" (B-1)15-Jun2935.89Mkt Highs6-Jun1212.774-Jun367.4
26-Jun2842.333.2%Pullback5-Jul1131.026.7%26-Jun352.064.2%
7/16/19902999.755.5%Bull High/Bounce16-Jul1189.65.2%16-Jul368.955.2%
SELL100%$1,408,327 8/2/19902864.6Breakdown30-Jul11252-Aug351.41
"S" (S-2)
Capitulation$1,414,028 23-Aug2483.4223-Aug861.3123-Aug307.06
BUY 25%
10/11/19902365.1Bear Market Low17-Oct821.9311-Oct295.46
19-Oct2520.796.6%Bounce22-Oct883.697.5%22-Oct314.766.5%
BUY to50%$1,428,871 25-Oct2484.161.5%3% Pullback*25-Oct851.333.7%25-Oct310.171.5%
BUY 100%$1,448,769 11/12/19902540.35Breakup5-Dec903.6712-Nov319.48
"S" (B-1)$1,509,845 12/31/19902633.66Year-end level
$1,873,814 12/31/19913168.83Year-end level
$2,009,032 12/31/19923301.11Year-end level
$2,349.02 12/31/19933754.09Year-end level
$2,461,799 12/30/19943834.44Year-end level
$3,362,747 12/29/19955117.12Year-end level
$4,325,936 12/31/19966448.27Year-end level
$5,394,266 12/31/19977908.25Year-end level
5/13/19989211.84Mkt Highs4/16/19983686.024/22/19981130.54
15-Jun8627.936.3%Pullback2-Jun3259.311.6%15-Jun1077.014.7%
7/17/19989337.978.2%Bull Highs/Bounce14-Jul3618.7311.0%17-Jul1184.7510.0%
SELL100%$5,844,497 8/4/19988487.31Breakdown29-Jul3244.934-Aug1072.12
"B" (S-2)
Capitulation$5,864,536 31-Aug7539.07Bear Market Low4-Sep2616.7531-Aug957.28
BUY 25%
8-Sep8020.786.4%Bounce8-Sep2749.35.1%8-Sep1023.466.9%
BUY to50%$5,885,703 10-Sep7615.545.1%3% Pullback*10-Sep2631.514.3%10-Sep980.194.2%
BUY 100%$6,015,227 9/14/19987945.35Breakup14-Sep2805.1414-Sep1029.72
"S" (B-1)$6.985,41112/31/19989181.43Year-end level
5/13/199911107.19Mkt Highs5/12/19993783.55/13/19991367.56
27-May10466.935.8%Pullback25-Jun3316.1112.4%27-May1281.416.3%
16-Jul11209.847.1%Mkt Highs/Bounce2-Jul3515.996.0%16-Jul1418.7810.7%
2-Aug10645.96Pullback/New Low11-Aug3130.5310-Aug1281.43
25-Aug11326.04Mkt High/Bounce25-Aug3309.2525-Aug1381.79
SELL100%$7,940,454 9/23/199910318.59Break 1st Pullback23-Sep2895.9823-Sep1280.41
"B" (S-3)$8,043,550 12/31/199911497.12Year-end level
1/14/200011722.98Bull Market High16-Nov3099.673/24/20001527.46
$8,493,742 12/29/200010786.85Year-end level
Capitulation$8,727,069 9/20/20018376.219/20/20012033.869/21/2001965.8
BUY 25%
9/21/20018235.81Bear Market Low20-Sep2033.8621-Sep965.8
26-Oct9545.1712.9%Bounce11-Oct2314.813.8%11-Oct1097.4313.6%
BUY to50%$8,941,278 30-Oct9121.984.4%3% Pullback*30-Oct2195.265.2%30-Oct1059.793.4%
BUY 100%$9,174,531 11/6/20019591.12Breakup8-Nov2320.985-Nov1102.84
 "S" (B-1)$9,614,041 12/31/200110021.5Year-end level
3/19/200210635.25Bull Market High3/4/20023049.963/19/20021170.29
6-May9808.047.8%Pullback10-May2643.113.3%7-May1049.4910.3%
17-May10353.085.6%Bounce17-May2798.365.9%17-May1106.595.4%
SELL100%$9,386,468 6/3/20029709.79Breakdown25-Jun2627.923-Jun1040.68
"S" (S-1)
Capitulation$9,405,732 19-Jul8019.2619-Jul2332.1819-Jul847.75
BUY 25%
23-Jul7702.34Mkt lows23-Jul2160.3523-Jul797.7
31-Jul8736.5913.4%Bounce30-Jul2389.5110.6%31-Jul911.6214.3%
BUY to50%$9,498,224 2-Aug8313.134.8%3% Pullback*1-Aug2308.263.4%2-Aug864.245.2%
BUY 100%$9,749,888 8/14/20028743.31Breakup21-Aug2432.2114-Aug919.62
  "S" (B-2)22-Aug9053.64Mkt highs22-Aug2463.9622-Aug962.7
5-Sep8283.78.5%Pullback5-Sep2204.2610.5%3-Sep878.028.8%
10-Sep8602.613.8%Bounce11-Sep2297.324.2%10-Sep909.583.6%
SELL75%HOLD 25% (Capitulation level)$9,171,048 9/17/20028207.55Breakdown16-Sep2203.69.17-Sep873.52
"B" (S-1)
Capitulation$8,922,251 10/9/20027286.27Bear Market Low9-Oct2013.029-Oct776.76
BUY to50%
21-Oct8538.2417.2%Bounce23-Oct2341.5516.3%21-Oct899.7215.8%
BUY to75%$9,594,252 29-Oct8368.942.0%3% Pullback*29-Oct2248.234.0%29-Oct882.152.0%
BUY 100%$9,771,715 11/4/20028571.6Breakup5-Nov2344.461-Nov900.96
"S" (B-1)27-Nov8931.68Mkt highs6-Nov2413.7127-Nov938.87
27-Dec8303.787.0%Pullback26-Nov2268.356.0%27-Dec875.46.8%
$9,543,548 12/31/20028341.63Year-end level
1/14/20038842.626.5%Bounce/New high1/6/20032421.716.7%1/14/2003931.666.4%
SELL100%$9,315,976 1/24/20038131Breakdown22-Jan2213.6224-Jan861.4
"B" (S-2)11-Mar7524.06Mktlow/Bear low11-Mar1942.1911-Mar800.73
21-Mar8521.9713.3%Bounce21-Mar2263.4916.5%25-Mar895.7911.9%
31-Mar7992.136.2%Pullback31-Mar2131.215.8%31-Mar846.185.3%
BUY 100%$9,340,807 4/22/20038484.99Breakup15-Apr2316,6222-Apr911.37
"S" (B-1)$11,677,337 12/31/200310453.92Year-end level
2/11/200410737.7Mkt highs1/22/20043080.322/11/20041157.76
24-Mar10048.236.4%Pullback22-Mar2750.810.7%24-Mar1091.195.7%
6-Apr10570.815.2%Bounce22-Apr3006.769.3%5-Apr1150.575.4%
SELL100%$11,238,687 5/10/20049990.02Breakdownnone10-May1087.12
"S" (S-1)12-Aug9814.59Mkt Lows6-Aug2966.0812-Aug1063.23
14-Sep10318.165.1%Bounce6-Oct3388.7214.3%6-Oct1142.057.4%
25-Oct9749.495.5%New low/Pullback13-Oct3282.433.1%25-Jan1094.84.1%
BUY 100%$11,316,500 11/3/200410137.05Breakup21-Oct3431.693-Nov1143.2
"S" (B-2)$12,076,845 12/31/200410783.01Year-end level
$12,285,329 12/30/200510717.5Year-end level
$14,596,630 12/29/200612463.15Year-end level
  7/19/0714000.41Mkt highs 7/19/075446.497/19/20071553.08
3-Aug13181.95.6%Pullback3-Aug4873.8110.5%3-Aug1433.067.7%
8-Aug13657.863.6%Bounce8-Aug5079.394.2%8-Aug1497.494.5%
SELL100%$15,459,338 8/14/200713028.92Breakdown8/14/20074850.258/14/20071426.54
"S" (S-1)10/9/200714164.53Bull Market Highs5-Oct4997.1710-Oct1562.47
$15,669,192 12/31/200713264.82Year-end level
3/10/200811740.15Mkt Lows1/17/20084140.293/17/20081276.6
1-Apr12654.367.8%Bounce3-Apr4999.9316.5%7-Apr1372.547.5%
14-Apr12302.062.8%Pullback9-Apr4803.13.9%14-Apr1328.323.2%
BUY 100%$15,754,027 4/18/200812849.36Breakup16-Apr5073.4118-Apr1390.33
"B" (B-1)2-May13058.2Mkt highs5-Jun5492.9519-May1426.63
11-Jun12083.777.5%Pullback11-Jun5038.978.3%11-Jun1335.496.4%
13-Jun12307.351.9%Bounce19-Jun5292.745.0%16-Jun1360.141.8%
SELL100%$14,581,346 6/20/200811842.69Breakdown24-Jun4998.3520-Jun1317.93
"S" (S-1)
Capitulation$14,640,901 7-Oct9447.117-Oct3898.157-Oct996.23
BUY 25%
27-Oct8175.77Mkt Lows27-Oct3364.9827-Oct848.92
4-Nov9625.2617.7%Bounce4-Nov4071.8121.0%4-Nov1005.7518.5%
BUY to50%$14,359,945 6-Nov8695.799.7%3% Pullback*6-Nov3605.5611.5%6-Nov904.8810.0%
Capitulation$14,022,493 12-Nov8282.6612-Nov3474.0612-Nov852.3
BUY to75%
Stop-Out Pullback25%$13,666,223 11/19/20087997.28Newer Mkt Lows all three indices reverses partial Dow Theory Buy back to capitulation Buys19-Nov3141.5219-Nov806.58
 HOLD50%
"S" (S-5)
11/20/20087552.29Bear Market Lows20-Nov2988.9920-Nov752.44
28-Nov8829.0416.9%Bounce -1 wk due to capitulation28-Nov3512.217.5%28-Nov896.2419.1%
BUY to75%$14,034,554 2-Dec8419.094.6%3% Pullback*2-Dec3315.865.6%2-Dec848.815.3%
BUY 100%$14,684,018 12/8/20088934.18Breakup8-Dec3589.638-Dec909.7
"S" (B-1)$14,452,391 12/31/20088776.3Year-end level
1/2/20099034.69Bull Market Highs1/6/20093717.261/6/2009934.7
20-Jan7949.0912.0%Pullback23-Jan2965.8920.2%22-Jan827.511.5%
28-Jan8375.455.4%Bounce28-Jan3137.655.8%28-Jan874.095.6%
SELL100%$13,218,814 1/30/20098000.86Breakdown30-Jan2965.6930-Jan825.88
"S" (S-1)
Capitulation$13,220,560 2/23/20097114.7823-Feb2586.723-Feb743.33
BUY 25%
3/9/20096547.05Bear Market Lows9-Mar2146.899-Mar676.53
18-Mar7486.5814.4%Bounce19-Mar2637.2722.8%18-Mar794.3517.4%
BUY to50%$13,307,001 20-Mar7278.382.8%3% Pullback*20-Mar2516.964.6%20-Mar768.543.2%
BUY 100%$13,764,119 3/23/20097775.86Breakup23-Mar2715.2123-Mar822.92
"S" (S-1)$18,915,384 12/31/200910428.05Year-end level
4/26/201011205.03Mkt highs5/3/20104806.014/23/20101217.28
26-May9974.4511.0%Pullback20-May4160.5113.4%26-May1067.9612.3%
3-Jun10255.282.8%Bounce27-May4381.985.3%3-Jun1102.833.3%
SELL100%$18,226,454 6/4/20109931.97Breakdown4-Jun4157.174-Jun1064.88
"B" (S-1)2-Jul9686.48Mkt Lows6-Jul3906.012-Jul1022.58
9-Aug10698.7510.5%Bounce9-Aug4516.3515.6%9-Aug1127.7910.3%
26-Aug9985.816.7%Pullback24-Aug4082.519.6%31-Aug1049.337.0%
BUY 100%$18,234,710 9/20/201010753.62Breakup27-Sep4519.4220-Sep1142.71
$19,777,476 12/31/201011577.51Year-end level
"S" (B-1)4/29/201112810.49Bull Mkt Highs5/10/20115527.529-Apr1363.61
15-Jun11897.277.1%Pullback10-Jun5060.598.4%15-Jun1265.427.2%
21-Jul12724.417.0%Bounce7-Jul5618.2511.0%7-Jul1353.226.9%
SELL100%$20,581,432 8/2/201111886.62Breakdown2-Aug4942.272-Aug1254.05
"B" (S-2)
Capitulation$20,581,510 8/8/201110809.85Mkt lows8-Aug4221.68-Aug1119.46
BUY 25%
15-Aug11482.97.1%Bounce15-Aug4684.447.4%15-Aug1204.497.6%
BUY to50%$20,671,672 18-Aug10990.584.3%3% Pullback*18-Aug4299.558.2%18-Aug1140.655.3%
BUY 100%$21,196,796 8/29/201111539.25Breakupn/a29-Aug1210.08
"S" (B-2)
31-Aug11613.53Mkt highs31-Aug4683.9631-Aug1218.89
22-Sep10733.837.8%Pullback22-Sep4149.9411.0%22-Sep1129.567.3%
27-Sep11190.614.3%Bounce27-Sep4380.275.6%27-Sep1175.384.1%
Sell 75%$19,626,724 10/3/201110655.3Breakdown 3-Oct4038.733-Oct1099.23
HOLD 25% (Capitulation level)Bear Mkt Lows
"S" (S-1)28-Oct12231.1114.8%Bounce27-Oct5025.0924.4%28-Oct1285.0816.9%
BUY to50%$20,100,220 1-Nov11657.964.7%3% Pullback*1-Nov4766.077.1%1-Nov1218.285.2%
23-Dec12294Breakup23-Dec5053.291/10/20121292.08
$20,630,224 12/30/201112217.56Year-end level
BUY 100%$20,844,880 1/10/201212462.47
"S" (B-1)5/1/201213279.32Mkt High3-Feb5368.032-Apr1419.04
18-May12369.389.1%Pullback18-May4873.769,2%18-May1295.228.7%
29-May12580.691.7%Bounce29-May5138.615.4%29-May1332.422.8%
SELL100%$20,488,452 6/1/201212118.15Breakdown4-Jun4847.731-Jun1278.04
"B" (S-1)4-Jun12101.46Mkt Lows4-Jun4847.731-Jun1278.04
19-Jun12837.336.1%Bounce19-Jun5250.748.3%19-Jun1357.986.3%
25-Jun12502.662.6%Pullback25-Jun4985.385.1%25-Jun1313.723.3%
BUY 100%$20,488,924 29-Jun12880.09Breakup5-Jul5249.1229-Jun1362.16
"S" (B-1)5-Oct13610.14Mkt High5-Jul5249.1214-Sep1465.77
24-Oct13077.323.9%Pullback28-Sep4892.626.8%24-Oct1408.753.9%
6-Nov13245.681.3%Bounce6-Nov5203.646.4%6-Nov1428.391.4%
SELL100%$20,777,328 11/7/201212932.73Breakdown16-Nov4891.277-Nov1394.53
"S" (S-1)15-Nov12542.38Mkt Lows16-Nov4891.2715-Nov1353.33
18-Dec13350.966.4%Bounce20-Dec5357.819.5%18-Dec1446.796.9%
28-Dec12938.113.1%Pullback28-Dec5220.982.2%28-Dec1402.433.1%
$20,778,250 12/31/201213104.14
BUY 100%$20,781,0521/2/201313412.55Breakup1/2/20135435.741/2/20131462.42
"S" (B-1)5/2115409.39Mkt High5/176549.165/211669.16
6/514960.592.9%Pullback6/56138.366.3%6/51608.903.6%
6/1815318.232.4%Bounce6/186358.563.6%6/181651.812.7%
SELL 100%$23,146,3506/20/201314758.32Breakdown6/206142.126/201588.19
"S" (S-1)6/2414659.56Mkt Lows6/245990.796/241573.09
BUY 100%$23,147,0247/18/1315548.547/186579.057/181689.37
"S" (B-5)$24,938,36212/31/201316576.66Year-end level
12/26/201418053.71Mkt High12/29/20149217.4412/29/142090.57
$27,431,08612/31/1417823.07Year-end level
1/15/201517320.714.1%Pullback1/15/20158655.946.1%1/15/20151992.674.7%
1/22/201517813.982.8%Bounce1/22/20159143.525.6%1/22/20152063.153.5%
SELL100%$25,735,7388/21/201516459.75Breakdown1/20/20158649.328/21/20151970.89
"S" (S-2)8/25/201515666.44Mkt Lows8/25/20157466.978/25/20151867.61
9/16/201516739.956.9%Bounce9/17/20158215.4410.0%9/16/20151995.316.9%
9/28/201516001.894.4%Pullback9/28/20157675.876.6%9/28/20151881.775.9%
BUY 100%$25,737,68210/7/201516912.29Breakup10/9/20158253.1610/07/20151995.83
"S" (B-1)11/3/201517918.15Mkt High10/23/20158295.5811/3/20152109.79
11/13/201517245.243.8%Pullback11/16/20158010.273.4%11/13/20152023.044.1%
12/1/201517888.353.7%Bounce11/20/20158301.803.6%12/1/20152102.633.9%
SELL 100%$26,389,38012/11/201517265.21Breakdown12/11/20157624.6412/11/20152012.37
"S" (S-1)$26,390,24812/31/201517425.03Year-end level
2/11/201615660.18New Lows2/11/20166625.531/20/20161829.08
4/1/201617792.7513.6%Bounce3/18/20168075.2021.9%4/1/20162072.7813.3%
4/7/2016
17541.961.4%Pullback4/7/20167652.835.2%4/7/20162041.911.5%
BUY 100%$26,394,6284/13/201617908.28Breakup4/19/20168106.144/13/20162082.42
"S" (B-1)4/20/201618096.27New High4/20/20168109.194/20/20162102.40
5/19/201617435.403.6%Pullback5/13/20167507.317.4%5/19/20162040.042.9%
6/23/201618011.073.3%Bounce6/8/20167900.684.2%6/8/20162119.123.9%
SELL 100%$25,788,7246/24/201617400.75Breakdown6/24/20167320.556/24/20162037.41
"S" (S-1)6/27/201617140.24New Lows6/27/20167093.406/27/20162000.54
7/20/201618595.038.5%Bounce7/14/20168015.9313.0%7/22/20162175.038.7%
8/2/201618313.771.5%Pullback8/2/20167648.444.6%8/2/20162157.030.8%
BUY 100%$25,790,7168/11/201618613.52Breakup8/5/20162182.87
"S" (B-1)



Latest News

The Telegraph of London quotes "Jack Schannep, author of Dow Theory for the 21st Century, there are some key theories that have to be accepted to successfully apply the process." DJIA: 22,997 Read the article HERE

Mark Hulbert of MarketWatch: For the first time in over three years, each of the three major Dow stock market averages has just hit a new all-time high.  These joint new highs are “very encouraging.”  DJIA 22,405  Read the article HERE.

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