Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (III)

posted on: May 22, 2019

Performance after capitulation: Further advances and declines At last I found some time to pen a new post concerning capitulation. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. In this post, we will describe what happens after capitulation has occurred. Do we get strong rallies after capitulation? If yes, then the indicator has some […]

Dow theory Update for April 5st: Back to divergent interpretations of the Dow Theory

posted on: April 5, 2019

Trends unchanged for US stocks, gold, silver and their miners Cervantes’ master piece “Don Quixote of la Mancha” starts as follows: “In a village of La Mancha, the name of which I have no desire to call to mind, there lived not long since one of those gentlemen that kept a lance in the lance-rack….” […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (II)

posted on: March 22, 2019

Definition of capitulation. Betting for a mean reversion We continue with our saga concerning “capitulation”. I feel this saga is going to keep me busy for quite some time. Here you have the link to the first post. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html Capitulation is a bottom detector tool devised by Jack Schannep. Thus, capitulation is by nature mean […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (I)

posted on: March 8, 2019

How to catch falling knives without cutting yourself There is a German saying which reads “Klasse statt Masse” (class instead of mass, so better little and good than a lot and of bad quality) Since I don´t have much time to write, and, hence I cannot do lots of “Masse”, I hope that the next […]

Dow Theory Update for February 4: Divergent interpretations of the “Classical” Dow Theory

posted on: February 4, 2019

Trying to make sense of them This is a long post and a quite difficult one to digest. However, if you want to really understand how secondary reactions are to be appraised under a strict reading of the Rhea/Classical Dow Theory, please bear with me. Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that one of […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: The two variables accounting for the Dow Theory out and underperformance versus buy and hold

posted on: January 17, 2019

It was a long time of not posting “philosophical” and introspective aspects concerning the Dow Theory. While it may seem evident to many, this post is the result of some nights of serious introspection. I wanted to completely isolate the factors (variables) that account for the Dow Theory outperformanceversus buy and hold (BAH). This is […]

Dow Theory Update for April 17: More thoughts concerning the recently demised bull swing and the current primary bear market signal

posted on: April 17, 2018

US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on April 9, as was explained here, and more in depth here Thus, the primary bull market that was signaled on November 21st, 2016 has come to an end. At this moment we cannot know whether the current primary bear market signal is going to be a “good […]

Dow Theory Update for April 10: Dissecting the primary bear market signal for US stocks given on April 9th

posted on: April 10, 2018

Primary and secondary trend for precious metals and their ETFs unchanged US STOCKS Trading is not easy. When I took the buy signal given on a now distant November 21st, 2016 (more about that signal here and here.), I was fearful, as a recent whipsaw prompted me to think that the then new signal was […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Isolating the value of the principle of confirmation and trend following

posted on: August 25, 2017

How much valuable is confirmation percentagewise? And trend following? It’s been many months without writing a post with some original thoughts which may be useful to the followers of this blog. For the last few months I have been confined to merely analyzing the markets (which in itself is OK and takes time) without any […]

Dow Theory Update for December 6: More on the primary bull market signal

posted on: December 6, 2016

Trends unchanged for gold, silver and their miners: that is bearish On November 21st, 2016 a primary bull market was signaled, as was reported here Let’s further delve into the signal. First of all, let’s take a look at the charts The highs of the last primary bull market (red horizontal lines) were bettered […]

Dow Theory Update for November 24th: More about the primary bull market signal for US Stocks

posted on: November 24, 2016

How Jack and Bart Schannep avoided the primary bear market trap In my last post I briefly mentioned that the primary trend had turned bullish as per Schannep’s Dow Theory. As explained, the primary trend was already bullish according to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory, as was explained and summarized here Before continuing, I’d like to […]

Dow Theory Update for November 11: The current trend as per the classical/Rhea Dow Theory (III)

posted on: November 11, 2016

Alternative (and truest ) “classical” interpretation as per Page 77 of Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” Please mind that I am writing before the close. Things might change. In the past two post I analyzed the trend as per the classical/Rhea Dow Theory. The first post showed Schannep’s interpretation (not of his own “Dow Theory” […]