Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Update for January 8: How long will it take for the next primary bull market signal to be flashed?

posted on: January 8, 2016

Trends unchanged Yesterday, January 7th, the US stock market made lower confirmed lows. As I have explained in the last two posts (here and here), the primary bear market is in full gear and no secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market has occurred yet. In a past post, I explained that following a […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Additional thoughts concerning further declines following Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bear market signals

posted on: December 16, 2015

Updated statistical record Last Friday 11th a primary bear market was signaled for US stocks. More about the entrails of this primary bear market signal here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html I wrote that investors better heed primary bear market signals as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory, as the statistical record compiled by Schannep in his book (page 108) […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under stress-test (I)

posted on: December 7, 2015

A new Dow Theory saga is being started Introduction While followers of this Dow Theory blog may be inclined to think that I am a true believer in the Dow Theory, and hence, to some extent blinded and unable to see its flaws (if any), truth is that I am skeptical of everything when it […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Richard Russell RIP

posted on: December 1, 2015

I have just known that legendary Dow Theorist Richard Russell passed away. More about his bereavement here. I owe to Richard Russell my first dabblings in the Dow Theory. He timely signaled the 2008 primary bear market, and, in the past, before I was committed to the Dow Theory (or even born) he made very […]

Dow Theory Update for October 8: Primary bull market signaled for US Stocks on Oct. 7

posted on: October 8, 2015

At least theoretically, as it has been a very dubious signal. The S&P 500 closing high of September 16th, 2015 was 1995.31. Yesterday, October 7th, the S&P 500 closed above such a closing high by closing at 1995.83. Thus, the S&P 500 managed by a hair to exceed the closing highs of the secondary reaction, […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (II)

posted on: September 14, 2015

How to exit when the Dow Theory refuses to setup “orderly” primary bear market signals. Recently, I wrote about the primary bear market signal for Chinese stocks. As you well know this primary bear market signal came much too late, if we are to judge from the percentage decline from the top to the exit […]

Dow Theory special issue: Why the Dow Theory uses daily bars, not weekly and for good reason

posted on: September 7, 2015

Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold and silver and their ETFs miners unchanged. Travis, one reader of this blog, recently posted a comment whereby he asked why I use daily bars instead of weekly bars to determine what allegedly is the long-term trend. What follows is my answer, which deserves a post of its […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Primary bear market for Chinese stocks signaled last Friday 21st

posted on: August 24, 2015

And some thoughts concerning US Stocks… Market relevant events continue to pile up, while time remains in short supply. Last Friday, FXI broke below the lows of the last secondary reaction (which were made on October, 10th, 2014), and, accordingly confirmed HAO, which had already done so on July 7th, 2015. Confirmed lower lows, means […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Was it a primary bear market signal under the classical Dow Theory?

posted on: August 21, 2015

Bank of America seems to think so As reported by Zero Hedge, BofA seems to have detected a primary bear market signal by applying the Rhea/classical Dow Theory, as you can read here. However, I have my qualms as to the correctness of such a signal under the classical Dow Theory. On the other hand, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 21 (II): More about the primary bear market signaled for US stocks at the close of August 20

posted on: August 21, 2015

Some hours before, I wrote that yesterday, as per my reading of the Dow Theory (which is Schannep’s with some minor quirks) a primary bear market was signaled. Let’s delve further into it. Here you have an updated chart: Anatomy of a primary bear market signal. As you can see, on the left side of […]

Dow Theory Update for August 19: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (I)

posted on: August 19, 2015

Trends unchanged. This post was overdue, but time was scarce. While I am an ardent believer in the Dow Theory (of any persuasion whatsoever), I try not to be a fool. The Dow Theory is, in my opinion, the best mean to extract out performance and diminish drawdowns, providedthe market obliges. By an “obliging” market, […]

Dow Theory Update for July 1: Dissecting the ongoing secondary reaction for US stocks

posted on: July 1, 2015

Is paper gold dying? Yesterday, I warned that the secondary trend for stocks had turned bearish on June 29th (secondary reaction against the primary bull market). Please mind that I slightly depart from Schannep when it comes to considering “in the clear” signals and subsequent secondary reactions. More about this small discrepancy here and here. […]