Category: Dow Theory

How long do bull and bear markets last?

posted on: January 17, 2013

What is the expected performance of bull markets? Here is an interesting article posted on Zero Hedge entitled “Time dependency of bull markets”. While the definition of bull or bear market does not necessarily fit with the primary and bear markets as defined by the Dow Theory, it gives interesting insights as to what expect […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: An Answer to the New Low Observer (NLO)

posted on: January 12, 2013

This post is the consequence of a commentary posted by the New Low Observer (NLO) on an Instablog in Seeking Alpha. You can find the post and NLO’s comments here: Since the NLO’s commentary was very extensive, I decided that my reply would be a new post. I hold the people at the NLO in […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the current primary bull market signal

posted on: January 5, 2013

If you are a follower of this Dow Theory blog, you know that on January 2, a primary bull market in stocks was signaled. You can find the details here. Well, today, I’d like to expound the intricacies of the current bull market signal. First of all, on January 2, the new bull market was […]

Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous

posted on: December 10, 2012

How to develop confidence in the Dow Theory Today I read two good posts that highlight the importance of not falling in love with your stocks. In the “Systematic Relative Strength” blog, there is an interesting post concerning the risk of loving one stock. Please click here. In the “Big Picture” blog, there is another […]

Why I like timing? Why I love the Dow Theory as a capital protector?

posted on: December 5, 2012

When the stock market runs smoothly as it did in the 80s and 90s there seems to be little need for any timing device. Be it the Dow Theory or a moving average. However, when the cake is shrinking or not growing, or, simply, the market decides that it is time for lower multiples and […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the current secondary reaction in the stock market

posted on: December 4, 2012

A secondary reaction within a primary bear market As I promised in my yesterday’s post in this Dow Theory blog, I will provide you with additional information as to the ongoing secondary reaction. As a recap, we know that the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market on Nov 16. You have the details […]

Dow Theory recap: What are other Dow Theorists saying?

posted on: November 24, 2012

Russell, Schannep and Moroney examined. If you follow this Dow Theory blog, you know that I spotted a primary market Dow Theory signal on Nov 16. You can read the details of such a signal here and here. But the Dow Theory is not math, and hence it is subject to interpretation, which results in […]

Dow Theory special issue: After the dust has settled. Weekend commentary to the Dow Theory primary bear market signal

posted on: November 16, 2012

Putting things in perspective Well, we are some hours after the close heading into the weekend, and it is a good time to assess the stock market action and primary bear market signal issued by the Dow Theory. You can find in this postof this Dow Theory blog the basic information concerning the Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory special issue: Is the primary trend for stocks about to change?

posted on: November 10, 2012

As I promised in my previous post on this Dow Theory blog, let’s analyze the current juncture of the stock market, since, as per my interpretation of the Dow Theory, we have the perfect set up for a primary bear market signal. There is only one last shoe left to drop; namely, the Transports breaking […]

Dow Theory special issue: Gold and silver miners ETF secondary reaction

posted on: October 24, 2012

Are we sure? In my Dow Theory Update of October 23, I announced that the Dow Theory had signaled a secondary reaction in the gold and silver miners ETFs. Here you have a chart showing recent price action (until Oct 23) Caught within a line The red line is the SIL/GDX ratio which, as you […]

A primer on secondary reactions under Dow Theory

posted on: October 20, 2012

My detailed answer to a comment left by bstart. Bstart, an attentive reader of this blog, left an interesting comment which you can find here: I quote bstart: “Based on your notes and chart of DJT of http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2012/09/dow-theory-update-for-sept-13-new.html I interpret the SLV behavior differently. Is the following analysis right? 1. 5/16/12 – 26.37 SLV low […]

Special Dow Theory issue: Revisiting the 1987 crash

posted on: October 19, 2012

The Dow Theory saved its followers. As I promised earlier today, here are my two cents on the October 19, 1987 crash. So, how fared those that followed the Dow Theory? Were they spared? The answer if a clear: YES. They were spared. In this study, I will use “classical” Dow Theory with just the […]