Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Special Issue: A new Answer to the New Low Observer (NLO)

posted on: March 2, 2013

The New LowObserver (NLO) is an avid student of the markets. Its website contains a wealth of information, which spans many subjects (Dow Theory, specific stocks, book list, market observations, etc.) NLO posted a comment in my Seeking Alpha blog in the past which resulted in my post “An Answer to the New Low Observer […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory’s performance during the secular 1982-1999 bull market

posted on: February 22, 2013

How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold? Part III In my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?”, which you can find here, I started a series of articles dedicated to examining the classical/Rhea Dow Theory “flavor” under all market environments and across time. At the risk of […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory’s performance during the secular 1966-1981 bear market

posted on: February 9, 2013

How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold? Part II In my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?”, which you can find here, I started a series of articles dedicated to examining the classical/Rhea Dow Theory “flavor” under all market environments and across time. In that post, we […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs

posted on: January 26, 2013

Should we heed the Dow Theory when applied to ETFs? As you could read in this post, the Dow Theory has recently signaled a primary bear market for GDX and SIL (the gold and silver miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The pink lines are the secondary reaction lows that […]

Dow Theory special issue: How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?

posted on: January 18, 2013

Evaluating performance on a year-end basis. It is no secret that I am deeply influenced by Schannep’s Dow Theory flavor. To learn more about Schannep’s flavor, I suggest you go here, or if you plan to buy his excellent book here. For reasons that go beyond my comprehension (maybe because he’s the best-performing Dow Theorist) […]

How long do bull and bear markets last?

posted on: January 17, 2013

What is the expected performance of bull markets? Here is an interesting article posted on Zero Hedge entitled “Time dependency of bull markets”. While the definition of bull or bear market does not necessarily fit with the primary and bear markets as defined by the Dow Theory, it gives interesting insights as to what expect […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: An Answer to the New Low Observer (NLO)

posted on: January 12, 2013

This post is the consequence of a commentary posted by the New Low Observer (NLO) on an Instablog in Seeking Alpha. You can find the post and NLO’s comments here: Since the NLO’s commentary was very extensive, I decided that my reply would be a new post. I hold the people at the NLO in […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the current primary bull market signal

posted on: January 5, 2013

If you are a follower of this Dow Theory blog, you know that on January 2, a primary bull market in stocks was signaled. You can find the details here. Well, today, I’d like to expound the intricacies of the current bull market signal. First of all, on January 2, the new bull market was […]

Don’t fall in love with your stocks! Love is always dangerous

posted on: December 10, 2012

How to develop confidence in the Dow Theory Today I read two good posts that highlight the importance of not falling in love with your stocks. In the “Systematic Relative Strength” blog, there is an interesting post concerning the risk of loving one stock. Please click here. In the “Big Picture” blog, there is another […]

Why I like timing? Why I love the Dow Theory as a capital protector?

posted on: December 5, 2012

When the stock market runs smoothly as it did in the 80s and 90s there seems to be little need for any timing device. Be it the Dow Theory or a moving average. However, when the cake is shrinking or not growing, or, simply, the market decides that it is time for lower multiples and […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the current secondary reaction in the stock market

posted on: December 4, 2012

A secondary reaction within a primary bear market As I promised in my yesterday’s post in this Dow Theory blog, I will provide you with additional information as to the ongoing secondary reaction. As a recap, we know that the Dow Theory signaled a primary bear market on Nov 16. You have the details […]

Dow Theory recap: What are other Dow Theorists saying?

posted on: November 24, 2012

Russell, Schannep and Moroney examined. If you follow this Dow Theory blog, you know that I spotted a primary market Dow Theory signal on Nov 16. You can read the details of such a signal here and here. But the Dow Theory is not math, and hence it is subject to interpretation, which results in […]