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Historic Record

History in the Stock Market in the 20th – 21st Centuries.

  • 31 Bull Markets (including the one that started on 9/30/22 whose end is unknown yet)
  • 30 Bear Markets
Low DateHigh DateDJIA% GainNo.of Mos.% LossNo.of Mos.
9/24/190052.96
6/17/190178.2647.88.7
11/9/190342.1546.128.7
1/19/1906103.00144.426.3
11/15/190753.0048.521.9
11/19/1909100.5389.724.1
9/25/191172.9427.422.2
9/30/191294.1529.112.2
12/24/1914(was 73.48) >  53.17< (changed basis)  24.626.8
11/21/1916110.15107.222.9
12/19/191765.9540.113.0
11/3/1919119.6281.422.5
8/24/192163.9046.621.7
3/20/1923105.3864.918.9
10/27/192385.7618.67.2
Note#19/3/1929381.17344.570.2
7/8/193241.2289.234.2
Note#23/10/1937194.40371.656.0
3/31/193898.9549.112.7
Note#311/12/38 158.4160.17.4
4/28/194292.9241.341.5
5/29/1946212.50131.949.0
5/17/1947163.2122.311.6
6/15/1948193.1624.518.4
6/13/1949161.6016.311.9
4/6/1956521.05222.481.8
10/22/57 419.7919.418.5
12/13/1961734.9175.149.7
6/26/1962535.7627.16.4
2/9/1966995.1585.743.4
10/7/1966744.3225.28.0
12/ 3/68 985.2132.425.9
5/26/1970631.1635.917.8
1/11/73 1051.7066.631.5
12/6/1974577.6045.122.8
9/21/19761014.7975.721.5
2/28/1978742.1226.917.2
4/27/1981
1024.05
31.838
8/12/1982776.922415.5
8/25/19872722.42250.460.4
10/19/19871738.7436.11.8
7/16/19902999.7572.532.9
10/11/19902365.1021.22.8
7/17/19989337.97294.893.2
8/31/19987539.0719.31.5
1/14/200011722.9855.516.5
9/21/20018235.8129.720.2
3/19/200210635.2529.15.9
10/9/20027286.2731.56.7
10/9/200714164.5394.560.0
11/20/20087552.2946.713.4
1/2/20099034.6919.61.4
3/9/20096547.0527.52.5
4/29/201112810.5495.725.4
10/3/201110655.3016.75.1
10/3/2018 26828.39151.884.0
12/24/2018 21782.2018.8 2.8
2/12/2020 29551.42 35.713.7
3/23/2020 18591.9337.1 1.4
1/4/202236799.65
97.9321.4
9/30/202228725.5121.949.9
  Average:109.5%34.8 months32.67%14.25 months
  Median:78.6%25.6 months27.50%13 months

+/-3%=Fluctuation,  -3 to -9=Pullback/Setback,  -9 to -16%=Correction,  -16%=Bear Market
+3 to +9 = Bounce,               +9 to +19% = Rally          +19% = Bull Market
Percentages must be attained on both the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P500 stock averages

The BOTTOM LINE

     Bull Markets rise 75% (median) to 106.8% (average) in just over 33 months (median time is 24.1 months).  Bear Markets drop over 1/4 to 1/3  in less than a year and a half.   The average stock market is in a Bull Market 67% of the time and in Bear Markets 33% of the time.  For the last 16 years of the 20th Century the percentages were 97% and 3%, but that should not have been expected to continue.  The prior 16 years were split almost exactly 50%-50%.  So far in the 21st Century the market has been 86.9% of the time in Bull markets and 13.1% in Bear markets (as of 1/4/22). Therefore, the recent 35 years have had an average or 90% of the time in Bull markets and only 10% in Bear markets – Quite an unusually bullish 1/3 of a Century!

The following 10 “mini-Bull markets” were aberrations in the 1930’s, lasting an average of 3 months and 40 points, and are excluded for the purpose of definitions and the record, but shown here to complete the unabridged record:

LowsHighsDJIA% Gain# of  Mos.% Loss# of Mos
Note #111/13/1929198.6947.92.3
4/17/1930294.07485.1
12/16/1930157.5146.48.0
2/24/1931194.3623.42.3
6/2/1931121.737.43.2
6/27/1931156.9328.90.8
10/5/193186.4844.33.1
11/9/1931116.79351.1
1/5/193271.2439.01.8
3/8/193288.7824.62.1
Note #27/18/193241.2253.64
9/7/193279.9393.92.0 
2/27/193350.1637.25.7
7/18/1933108.67116.64.6
10/21/193383.64233.1
2/5/1934110.7432.43.5
7/26/193485.5122.85.6
Note #34/8/1939121.4423.34.9
9/12/1939155.9228.45.1
6/10/1940111.8428.38.9
11/9/1940138.1223.55
4/28/194292.9232.717.7
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