Historic Record

History in the Stock Market in the 20th – 21st Centuries.

• 32 Bull Markets (including the one that started on 9/30/22 whose end is unknown yet)
• 31 Bear Markets

+/-3%=Fluctuation,  -3 to -9=Pullback/Setback,  -9 to -16%=Correction,  -16%=Bear Market
+3 to +9 = Bounce,               +9 to +19% = Rally          +19% = Bull Market
Percentages must be attained on both the Dow Jones Industrials and S&P500 stock averages

The BOTTOM LINE

     Bull Markets rise 75% (median) to 106.8% (average) in just over 33 months (median time is 24.1 months).  Bear Markets drop over 1/4 to 1/3  in less than a year and a half.   The average stock market is in a Bull Market 67% of the time and in Bear Markets 33% of the time.  For the last 16 years of the 20th Century the percentages were 97% and 3%, but that should not have been expected to continue.  The prior 16 years were split almost exactly 50%-50%.  So far in the 21st Century the market has been 86.9% of the time in Bull markets and 13.1% in Bear markets (as of 1/4/22). Therefore, the recent 35 years have had an average or 90% of the time in Bull markets and only 10% in Bear markets – Quite an unusually bullish 1/3 of a Century!

The following 10 “mini-Bull markets” were aberrations in the 1930’s, lasting an average of 3 months and 40 points, and are excluded for the purpose of definitions and the record, but shown here to complete the unabridged record: