The following shows that BEAR markets have been followed (9 months on average) by recessions 64% of the time:
| Bear Market Dates: | Recessions: | Length (Mos): | Lead time Bear Market start to Recession start: | % Drop Prior to Recession Start: | Total Bear Market Drop: | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6/1901-11/03 | 9/02 - 8/04 | 23 | 15 months | -15% | 46.1 |
|
| 1/06-11/07 | 5/07 - 6/08 | 13 | 16 | -21 | 48.5 | |
| 11/09- 9/11 | 1/10 - 1/12 | 24 | 2 | -6 | 27.4 | |
| 9/12 - 7/14 | 1/13-12/14 | 23 | 4 | -10 | 24.6 | |
| 11/16-12/17 | 8/18 - 3/19 | 7 | 21 | -25 | 40.1 | |
| 11/19 -8/21 | 1/20 - 7/21 | 18 | 2 | -13 | 46.6 | |
| 3/23-10/23 | 5/23- 7/24 | 14 | 2 | -8 | 18.6 | |
| (10/26-11/27) | 13 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||
| 9/29 - 7/32 | 8/29 - 3/33* | 43 | -1 | 0 | 89.2 | |
| 3/37 - 3/38 | 5/37 - 6/38 | 13 | 2 | -11 | 49.1 | |
| 11/38-4/42 | None | n/a | n/a | 41.3 | ||
| (2/45-10/45) | 8 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||
| 5/46 - 5/47 | None | 22.3 | ||||
| 6/48 - 6/49 | 11/48-10/49 | 11 | 30 | -17 | 16.3 | |
| (7/53 - 5/54) | 10 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||
| 4/56-10/57 | 8/57 - 4/58 | 8 | 16 | -7 | 19.4 | |
| (4/60 - 2/61) | 10 | n/a | n/a | n/a | ||
| 12/61- 6/62 | None/"mild" | n/a | n/a | 27.1 | ||
| 2/66-10/66 | None/but...** | n/a | n/a | 25.2 | ||
| 12/68- 5/70 | 12/69-11/70 | 11 | 12 | -19 | 35.9 | |
| 1/73-12/74 | 11/73- 3/75 | 16 | 10 | -15 | 45.1 | |
| 9/76- 2/78 | None | n/a | n/a | 26.9 | ||
| 4/81- 8/82 | 7/81-11/82 | 16 | 3 | -6 | 24.1 | |
| 8/87-10/87 | None | n/a | n/a | 36.1 | ||
| 7/90-10/90 | 7/90 - 3/91 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 21.2 | |
| 7/98-8/98 | None | n/a | n/a | 19.3 | ||
| 1/2000-3/01 | 3/01 - 11/01 | 8 | 14 | -7 | 29.7 | |
| 3/02-10/02 | None | n/a | n/a | 31.5 | ||
| 10/07-11/08 | 12/07-7/09 | 19 | 2 | -9 | 46.7 | |
| 1/09 - 3/09 | Same | 19 | n/a | n/a | 27.5 | |
| 4/11 - 10/11 | None/but*** | 16.8 | ||||
| 10/19 - 12/19 | None | 19.8 | ||||
| 2/20 - 3/20 | 2/20 - 4/20 | 2 | 0 | -37 | 37 | |
| 1/22-10/22 | None/but (+) | 21.94 |
||||
| Average: | 14.45 mos. | 8.3 mos. | -11.89% | 32.71 | ||
*Depression
**Growth recession per Forbes Magazine (1/23/89) Industrial production fell from 1st Q 1967 to 3rd Q of 1967
***”The worst non-recession in U.S. history” second half 2012 per Economic Cycle Research Institute (10/6/2017)
(+) The two consecutive quarters of GDP contractions in Q1 & Q2 2002 were not officially labeled as a recession and were coupled with the 2022 Bear market
The BOTTOM LINE
64% of BEAR Markets have been followed by Recessions. Only 4 (in parenthesis) of the total of 22 Recessions were not immediately preceded by BEAR Markets).