Schannep Timing Indicator SELL Signals and the further S&P500 Loss to the final Bear Market Lows*:
(Data since 12/31/1953)
| Sell Date | Level | Low Date: | level | further loss: | months to low: |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8/20/1956 | 48.25 | 10/22/1957 | 38.98 | 19.2% | 14.1 |
| 11/12/1959 | 57.17 | 10/25/1960 | 52.30 | 8.5% | 11.5 |
| 5/10/1962 | 63.57 | 6/26/1962 | 52.32 | 17.7% | 1.5 |
| 5/2/1966 | 90.9 | 10/7/1966 | 73.20 | 19.5% | 5.2 |
| 1/22/1968 | 94.03 | 3/5/1968 | 87.72 | 6.7% | 1.5 |
| 3/7/1969 | 98.65 | 5/26/1970 | 69.29 | 29.8% | 14.6 |
| 2/23/1973 | 113.16 | 8/22/1973 | 100.53 | 11.2% | 6.0 |
| 11/20/1973 | 98.66 | 10/3/1974 | 62.26 | 36.9% | 10.5 |
| 10/31/1977 | 92.34 | 3/6/1978 | 86.90 | 5.9% | 4.2 |
| 10/26/1978 | 96.03 | 11/14/1978 | 92.49 | 3.7% | 0.6 |
| 8/31/1981 | 122.79 | 8/12/1982 | 102.42 | 16.6% | 11.4 |
| 2/22/1984 | 154.31 | 7/24/1984 | 147.82 | 4.2% | 5.1 |
| 10/16/1987 | 282.7 | 12/4/1987 | 223.92 | 20.8% | 1.6 |
| 8/23/1990(a) | 307.06 | 10/11/1990 | 295.46 | 3.8% | 1.6 |
| 6/20/1994 | 455.48 | 6/24/1994 | 442.80 | 2.8% | 0.1 |
| 8/27/1998 | 1042.59 | 8/31/1998 | 957.28 | 8.2% | 0.1 |
| 8/30/1999 | 1324.02 | 10/15/1999 | 1247.41 | 5.8% | 1.5 |
| 3/16/2001(a) | 1150.53 | 9/21/2001 | 965.80 | 16.0% | 6.2 |
| 7/3/2002 | 953.99 | 10/9/2002 | 776.76 | 18.6% | 3.2 |
| 8/5/2004** | 1080.7 | 8/12/2004 | 1063.23 | 1.6% | 0.3 |
| 7/12/2006 | 1258.6 | 7/17/2006 | 1234.49 | 1.9% | 0.2 |
| 1/15/2008 | 1380.95 | 10/20/2008 | 985.40 | 28.6% | 9.2 |
| 2/19/2009(a) | 778.94 | 3/9/2009 | 676.53 | 13.1% | 0.6 |
| 8/10/2011(a) | 1120.76 | 10/3/2011 | 1099.23 | 0.2% | 1.8 |
| 4/23/2018 | 2670.29 | 5/4/2018 | 2663.42 | 0.2% | 0.4 |
| 11/16/2018 | 2736.27 | 12/24/2018 | 2351.10 | 14.1% | 1.3 |
| 3/9/2020 | 2746.56 | 3/23/2020 | 2237.39 | 18.54% | 0.5 |
| 4/11/2022 | 4412.53 | 6/16/2022 | 3666.77 | 16.90% | 2.2 |
| 9/30/2022 | 3585.62 | N/A | N/A | N/A | N/A |
| Average further decline: | 12.54% | 4.18 | |||
*When no ‘official’ Bear market follows this is the low for this move.
**This signal was a 1/2 sell signal due to the very favorable monetary status.
(a) was a ‘stop-loss’ due to definition of Bear market being met.
21 Signals were in or followed by ‘official’ Bear markets within a year, 5 were not.