Mark Hulbert of Marketwatch: The Transports have been the stronger of the two benchmarks, and it is widely considered to be a leading economic indicator. Read the article HERE.
Meet Jack and Bart Schannep
I am a 1956 graduate of the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. For 4 years I was a jet instructor pilot and academic instructor in the Air Force. From 1961 until 1968 I was a stockbroker with Dean Witter (now Morgan Stanley) in Phoenix. I opened and managed the Dean Witter Tucson offices from 1968 until retiring as Senior Vice President in charge of southern Arizona offices in 1984. My dearest wife Helen passed away from pancreatic cancer in 2014. She and I had four children, eight grand-children, and six great-grand-children, and I live in Tucson and Pinetop, Arizona. I was president of the Lions Club, the West Point Society, the Big Brothers, and other professional organizations. I was on the Executive Committee of the Tucson Chamber of Commerce, the Arizona state chairman of the National Association of Security Dealers (NASD - now FINRA) Fair Practices Committee, and an Allied member of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE).
I’ve had a serious interest in market timing for many years, starting with The Dow Theory over 55 years ago. My father-in-law had known Robert Rhea, the great Dow Theorist of the 1930's and author of the definitive work on the subject The Dow Theory. In 1962, I mimeographed (!) my first market timing letter to my clients (Subscribers can access "From The Archives" in the Subscribers area). In 1969, I initially developed a stock market major trend timing indicator which over the next several years I further developed and improved. I went from making the necessary calculations on my slide rule and adding machine to my first personal computer over thirty years ago.
Back in 1977, I began writing a personal correspondence to my fellow managers, my stockbrokers and some other colleagues about my advanced market timing indicator, and my expectations for the stock market. That became the "Schannep Timing Indicator Quarterly Letter" which I continued in my retirement. The day before the market low in 1982 I wrote a memo to the brokers in my office that "The values are here and the markets will turn". Five years and +250% later on October 13th, 1987, six days before that crash, I wrote that "Ninth innings of baseball games like 3rd legs of 3rd legs usually mark the end, sometimes they end earlier, sometimes later, but alas, they always end." Then on December 7th, 1987, THE day of the low on the Standard & Poor's 500, and I wrote: "They say no one rings a bell at market lows…But listen closely: I just did!". Moving right along, I wrote three Special Reports that I called "Three Tops and a Tumble" in late 1999 and in January of 2000 that bull market topped out. After the bear markets that followed I sent an e-mail to all Subscribers entitled "Only Twice Before in 50 Years, and Now Today" at THE VERY BOTTOM on Oct 9th, 2002 with the Dow Jones at 7286.27!! Five years later the market topped out at 14,164.53. On March 26th, 2009 I wrote "the bear market has already ended" in a Letter entitled "Getting Back on the Bucking Bronco". The records for both the Schannep Timing Indicator, the Dow Theory, and our Composite Timing Indicator can be found in this website.
In 1984, I had my C.P.A. verify the signals of my indicator from the time they became "live" in June of 1969 and to back-test the data from 1953. In 1998 he updated that verification. At that time I opened my Letter up to the public via the Internet and since then the record has been monitored by TimerTrac.com and since 2000 by the Hulbert Financial Digest found at MarketWatch.com. Hulbert rated my Newsletter one of "2008's Top-Performing Newletters." CXO Advisory.com listed me as Number One in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and in their 2013 "Guru Final Report Card", first of the 50 currently active "gurus" he followed. Mark Hulbert wrote that "Schannep's interpretation of the Dow Theory did a better job of navigating the 2007-2009 bear market and subsequent bull market than any of the nearly 200 other stock market timing strategies monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest" (5/21/2010) and "in the hands of at least one of the advisers (Jack Schannep) whose performance I regularly monitor, it (the Dow Theory) is one of the best performing market timing systems of the last decade" (3/18/2011).
In the 6/15/2013 Wall Street Journal Mark Hulbert wrote: "One of the top performing timers is Jack Schannep, editor of a service called TheDowTheory.com. An investor would have made a 10% annualized return over the past five years by using Mr. Schannep's market-timing models to switch between the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF and a typical money-market fund. That is nearly double the 5.7% produced by buying and holding that index fund itself. Even better, an investor following Mr. Schannep's signals would have incurred a third less volatility than the market itself, as measured by the standard deviation of his returns. Nearly doubling the market's gains with much less risk is a winning combination". In the 6/19/2014 Wall Street Journal he included me in "The Best and the Brightest" - The top five stock-market timers over the past decade.
In 2008 I wrote my one and only book Dow Theory for the 21st Century - Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results, published by John Wiley & Sons. Stock Traders Almanac 2009 named my book one of the "Year's Best Investment Books". It was published in Chinese in 2010. Investors Chronicle of the Financial Times of London called it "The Dow Theory Bible".
Bart has contributed ideas and analysis to our Newsletter for over 20 years and in 2013 finally officially joined the ranks here at TheDowTheory.com as “Contributing Editor”. A veteran of the financial services business for some 30 years, Bart adds experience and expertise, as well as continuity into the future for our Newsletter.
Bart co-founded and serves as President of Southwest Investment Advisors, Inc. in Tucson, Arizona. His role of Contributing Editor is considered an outside business activity and is unrelated to his daily duties with Southwest.
Bart was selected for the distinction of Outstanding Advisor of the Year by Registered Rep Magazine, one of only 10 financial advisors selected by the editors for 2010. From hundreds of nominees, the winning advisors have demonstrated both business success and leadership in serving as guides to other financial advisors and as active participants in community activities. Bart's involvement is a real plus, and a welcome addition to the Schannep Team.
Southwest Investment Advisors, Inc. does not review or approve materials presented herein. The opinions and any recommendations expressed in this Letter are those of the authors and do not reflect the opinions or recommendations of Southwest Investment Advisors, Inc. nor its broker/dealer and separate and unrelated company, National Planning Corporation (NPC).
Our purpose has always been to help the reader attain personal financial success, and we would hope and expect that will continue to happen. We will tell you without reservation when and what our indicators and our interpretation of The Dow Theory are saying. We will give you our best judgment and show you proven ways to improve on these investment results. We look forward with enthusiasm to continuing our stock market major trend timing indicator NewsLetter and expanding it from that small group in the business to a worldwide audience. And that IS happening, and we invite you to join us as a regular subscriber as we go into the future with the peace of mind that TIMING IS ON OUR SIDE!
There has been renewed interest in the Dow Theory since Jack Schannep presented his research to the Market Technicians Association that showed Dow Theory produced an excess return of 1.5% per year (from 1953 thru 2011) versus a buy and hold strategy. His presentation attracted a whole new generation of Dow Theory enthusiasts. Read the article HERE.
“Jack Schannep is simply the most accurate market timer I have ever known. I have read his commentaries religiously since 2002 and he has been right every step of the way. He perfectly called the market bottom in October 2002 and never wavered from his bullish stance until late in 2007… and again, he was 100% right to call an end to the five year bull run. Jack’s application of technical analysis in defining the primary trend of the market has been spot on.”
Executive Vice President
Zacks Investment Research
“Jack Schannep is one of the finest Dow Theory analysts now practicing… The real praise is that I rely on his work in my work… Your contribution to this book was most important and mostappreciated. I can’t tell you what a problem I was having bringing Dow Theory performance up to date before I found TheDowTheory.com. Gratefully, my most cordial thanks.
Editor and co-author
Technical Analysis of Stock Trends w/Edwards & Magee
“in the hands of at least one of the advisers whose performance I regularly monitor, it (the Dow Theory) is one of the best performing market timing systems of the last decade”. “I turn first to Jack Schannep editor of TheDowTheory.com and the Schannep Timing Indicator, whose interpretation of the Dow theory has been the most successful in recent years among the three investment services I monitor who base their market timing on the Dow Theory”.“Schannep’s interpretation of the Dow Theory did a better job of navigating the 2007-2009 bear market and subsequent bull market than any of the nearly 200 other stock market timing strategies monitored by the Hulbert Financial Digest.”
Editor, Hulbert Fin’l Digest
“(Jack Schannep is) the most successful Dow theorist of our age… Not only has he got a first-rate record of market calls, but his interpretation seems more faithful to what I understand as being the teachings of the theory’s founding fathers”.
‘The Trader’ Columnist
Financial Times of London
“You’ve been consistently right…(your) advice has made a lot of your friends a lot of money.”
Sr Vice President (Retired)
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
“For many years Jack Schannep has been a serious student of the factors influencing the securities markets and personally very helpful to me.”
Robert H. Stovall
Hall of Fame Panelist
Wall $treet Week with Louis Rukeyser
“Your thoughts have helped me personally, professionally and … often. Your name is held in the highest esteem.”
Vice President (Retired)
Morgan Stanley Dean Witter
“Based on subsequent stock market performance and our judgments about the accuracy of Jack Schannep’s forecasts, his bottom-line outlook for U.S. stocks has been right 65% of the time…. (He) has been in the upper tier of the list since inception…” (Was rated #1 in 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011, 2012 and now 2013 of 50 active experts graded- edited in by JDS).
The CXO Advisory Group