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COMPOSITE Timing Indicator, The Complete Record

Whenever a 1st Buy signal of any of 1) Capitulation, 2) the Dow Theory for the 21st Century, or 3) the Schannep Timing Indicator (until 10/31/22. Starting 11/1/22 Blay Timing Indicator), buy to 50% invested; if another Indicator gets a finalizing Buy go to fully invested, i.e. add another 50%. If the 2nd Buy is a capitulation or an incremental Buy then add just another 25%, adding the final 25% when another finalized Buy signal occurs. If a Buy is reversed in time by the same type signal then return to the position held excluding that Buy, i.e. if 50%/(25%) was bought then sell that 50%/(25%).

Whenever a 1st Sell Indicator occurs sell 1/2 or 50%, upon a 2nd sell out 100%.

Bold Italicized percentage is 1st Buy or Sell, underlined percentage completes 100%.
Dates shown are dates of signals.  [Here is a tweak for possibly getting better execution prices: ‘Action’ dates can be days later,  most likely is the Schannep Timing Indicator when Monetary component figures are released. In the case of a sell, ‘wait and watch’ if there are intervening ‘obvious’ UP days and hold off to enter the sell order until the first ‘obvious’ DOWN day to execute;  (may require waiting until the last minutes of the trading day). For Buy signals the opposite procedure. Does NOT apply to Capitulation Buys.]

I use equal amounts of Diamonds (DIA), Spiders (SPY), the equal-weighted S&P (RSP) and Nasdaq100 (QQQ, more explanations about including the Nasdaq HERE), so as to participate fully in the market’s advances/declines, however the results shown are from using the Dow Jones Industrial Average only. Results shown include dividends received and interest earned on 3 month Treasuries as received quarterly. Market levels are for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When Bull/Bear markets become “official” both the DJIA and the S&P500 levels are shown.

The Dow Theory for the 21st Century is used in place of the original/traditional Dow Theory.  As it was only spelled out with the publication of my book in 2008, these results are from backtesting for the most part.  If the rules for this indicator were followed explicitly and had the data been available throughout this timeframe, the results would have been as shown:

Buy Signal Type Date/Level
Capitulation
%Buy or Sell Date/Level
The Dow Theory for the 21st Century
%Buy or Sell Date/Level
Schannep Timing
%Buy or Sell Date/Level
Definition of "Official" Bull or 
Bear met
%COMPOSITE Indicator
Signal
Start 12/31/53 

$10,000
9/14/53 mkt lows
255.49
Year-end 12/31/53
@280.90
$10,000
B-1/25/54@290.4050$10,007
B-4/1/54@306.2750Bull-4/1/54 @306.27
(S&P@27.17
)
< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 298.33$10,338
Year-end 12/30/54
@404.39
$14,108
Year-end 12/30/55
@488.40
$17,732
4/6/56 Bull Mkt High:521.05
S-8/20/56@511.2450$19,066
Year-end 12/30/56
@499.97
$19,099
S-2/5/57@469.9650< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 490.60$18.603
Bear-10/17/57 @436.87
(S&P@40.65)
n/a
10/22/57 Bear Mkt Low:419.79
Year-end 12/31/57
@435.69
19,134
B-4/21/58@450.7250$19,222
B-5/5/58@461.1250< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 455.92$19,464
Bull-7/25/58 @501.76
(S&P@46.97)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/58
@583.65
$25,259
S-11/12/59@644.2650$28,607
Year-end 12/31/59
@679.36
$29,525
S-2/16/60@611.3350No Bear market< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 627.80$28,173
Year-end 12/30/60
@615.89
$28,824
B-1/3/61@610.2550$28,829
B-3/6/61@674.4650< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 642.35$30,485
12/13/61 Bull Mkt High734.91
Year-end 12/29/61@731.14$33,843
S-4/12/62@685.6750$32,029
S-5/10/62@647.2350< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 666.45$31,209
Bear-5/25/62 @611.88
(S&P@59.47)
n/a
B-6/22/62@539.1950B-6/22/62@539.19n/aB-6/22/62@539.19n/a$31,306
6/26/62 Bear Mkt Low:535.76
B-7/18/62@571.2425$32,308
B-7/31/62@597.9325< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 561.88$33,482
B-11/14/62@630.48n/a
Bull-11/29/62 @652.61
(S&P@62.41)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/62@652.10$37,072
Year-end 12/31/63@762.95$44,755
Year-end 12/31/64@874,13$52,914
Year-end 12/31/65@969.26$60,567
2/9/66 Bull Mkt High:995.15
Capitulation%The Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
S-5/2/66@931.9550$58,838
S-5/9/66@886.8050< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 909.37$57,455
S-Bear market definition metn/aBear-8/22/66@792.03
(S&P@78.24)
n/a
10/7/66 Bear Mkt Low:744.32
B-12/13/66@816.7050$59,103
B-12/27/66@792.2050< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 804.45$58,315
Year-end 12/30/66@785.69$57,853
Bull-4/24/67@887.53  (S&P@92.62)n/a
S-11/2/67@864.8550$65,514
Year-end 12/31/67@905.11$67,457
S-1/22/68@871.7150< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 868.28$66,384
B-4/11/68@905.6950No Bear market$67,081
B-9/24/68@938.2850< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 921.99
$69,584
12/3/68 Bull Mkt High:985.21
Year-end 12/31/68@943.75$70,588
S-2/20/69@916.6550$68,876
S-3/7/69@911.1850< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 913.92$68,800
Bear-7/28/69 @ 806.23
(S&P@90.21)
n/a
B-10/16/69@838.7750$71,439
Year-end 12/31/69@800.36$70,616
S-1/26/70@768.8850No Bull market< to 100% 'cash'$69,490
B-5/25/70@641.3650B-5/25/70@641.36n/aB-5/25/70@641.36
n/a$70,980
5/26/70 Bear Mkt Low:631.16
B-6/10/70@694.3525
B-8/21/70@745.4125B-8/24/70@759.58n/a< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 680.61$74,084
Bull-9/4/70@771.15
(S&P@82.83)
$78,883
Year-end 12/31/70@838.92$90,014
S-7/28/71@872.0150No Bear market$95,390
B-9/7/71 @916.4750< Fully Invested at 100%$98,271
Year-end 12/31/71@890.20$96,534
Year-end 12/29/72@1,020.02$114,097
1/11/73 Bull Mkt High:1,051.70
Capitulation%The Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
S-2/23/73@959.8950$107,921
S-2/26/73@953.7950< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 956.84$107,617
Bear-8/21/73@857.84
(S&P@100.89)
n/a
B-10/22/73@960.5750No Bull Market$112,422
S-11/20/73@844.9050< to 100% 'cash'$106,139
Year-end 12/29/73@850.86$106,982
B-8/23/74@686.8050B-8/23/74@686.80n/aB-8/23/74@686.80n/a$112,160
B-9/30/74@607.8725B-9/30/74@607.87n/aB-9/30/74@607.87n/a$106,442
B-10/21/74@669.8225< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 662.82$114,941
B-11/4/74@657.23n/a
12/6/74 Bear Mkt Low:577.6
Year-end 12/29/74@616.24$106,978
Bull-1/28/75@687.34
(S&P@77.26)
Year-end 12/29/75@852.41$154,698
9/21/76 Bull Mkt High:1,014.79
S-11/9/76@930.7750$174,369
Year-end 12/29/76@1004.65$182,360
S-10/31/77@818.3550< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 874.56$172,175
Year-end 12/29/77@831.17$173,825
Bear-1/10/78@781.53
(S&P@90.17)
n/a
2/28/78 Bear Mkt Low:742.12
B-4/17/78@810.1250$176,915
B-6/5/78@863.8350< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 836.98$184,168
Bull-8/3/78@886.87
(S&P@103.51)
n/a
9/11/78 Bull Mkt High:907.74
CapitulationThe Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
S-10/17/78@866.3450$188,189
S-10/26/78@821.1250< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 843.73$183,588
Year-end 12/29/78@805.01$186,171
B-1/4/79@826.1450$186,386
Year-end 12/31/79@838.74$201,952
4/21/80 Mkt Low:759.13
B-6/11/80@872.7050< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 849.42$213,535
Year-end 12/31/80@963.99$242,955
4/27/81 Bull Mkt High:1,024.05
S-7/2/81@959.1950$248,265
S-8/31/81@881.4750< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 920.33$242,134
Bear-9/24/81 @845.69
(115.01)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/81@875.00$251,371
8/12/82 Bear Mkt Low:776.92
B-8/20/82@869.2850$268,924
B-8/23/82@891.1750< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 880.22$272,493
B-Bull-9/3/82 @925.13
(S&P@122.68)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/82@1,046.54$326,814
S-7/29/83@1199.2150$384,507
B-10/7/83@1272.1550< Fully Invested at 100%$400,960
Year-end 12/30/83@1,258.64$400,611
S-1/25/84@1231.8850$393,293
S-2/22/84@1134.2150< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 1,183.04$379,630
B-8/3/84@1202.9650No Bear Market$394,909
B-8/21/84@1239.7350< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 1,221.34$402,326
Year-end 12/31/84@1,211.57$399,788
Year-end 12/31/85@1,546.67$532,491
Year-end 12/31/86@1,895.95$675,705
8/25/87 Bull Mkt High:2,722.42
S-10/12/87@2471.4450$899,819
S-10/16/87@
2246.74
due to Bear Definition met
50< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 2,359.09$859,357
Bear-10/16/87 @2246.74
(S&P@282.70)
Capitulation%The Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
B-10/19/87@1738.7450B-10/19/87@1738.74n/aB-10/19/87@1738.74n/a10/19/87 Bear Mkt Low:1,738.74$859,751
B-12/3/87@1776.5325B-12/3/87@1776.53n/aB-12/3/87@1776.53n/a$873,985
Year-end 12/31/87@1,938.83$936,694
B-2/19/88@2014.5825< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 1,817.15$968,317
B-2/29/88@ 2071.62 due to Bull definition metn/aBull-2/29/88 @2071.62
(S&P@267.82)
n/a
S-8/10/88@2034.1450                $995,176
B-10/7/88@2150.2550< Fully Invested at 100%$1,031,680
Year-end 12/30/88@2,168.57$1,049,054
S-10/13/89@2569.2650No Bear market$1,276,237
Year-end 12/31/89@2,753.20$1,336,940
B-3/2/90@2660.3650< Fully Invested at 100%$1,327,228
7/16/90 Bull Mkt High:2,999.75
S-8/2/90@2864.6050$1,451,887
B-8/23/90@2483.42Stay at 50%B-8/23/90@
2483.42 This Capitulation Buy reaffirms the 50% invested  position and offsets the Bear definition
n/aB-8/23/90@ 2483.42
S-8/23/90@ 2483.42 due to Bear definition being met, reduce to 50% invested as capitulation was occurring
n/a
n/a
Bear-8/23/90 @2483.42
(S&P@307.06)
n/a
10/11/90 Bear Mkt Low:2,365.10
B-10/26/90@2436.1425$1,360,643
B-11/12/90@2540.3525< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 2,485.83$1,407,265
Year-end 12/31/90@2,633.66$1,466,592
B-1/25/91@2659.41 n/aBull-2/6/91@2830.94
(S&P@358.07)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/91@3,168.83$1,820,133
Year-end 12/31/92@3,301.11$1,951,478
Year-end 12/31/93@3,754.09$2,281,725
S-6/20/94@3741.9050No Bear Market$2,301,751
Year-end 12/3/94@3,834.44$2,374,739
B-2/22/95@3973.0550< Fully Invested at 100%$2,431,749
Year-end 12/29/95@5,117.12$3,194,102
Year-end 12/31/96@6,448.27$4,108,987
Year-end 12/31/97@7,908.25$5,123,738
7/17/98 Bull Mkt High:9,337.97
S-8/4/98@8487.3150$5,551,390
S-8/27/98@8165.9950< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 8,326.65$5,457,453
Bear-8/31/98 @7539.07
(S&P@957.28)
n/a
Capitulation%The Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
B-8/31/98@7539.0750B-8/31/98@7539.07n/aB-8/31/98@7539.07n/a8/31/98 Bear Mkt Low:7,539.07$5,460,221
B-9/10/98@7615.5425$5,492,709
B-9/14/98@7945.3525< Fully Invested at 100%$9.76$5,672,629
B-11/5/98@8915.47n/a      
Bull-11/6/98 @8975.46
(S&P@1141.01)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/98@9,181.43$6,587,555
S-8/30/99@10914.1450$7,911,514
S-9/23/99@10318.5950No Bear Market< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 10,616.37$7,711,294
B-12/3/99@11286.1850$7,782,522
Year-end 12/31/99@11,497.12$7,874,161
1/14/00 Bull Mkt high:11,722.98
Year-end 12/29/00@10,786.85$7,906,828
S-3/16/01@ 9823.41 due to Bear definition being met50S-Bear-3/16/01 @9823.41
(S&P@1150.53)
< to 100% 'cash'$7,605,300
B-9/20/01@8376.2150B-9/20/01@8376.21n/aB-9/20/01@8376.21n/a$7,739,026
9/21/01 Bear Mkt low:8,235.81
B-10/30/01@9121.9825$8,100,952
B-11/6/01@9591.1225< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 8,866.38$8,416,498
B-11/19/01@9976.46 
due to Bull definition being met
n/aBull-11/19/01 @9976.46
(S&P500@1151.06)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/01@10,021.50$8,819,695
3/19/02 Bull Mkt High:10,635.25
S-6/3/02@9709.7950$8,610,924
S-7/3/02@9054.9750< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 9,382.38$8,332,393
Bear-7/10/02 @8813.50
(S&P@920.47)
n/a
B-7/19/02@8019.2650B-7/19/02@8019.26n/aB-7/19/02@8019.26n/a$8,338,311
B-8/2/02@8313.1325$8,497,121
B-8/14/02@8743.3125< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 8,273.74$8,832,567
S-9/17/02@8207.5550$8,308,187
Capitulation%The Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
B-10/9/02@7286.2725B-10/9/02@ 7286.27 This capitulation Buy is "another" Indicator so add 25%n/aB-10/9/02@7286.27n/a10/9/02 Bear Mkt low:7,286.27$7,850,230
B-11/5/02@8678.2725< Fully Invested at 100%$8,987,700
B-11/8/02@8571.60n/a
B=11/21/02@8845.13n/a
Bull-11/21/02 @8845.15
(S&P500@933.76)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/02@8,341.63$8,669,595
S-1/24/03@8131.0150$84,628.863
B-4/22/03@8484.9950No Bear Market< Fully Invested at 100%$8,682,077
Year-end 12/31/03@10,453.92$10,853,833
S-5/10/04@9990.0250$10,446,118
S-8/5/04 @9963.0350< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell 9,976.53$10,471,760
B-11/3/04@10137.0550No Bear Market$10,513,929
B-11/22/04 @10489.4250< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy 10,,313.24$10,707,920
Year-end 12/31/04@10,783.01$11,032,139
S-4/14/05@10278.7550$10,583,046
B-11/18/05@ 10766.3350< Fully Invested at 100%$11,013,382
Year-end 12/30/05@10,717.50$10,994,414
S-7/12/06@11013.1850No Bear Market$11,429,717
B-10/12/06@ 11947.7050< Fully Invested at 100%$12,015,774
Year-end 12/29/06@12,463.15$12,590,913
S-8/14/07@13028.9250$13,335,079
10/9/07 Bull Mkt High:14,164.53
Year-end 12/31/07@13,264.82$13,601,240
S-1/15/08@12501.1150< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell: 12.765.02$13,220,768
Bear-3/7/08 @11893.69
(S&P500@1293.37)
n/a
B-4/18/08@12849.3650No Bull market$13,282,605
S-7/2/08@11215.5150< to 100% 'cash'$12,489,173
B-10/7/08@9447.1150B-10/7/08@9447.11n/aB-10/7/08@9447.11n/a$12,534,241
B-11/5/08@9139.2725$12,345,603
B-11/12/08@8282.66Stay @ 75 awaiting finalizing Dow Theory BuyB-11/12/08@8282.66n/aB-11/12/08@8282.66n/a$11,483,159
S-11/19/08@ 7997.28 Mkt low on all three, Hold at 75% from capitulation Buys< Holding 75% from Capitulation Buys
11/20/08 Bear Mkt Low:7,552.29
B-12/11/08@8565.09n/a
Year-end 12/31/08@8,776.39$12.032.941
B-1/2/09@9034.69
due to Bull definition being met
25Bull-1/2/09@
9034.69
(S&P500@931.80)
< Fully invested at 100%Average Buy: 8,975.93
(First In, First Out)
$12,299,560
1/2/09 Bull Mkt High:9,034.69
Capitulation%The Dow Theory%Schannep Indicator%Official Bull or Bear%COMPOSITEValue
S-1/14/09@8200.1450$11,178,706
S-2/19/09@
7465.95 due to Bear definition being met
50Bear-2/19/09 @7465.95
(S&P500@778.94)
to 100% cashAverage Sell: 7,833.05$10,700,263
B-2/23/09@7114.7850B-2/23/09@7114.78n/aB-2/23/09@7114.78n/a$10,700,499
3/9/09 Bear Mkt Low:6,547.05
B-3/20/09@7278.3825$10,838,954
B-3/23/09@7775.8625B-3/26/09@
7924.56
Definition of Bull Mkt met
n/aBull-3/26/09
@7924.56
(S&P500@832.86)
< Fully invested at 100%Average Buy: 7,320.95$11,397,370
Year-end 12/31/09@10,428.05$15,662,871
S-6/4/10@9931.9750No Bear market$15,092,403
B-6/15/10@
10404.77
broke above previous highs
50< Fully Invested at 100%$15,458,216
S-6/30/10@
9774.02 broke below previous lows
50$14,537,661
B-8/2/10@10674.38 broke above prev highs50< Fully Invested at 100%$15,227,255
Year-end 12/31/10@11,577.51$16,701,669
4/29/11 Bull Mkt High:12,810.54
S-8/2/11@11866.6250$17,409,802
B-8/8/11@10809.8525 - wait at 75% for finalized Dow Theory signal to go to 100%B-8/8/11@
10809.85
n/aB-8/8/11@10809.85n/a$16,625,165
S-8/10/11@10719.9425, retain 50% due to capitulationS-8/10/11@ 10719.94 due to Bear definition n/aBear-8/10/11 @10719.94
(S&P500@1120.76)
n/a$16,523,395
B-8/18/11@10990.5825$16.,737,224
B-8/29/11@11539.2525< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy: 11,037.38$17,374,932
S-10/3/11@ 10655.30
break to new lows, hold 50%
5010/3//11 Bear Mkt Low: 10,655.3$16,087,948
B-10/10/11@ 11433.1850< Fully Invested at 100%$16,679,754
B-10/27/11@ 12208.55n/a
Year-end 12/30/11@12,217.56$17,933,124
Bull-1/20/12 @12720.48
(S&P500@1315.38)
n/a
Year-end 12/31/12@13,104.14$19,769,142
Year-end 12/31/13@16,576.66$25,623,362
Year-end 12/31/14@17,823.07$28,184,558
S-8/21/15@16459.7550$26,442,640
B-10/7/15@16912.2950< Fully Invested at 100%$26,849,054
S-12/11/15@ 17265.2150$27,528,894
Year-end 12/31/15@17,425.03$27,675,482
B-7/8/16@18146.7350< Fully Invested at 100%$28,455,124
Year-end 12/30/16@19,762.60$31,391,018
Year-end 12/29/17@24,719.22$40,215,368
S-4/23/2018@ 24448.6950 $40,045,412
B-9/20/2018@ 26656.9850< Fully Invested at 100%$42,203,232
10/3/2018 Bull Mkt High:26,828.39
S-11/16/2018@ 25413.2250$40,387,160
S-11/23/2018@ 24285.9550< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell: 24,849.59$39,510,052
Bear-12/21/18 @22445.37
(S&P500@2416.62)
CapitulationThe Dow TheorySchannep IndicatorOfficial Bull or BearCOMPOSITEValue
B-12/24/18 @ 21792.2050B-12/24/18 @ 21792.20n/aB-12/24/18 @ 21792.20n/a12/24/2018 Bear Mkt Low:21,782.20
Year-end 12/31/18@23,327.46$41,003,072
B- 2/19/19@25891.3150< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy: 23,841.76$43,386,900
Bull-3/1/19
@26026.32
(S&P500@2803.69)
S-8/14/2019@ 25479.4250$43,221,380
B-8/30/2019@ 26403.2850< Fully Invested at 100%$44,048,976
Year-end
12/31/2019@
28,538.44
$48,026,980
2/12/2020 Bull Mkt Highs:29,551.42
S-2/25/2020@
27081.36
50$45,774,724
B-3/9/20@23851.0225 added by this capitulation to 50 already from Dow Theory buyB-3/9/20@23851.02 S-3/9/2020
@23851.02
n/a
n/a
B-3/9/20@23851.02
S-3/9/2020
@23851.02
n/a
n/a
Bear-3/9/20 @23,851.02
(S&P500@2,746.55)
and Capitulation offset
Offsetting Hold 50%$43,072,168
3/23/2020 Bear Mkt Lows:18,591.93
B-4/6/2020@
22679.99
25B-4/6/2020@
22679.99
n/aBull-4/6/2020
@22,679.99
(S&P500@2,663.68)
< Fully Invested
< Fully Invested at 100%Average Buy: 23,265.50$41,556,640
Year-end
12/31/2020@
30,606.48
$56,996,460
Year-end
12/31/2021 @36,338.30
$68,937,216

1/4/2022 Bull Mkt high:36,799.65
S-2/22/2022 @33596.6150$ 63,904,404
S-4/11/2022@34,308.0850< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell:
33,952.345
$ 64,673,880

Bear-6/13/22 @30516.64
(S&P500 @3749.63)
6/17/22-Market low29,888.78
B-8/10/2022 @33309.5150$65,006,200
B-8/12/2022@33,761.0550<
Fully invested at 100%
Average Buy 33,535.28
$65,455,056
S-9/15/2022
@30961.82
50$60,152,428
S-9/30/2022
@28725.51
50< to 100% 'cash'Average Sell:
29,843.67
$58,036,216
9/30/22-Market low28,725.51
B-11/10/2022
@33715.37
50$58,298,472
Year-end
12/30/2022 @33,147.25
$58,041,076
CapitulationThe Dow Theory for the 21st CenturyBlay Timing IndicatorBuy or Sell Date/Level
Definition of "Official" Bull or 
Bear met
COMPOSITE Indicator
Signal
VALUE
B-4/20/23 @33,786.6250<
Fully invested at 100%
$59,198,632
Bull -6/13/23 @34,212.12 (S&P500 @4,369.00)
S-10/20/2023
@33,127.28
50$58,676,628
B-12/1/2023 @36,245.5050<
Fully invested at 100%
$61,699,152
Year-end
12/29/2023 @37,689.54
$64,269,508
S-1/4/24 @37440.34 50$63,864,924
B-1/17/24 @37,266.6750<
Fully invested at 100%
$63,803,260

NOTE: This is a 13.34% compound annual increase since 12/31/53 to 12/31/23 (70 years) v. a 10.74% gain for Buy & Hold over the same period.

My thanks to Tom Halgren, a subscriber with a sharp eye for detail, for finding numerous typos/errors/mistakes in the previously shown results. He and I believe this/his recalculation is as true and correct as is possible to construct.

The chart below helps you visualize the strong outperformance of the Composite v. Buy and Hold while experiencing significantly smaller drawdowns from the end of 1953 to 2021:

01 composite v. bah at 2021 edited

The above performance chart was produced for illustration purposes only based on a hypothetical $10,000 investment amount and should not be used as the basis for making investment decisions. The chart is based on the annual rate of return calculation gross of any fees,

The results following full (100%) BUY signals are:

BUY:Average3 Months later:6 Months later:9 Months later:One Year later:To Next full SELL:
DateAdj'd levelLevelGainLevelGainLevelGainLevelGainDateLevelGain
1/25/1954287.19296.43.2%343.4819.6%356.3424.10%39738.20%2/5/1957490.670.8%
5/5/1958455.92506.9511.2%550.6820.8%586.1228.60%625.937.30%2/16/1960627.837.7%
2/20/1961654705.967.9%723.5410.6%730.0911.60%717.559.70%5/10/1962666.451.9%
7/31/1962568.56589.773.7%589.773.7%682.820.10%695.422.30%5/6/1966917.3961.4%
12/27/1966804.45873.728.6%869.398.1%933.1416.00%894.9411.20%1/22/1968868.287.9%
9/24/1968921.99952.323.3%913.92-0.9%3/7/1969913.92-0.9%
8/21/1970722.92761.575.3%878.5621.5%921.8727.50%880.9121.90%2/26/1973935.5529.4%
10/21/1974702.73641.9-8.7%815.8616.1%854.7421.60%846.8220.50%10/31/1977874.5624.5%
6/5/1978836.98886.615.9%843.730.8%10/26/1978843.730.8%
6/11/1980687.25941.337.0%908.4532.2%967.6740.80%1007.4246.60%8/31/1981920.3333.9%
9/3/1982908.151031.3613.6%1138.0625.3%1213.0433.60%1215.4533.80%2/22/19841188.5530.9%
8/9/19841241.941218.97-1.8%1289.973.9%1260.271.50%1320.796.30%10/16/19872329.7287.6%
1/5/19881821.381997.519.7%2158.6118.5%2106.5115.70%2190.5420.30%8/23/19902553.1240.2%
11/12/19902511.892874.7514.4%2920.1716.3%3001.3419.50%3054.1121.60%8/27/19988168.44225.2%
9/14/19987742.218695.612.3%9876.3527.6%10490.5135.50%10910.3340.90%9/23/199910616.3737.1%
6/11/20019565.819382.38-1.9%7/3/20019382.38-1.9%
8/14/20028381.298542.131.9%7908.79-5.6%8647.823.20%9310.5611.10%8/5/20049547.2713.9%
11/22/200410313.2410611.22.9%10471.911.5%10569.892.50%10871.435.40%1/15/200812223.4418.5%
12/8/20089381.477733.4-17.6%2/19/20097733.4-17.6%
3/23/20097445.328322.9111.8%9748.5530.9%10466.4440.60%10888.8346.30%8/10/201110825.7445.4%
8/29/201111539.2511555.630.4%12952.0712.5%12441.588.10%14107.4813.90%4/23/201824448.69124.3%
9/20/201826656.9824998.64-6.2%11/16/201825413.22-6.2%
2/19/19258913125763.99-0.5%26135.790.9%27934.027.9%29348.0313.4%3/9/202023851.02-7.9%
4/6/2022679.9926287.0315.9%27772.7622.4%30829.4035.9%33430.2447.4%4/11/202234,308.08
51.27%
8/12/2233,535.2829,843.67-11.0%9/30/202229,843.67-11.0%
4/20/2334,212.1235,225.184.26%33,127.28-1.95%????
Average:4.85%13.9%19.9%22.40%35.89%
Median:3.7%16.1%20.10%21.60%29.4%

With the invaluable help of Subscriber Tom Halgren, I constructed the Composite (based on the DJIA total return) starting on 12/29/78. Its signals have been derived from using the DT21C and the Blay Timing Indicator (BTI)

DATE% INVESTEDDow Industr.Start Equity% annual
12/29/7850805.011.00
12/31/79100838.741.098.70%
12/31/80100963.991.3221.55%
12/31/8150874.991.438.15%
12/31/821001046.541.7824.84%
12/30/831001258.642.1922.58%
12/31/841001211.572.253.04%
12/31/851001546.673.0033.19%
12/31/861001895.953.8126.90%
12/31/87501938.835.7751.48%
12/30/881002168.576.4011.01%
12/29/89502753.208.1627.44%
12/31/901002633.669.2313.14%
12/31/911003168.8311.4624.13%
12/31/921003301.1112.297.22%
12/31/931003754.0914.3716.92%
12/30/941003834.4415.064.80%
12/29/951005117.1220.5736.60%
12/31/961006448.2726.4628.64%
12/31/971007908.2432.9924.70%
12/31/981009181.4341.9827.23%
12/31/995011497.1250.0619.24%
12/29/00010786.8549.14-1.82%
12/31/0110010021.5057.5417.09%
12/31/021008341.6356.67-1.52%
12/31/0310010453.9273.7730.17%
12/31/0410010783.0176.964.33%
12/30/0510010717.5076.70-0.34%
12/29/0610012463.1591.1318.81%
12/31/07013264.8297.356.83%
12/31/08758776.3989.98-7.57%
12/31/0910010428.05117.1330.16%
12/31/1010011577.51125.657.28%
12/30/1110012217.56137.749.62%
12/31/1210013104.14151.8410.24%
12/31/1310016576.66196.8129.61%
12/31/1410017823.07209.746.57%
12/31/15017425.03194.86-7.10%
12/30/1610019762.60212.368.98%
12/29/1710024719.22272.0628.11%
12/31/185023327.46288.185.93%
12/31/1910028538.44334.7116.15%
12/31/2010030606.48414.3423.79%
12/31/2110036338.30501.1520.95%
12/30/225033147.25445.93-11.02%
12/29/2310037689.54493.7810.73%
Ave. Annual15.50%
CAGR Annual14.77%

NOTE: This is a 14.77% compound annual increase since 12/28/78 to 12/31/23  v. a 12.09% gain for Buy & Hold over the same period.

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