Gains from BTI Buy Signals

So how does it work out in the market? The following shows the results for the S&P500 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and a year after BUY signals with the average gains being +8.34%, +12.82%, +21.63% and +24.22% respectively. The average gain to the next SELL Signal has been 36.24%. Some of the Buy signals correspond to Capitulation (shown with a “YES” in the “Cap” column).

For an easier view: Download spreadsheet containing Gains from Buy signals

						3 months			6 months			9 months		12 months			To SELL signal
Type	Date/Time	% Bought	Capitul.	Total % pos	Price	Price	Gain		Price	Gain		Price	Gain	Price	Gain		Sell date	Level	% Profit
Start	1978-07-06

Buy	1978-07-06	1		1	94.32	103.06	0.0927		95.79	0.0156	6						1978-11-24	95.79	0.0156

Buy	1978-12-11	1		1	97.11	99.84	0.0281		102.85	0.0591		107.51	0.1071	107.67	0.1087		1980-03-18	104.1	0.072

Buy	1980-03-19	1		1	104.31	116.26	0.1146		128.87	0.2355		132.89	0.274	128.52	0.2321	10	1981-02-25	128.52	0.2321

Buy	1981-09-10	1		1	120.14	115.65	-0.0374	1									1981-09-23	115.65	-0.0374

Buy	1981-11-24	1		1	123.51	111.51	-0.0972	2									1982-02-23	111.51	-0.0972

Buy	1982-08-30	1		1	117.66	134.2	0.1406		148.06	0.2584		164.46	0.3978	162.14	0.378		1984-02-23	154.29	0.3113

Buy	1984-03-09	1		1	154.35	155.17	0.0053		164.37	0.0649		162.76	0.0545	179.1	0.1603		1987-10-16	282.69	0.8315	13
					282.69
Buy	1987-10-19	1		1	224.83	246.38	0.0959	3									1987-11-24	246.38	0.0959

Buy	1987-12-03	0.5	YES	0.5	225.21	267.3	0.1869		266.44	0.1831		258.35	0.1472	272.48	0.2099		1990-08-20	328.51	0.4587

Buy	1988-03-10	0.5		1	263.84	270.19	0.0241		266.44	0.0099		277.03	0.05	293.92	0.114		1990-08-20	328.51	0.2451

Buy	1990-08-23	0.5	YES	0.5	307.06	316.03	0.0292		365.64	0.1908		374.95	0.2211	391.33	0.2744		1998-08-28	1027.25	2.3454

Buy	1991-02-07	0.5		1	356.52	383.25	0.075		376.16	0.0551		389.96	0.0938	413.5	0.1598		1998-08-28	1027.25	1.8813

Buy	1998-08-31	0.5	YES	0.5	957.55	1163.62	0.2152		1227.7	0.2851		1294.81	0.3522	1320.41	0.3789		1999-09-23	1280.77	0.3375

Buy	1998-09-01	0.5		1	994.25	1163.62	0.1703		1246.64	0.2538		1294.26	0.3017	1331.07	0.3388		1999-09-23	1280.77	0.2882

Buy	1999-10-08	1		1	1336.02	1441.47	0.0789		1516.35	0.135		3351.6	0.1045	1408.99	0.0546		2000-10-13	1374.1	0.0285

Buy	2001-09-20	0.5	YES	0.5	984.54	1149.56	0.1676		1148.7	0.1667		989.14	0.0047	920.47	-0.0651	11	2002-07-10	920.47	-0.0651	14

Buy	2002-07-19	0.5	YES	0.5	847.75	879.2	0.0371		901.78	0.0637		892.01	0.0522	978.8	0.1546		2007-11-27	1428.22	0.6847

Buy	2002-10-09	0.25	YES	0.75	776.76	879.2	0.1319		878.29	0.1307		978.8	0.2601	1033.78	0.3309		2007-11-27	1428.22	0.8387

Buy	2003-02-07	0.25		1	829.69	933.41	0.125		977.59	0.1783		1058.05	0.2752	1142.76	0.3773		2007-11-27	1428.22	0.7214

Buy	2008-03-25	1		1	1352.98	1403.58	0.0374	4									2008-05-12	1403.58	0.0374

Buy	2008-10-07	0.5	YES	0.5	996.23	906.65	-0.0899		778.94	-0.2181	7						2009-02-19	778.94	-0.2181

Buy	2008-11-12	0.25	YES	0.75	852.3	906.65	0.0638		778.94	-0.0861	8						2009-02-19	778.94	-0.0861

Buy	2009-02-23	0.5	YES	0.5	743.33	887	0.1933		1026.13	0.3805		1094.9	0.473	1094.6	0.3415		2010-06-08	1062	0.4287

Buy	2009-03-27	0.5		1	815.94	918.9	0.1262		1044.38	0.28		1127.78	0.3822	1166.59	0.4297		2010-06-08	1062	0.3016

Buy	2010-06-09	1		1	1055.69	1092.04	0.0344	5									2010-06-23	1092.04	0.0344

Buy	2010-07-09	0.5		0.5	1077.95	1158.06	0.0743		1273.85	0.1817		1333.51	0.2371	1343.8	0.2466		2011-08-09	1172.53	0.0877

Buy	2011-12-07	1		1	1261.01	1370.87	0.0871		1357.65	0.0513		1437.92	0.1403	1418.55	0.1249		2015-03-04	2098.53	0.6642

Buy	2015-03-24	1		1	2091.5	2124.2	0.0156		1867.62	-0.107	9						2015-08-25	1867.62	-0.107

Buy	2016-08-23	1		1	2186.9	2198.18	0.0052		2363.81	0.0809		2404.39	0.0995	2444.04	0.1176		2018-10-23	2740.69	0.2532

Buy	2018-12-24	0.5	YES	0.5	2351.1	2805.37	0.1932		2913.78	0.2393		2984.87	0.2696	3223.38	0.371		2020-02-28	2954.22	0.2565

Buy	2019-04-02	0.5		1	2867.24	2973.01	0.0369		2940.25	-0.011		3257.85	0.1362	2954.22	0.0303	12	2020-02-28	2954.22	0.0303

Buy	2020-03-09	0.5	YES	0.5	2746.56	3232.39	0.1769		3426.96	0.2477		3699.12	0.3468	3875.44	0.411		2022-03-08	4170.7	0.5185

Buy	2020-04-07	0.5		0.5	2659.41	3232.39	0.2155		3360.97	0.2638		3748.14	0.4094	4073.94	0.5319		2022-03-08	4170.7	0.5683

Buy	2023-04-20	1		1	4129.79	4534.87	0.0981		4224.16	0.0229		4688.68	0.1353

						Average	8.34%			12.82%			21.63%		24.22%				36.23%
	1, 7, 8, 13,14	Exit due to Bear market definition

	2	Ends at Blay Timing Indicator (BTI) SELL on 9/23/1981	13	Ends at BTI SELL on 1/4/24
	3	Ends at BTI SELL on 11/24/1987
	4	Ends at BTI SELL on 11/24/1987
	5	Ends at BTI SELL on 6/23/2010
	6	Ends at BTI SELL on 11/24/1978
	9	Ends at BTI SELL on 8/25/2015
	10	Ends at BTI SELL on 2/25/1981
	11	Ends at BTI SELL on 7/10/2022
	12	End at BTI SELL on 2/28/2020