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Complete Record of ‘Dow Theory for the 21st Century’

The “rules” for signals as described in my book, the “Dow Theory for the 21st Century“, date from 2008 with a half-dozen “tweaks”/updates from 2008 through 2020, shown below, were not all in place throughout the record period.  Most signals however, over the last 25 years were followed in real-time and the record below incorporates all current rules to show what performance would have been attained had they been followed precisely. The rules can be summarized as follows:

1) A secondary reaction that interrupts the primary trend must satisfy specific criteria as to extent and duration. The highest-yet point reached in the bounce from a falling market, or a lowest-yet point reached in the pullback from a rising market, must occur at least 10 calendar days after the previous minimum or maximum on 2 of the 3 indexes (Dow Jones Industrials, Transports, S&P500), with at least 8 trading days later as the average of the three. This definition was changed from “two weeks” in 2010. The timeframe was corrected to one week rather than no time requirement in 2008 for the first bounce following capitulation, by which we mean to be 1/2 the normal, or 5 trading days confirmed by the S&P500 (SPX) and one of either the Dow Industrials (DJIA) or the Dow Transports (DJT).  To qualify as a secondary reaction, the price change must be at least 3% on the S&P500 index and one of the other two indexes.  Since 1953 the average such decline has been 6.7% for each of the Dow Industrials and the S&P500, and 9% for the Dow Transports.  When the down market is punctuated by a capitulation, that is the time to start to buy with a 50% commitment, a second capitulation would be the time to add another 25%.

2) In a rising market that secondary reaction will be a pullback, after which a bounce must rise at least 3% on the S&P500 and at least one of the Dow Jones Industrials or the Dow Transports (clarified in 2020), and take at least 2 trading days (eliminates ‘one-day wonders’, the possibility of ‘flash crashes’, and usually occurs only after a capitulation and was clarified in 2010).

3) In a falling market the secondary reaction will be a bounce, after which a pullback must drop at least 3% on the S&P500 and at least one of the Dow Jones Industrials or the Dow Transports, and last at least 2 trading days.  If capitulation had previously occurred then the pullback would be the time to add 25%.

4) After that, whenever either the Industrials or Transports confirm and join the S&P500 when they fall below the previous pullback lows from a rising market, or rise above the bounce highs from a downtrending market, that qualifies as a signal; Sell in the case of newer lows (the time to go to a full cash position), or a Buy signal in the case of newer highs (the time to get fully invested).  After Buy signals, whenever ALL three indexes close above any previous highs of a bull market that would be an “in the clear” reaffirmation, or below the lows of a bear market, those would be continuation indications. If ALL three were not in agreement that would indicate a divergence and more time would be required for clarification.

5) In the event the market reverses after a Sell signal, and reaches yet higher pre-Sell bounce highs on ALL three indexes, or if the highs of a successfully completed secondary reaction are exceeded by ALL three indexes, a reversal of the signal is called for and a Buy signal is given.  In the case of a Sell signal at or following Capitulation, if a new bull market had not yet met our definition of a 19% increase in the DJIA and the S&P500, then return to 50% invested if one Capitulation had occurred or to 75% if there had been a second.
In the event the market reverses after a Buy signal, and reaches yet lower pre-Buy pullback lows on ALL three indexes, or if the lows of a successfully completed secondary reaction are broached by ALL three indexes, a reversal of the signal is called for and a Sell signal is given (clarified in 2020) .  In the case of a Buy signal following Capitulation, then a breaking of the Bear market lows by ALL three indexes is necessary for a Sell signal

6). Dates shown are dates of signals.  [Here is a tweak for possibly getting better execution prices (but not a part of the record shown): ‘Action’ dates can be days later, usually in the case of 3% bounces/setbacks. The most likely time for this to prove beneficial is in the case of the 3% pullback when the market is coming your way (down), where you would ‘wait and watch’ for additional intervening ‘obvious’ DOWN days, and on the first ‘obvious’ UP day execute the Buy order (may require waiting until the last minutes of the trading day).  Does NOT apply to Capitulation Buys. For buy signals the opposite procedure.]

      The invested position is show below as 25% (buying up to that amount), 50%, 75% or 100% (totally invested, or 100% sold out in the case of a Sell).  The 25% partial Buys occur at the time of a second capitulation, or a 3% pullback by the S&P500 index (after a qualifying secondary reaction bounce, and only following capitulation).  The Buy or Sell goes to 100%  when step 3) or 4) above is complete, or in the event the definition of a Bull or Bear market is met (a 19% advance on BOTH the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P500 Index in the case of a Bull market, or a 16% decline on BOTH in the case of a Bear market).  There are other configurations for such signals as spelled out in my book as well as in the free area of this website but the above is the most common way they develop.
All of the following signals involve the S&P500 to finalize the signal.  Results shown include dividends received and interest earned on 3 month Treasuries as received quarterly. Market levels are for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. When Bull/Bear markets become “official” both the DJIA and the S&P500 levels are shown.

NOTE: The computations necessary to determine capitulation were not available on a real time basis before 1968 and there was no way to make investments in the total stock market in accordance with these signals until the first S&P tracking Index Fund came along in 1976. In addition, some of the ‘rules’ were only spelled out in the book published in 2008 and some recent clarifications were made since the book between 2010 and 2021, therefore this record is partly from backtesting. Some signals were not acted on at the time (most notably Sell on 2/25/20, recognized but delayed execution) or acted on in error (Sell on 4/9/18 by deferring to the original Dow Theory). The trades taken in real-time which have been documented are for the most part the same as shown below. Following the current rules explicitly throughout the time shown would have resulted in the record shown.

Signal Results $10,000 becomesDateDow Jones Industrials%ChangeStatusDateDow Jones Transports%ChangeDateS&P500%Change
9/14/1953255.49Mkt lows9/14/195390.569/14/195322.71
$10,000 12/31/1953280.90Year-end level
BUY 100%$10,0264/1/1954306.2719.9%Definition of Bull
4/1/1954 -DJIA@ 306.27 (S&P:27.17)
4/1/54102.079.2%4/1/5427.1719.6%
$13,68212/31/1954404.31Year-end level
$17,19612/30/1955488.40Year-end level
4/6/1956521.05Bull Market Highs/Not5/9/1956181.233/20/195648.87
28-May468.8110.0%Pullback28-May161.610.8%28-May44.19.8%
2-Aug520.9511.1%Bounce/Bull Mkt High25-Jul171.376.0%2-Aug49.7412.8%
$18,36412/31/1956499.47Year-end level
SELL 100%$17,3582/5/1957469.96Breakdown22-Aug161.282/5/195743.89
10/17/1957Definition of Bear 10/17/1957 @436.87 (S&P@40.65)
10/22/1957419.79Bear Market Lows12/24/195795.6717-Dec39.42
$17,85212/31/1957435.69Year-end level
2/4/1958458.659.3%Bounce2/4/1958111.1616.2%2/4/195842.467.7%
25-Feb436.894.7%Pullback7-Apr100.679.4%25-Feb40.614.4%
BUY 100%$17,934 4/21/1958450.72Breakup21-Apr111.611-Mar42.51
7/25/1958Definition of Bull 7/25/1958@501.76 (S&P@46.97)
$23,84912/31/1958583.65Year-end level
8/3/1959678.1Mkt highs7/8/1959173.568/3/195960.71
22-Sep616.459.1%Pullback17-Nov146.6315.5%22-Sep55.149.2%
$28,59212/31/1959679.36Year-end level
1/5/1960685.4711.2%New high/Bounce1/5/1960160.439.4%1/5/196060.399.5%
SELL 100%$25,8382/16/1960611.33Breakdown3-Mar142.9816-Feb54.73
25-Oct566.05Mkt lows29-Sep123.3725-Oct52.30
$26,43612/30/1960615.89Year-end level
BUY 100%$26,5443/6/1961674.4619.1.%3/6/1961144.7117.3%2/2/196162.3019.1%
13-Feb637.142.5%Pullback13-Feb139.693.6%4/2464.403.4%
2/20/1961653.65Breakup23-Feb144.9120-Feb62.36
12/13/1961734.91Bull Market Highs11-Oct152.9212-Dec72.64
$29,46812/29/1961731.14Year-end level
1/29/1962689.926.1%Pullback20-Dec140.668.0%1/29/196267.96.5%
15-Mar723.544.9%Bounce2/2/1962149.836.5%15-Mar71.064.7%
SELL 100%$27,8884/12/1962685.67Breakdown26-Apr140.2812-Apr67.71
5/25/1962Definition of Bear 5/25/1962@611.88 (S&P@59.47)
Capitulation BUY 50%$28,03222-Jun539.1922-Jun116.0522-Jun52.68
6/26/1962535.76Bear Market Lows25-Jun115.8926-Jun52.32
12-Jul590.2710.2%Bounce16-Jul125.498.3%12-Jul58.0310.9%
BUY to 75%$28,9297/18/1962571.243.2%3% Pullback* was low for DJIA and S&P and
newer low for DJT
18-Jul
8-Aug
122.58
119.28
2.3%
4.9%
18-Jul56.203.2%
7/30/1962591.44Breakup27-Aug125.1631-Jul58.23
BUY to 100%$29,980 7/31/1962 597.93
11/29/1962Definition of Bull 11/29/62@652.61 (S&P@42.41)
$33,19512/31/1962652.1Year-end level
$40,07412/31/1963762.95Year-end level
$47,38012/31/1964874.13Year-end level
$54,23312/31/1965969.26Year-end level
2/9/1966995.15Bull Market Highs2/15/1966271.722/9/196694.06
15-Mar911.088.4%Pullback15-Mar243.6010.3%15-Mar87.357.1%
21-Apr954.734.8%Bounce20-Apr265.979.2%21-Apr92.425.2%
SELL 100%$50,1725/9/1966886.80Breakdown5-May240.969-May86.32
8/22/1966Definition of Bear 8/22/1966@792.03
(S&P@78.24)
10/7/1966744.32Bear Market Lows7-Oct184.347-Oct73.2
16-Nov820.8710.3%Bounce16-Nov208.7913.3%16-Nov82.3712.5%
2-Dec789.473.8%Pullback22-Nov199.544.4%22-Nov79.673.3%
BUY 100%$51,61112/13/1966816.7Breakup13-Dec208.8212-Dec83
$49,73812/30/1966785.69Year-end level
4/24/1967Definition of Bull 4/24/1967@887.53
(S&P@92.62)
8/9/1967926.72Mkt highs8/4/1967274.498/4/196795.83
30-Aug893.723.6%Pullback22-Aug256.066.7%27-Aug92.643.3%
25-Sep943.085.5%New high/Bounce18-Sep265.113.5%25-Sep97.595.3%
SELL 100%$56,32511/2/1967864.85Breakdown10-Oct254.592-Nov92.34
$56,72812/29/1967905.11Year-end level
3/21/1968825.13Mkt lows3/5/1968214.583/3/196887.72
15-Jul923.7211.9%Bounce8-Jul269.6125.6%11-Jul102.3916.7%
9-Aug869.655.9%Pullback9-Aug245.768.8%2-Aug96.635.6%
9-Sep924.98Breakup1-Oct270.2424-Sep102.59
BUY 100%$58,8439/24/1968938.28
12/3/1968985.21Bull Market Highs1-Dec279.4829-Nov108.37
$59,69212/31/1968943.75Year-end level
1/8/1969921.256.5%Pullback1/13/1969260.047.0%1/13/1969100.47.4%
13-Feb952.73.4%Bounce/new high7-Feb279.887.6%13-Feb103.713.3%
SELL 100%$58,2452/20/1969916.65Breakdown25-Feb257.0720-Feb99.79
7/28/1969Definition of Bear 7/28/1969@806.23 (S&P@90.21)
29-Jul801.96Mkt lows30-Jul193.1929-Jul89.48
2-Sep837.784.5%Bounce22-Aug202.024.6%22-Aug95.927.2%
8-Sep811.843.1%Pullback9-Oct194.723.6%8-Oct92.673.4%
BUY 100%$60,62410/16/1969838.77Breakup27-Oct202.3716-Oct96.37
10-Nov863.05Mkt highs28-Oct202.4510-Nov98.33
17-Dec769.9310.8%Pullback16-Dec169.4316.3%17-Dec89.29.3%
$58.34912/31/1969800.36Year-end level
1/5/1970811.315.4%Bounce1/5/1970183.318.2%1/5/197093.464.8%
SELL 100%$56,2171/26/1970768.88Breakdown26-Jan168.9823-Jan89.07
Capitulation BUY 50%$57,42225-May641.3625-May133.8725-May70.25
5/26/1970631.16Bear Market Lows26-May131.5326-May69.23
3-Jun713.8613.1%Bounce3-Jun146.9811.7%3-Jun78.5213.4%
BUY to 75%$59,9336/10/70 <<
7-Jul
694.35
669.36
2.7%
6.2%
3% Pullback* and Full Pullback/new low10-Jun
7-Jul
141.44
116.69
3.8%
20.6%
10-Jun
7-Jul
75.48
71.23
3.9%
9.3%
16-Jul723.44Breakup28-Sep148.2121-Aug79.24
BUY to 100%$63,8158/21/1970745.41
9/4/1970Definition of Bull 9/4/1970@771.15
(S&P@82.83)
$72,82012/31/1970838.92Year-end level
4/28/1971950.82Mkt highs4/28/1971232.794/28/1971104.77
28-Jun873.18.2%Pullback28-Jun208.8910.3%22-Jun97.596.9%
12-Jul903.43.5%Bounce12-Jul220.215.4%12-Jul100.823.3%
SELL 100%$77,1697/28/1971872.01Breakdown28-Jul208.0628-Jul97.07
10-Aug839.59Mkt lows4-Aug203.619-Aug93.53
BUY 100%$77,5869/7/1971916.47Break above previous
Secondary Bounce High on all three
16-Aug225.227-Sep101.15
$76,21512/31/1971890.2Year-end level
$90,08212/29/19721020.02Year-end level
1/11/19731051.7Bull Market Highs12/11/1972240.411/11/1973120.24
8-Feb967.198.0%Pullback8-Feb202.115.9%8-Feb113.165.9%
13-Feb996.793.1%Bounce12-Feb207.132.5%13-Feb116.783.2%
SELL 100%$84,6892/26/1973953.79Breakdown21-Feb201.2126-Feb112.19
8/21/1973Definition of Bear 8/21/1973@857.84
(S&P@100.89)
$89,67312/31/1973850.86Year-end level
Capitulation BUY 50%$94,0148/23/1974686.88/23/1974143.078/23/197471.55
Capitulation BUY to 75%$89,22130-Sep607.8730-Sep128.4830-Sep63.54
4-Oct584.56Bear Mkt Lows/Not3-Oct125.933-Oct62.28
14-Oct673.515.2%Bounce14-Oct150.6519.6%14-Oct72.7416.8%
16-Oct642.294.6%3% Pullback* was full Pullback low on all16-Oct145.003.7%16-Oct70.333.3%
BUY to 100%$96,34510/21/1974669.82Breakup21-Oct152.4321-Oct73.5
12/6/1974577.6Bear Mkt Low/Not16-Dec138.316-Dec65.01
$89,67012/31/1974616.24Year-end level
1/28/1975Definition of Bull 1/28/1975@687.35
(S&P@77.26)
$129,66912/31/1975852.41Year-end level
9/21/19761014.79Bull Market Highs7/14/1976231.279/21/1976107.83
12-Oct932.358.1%Pullback12-Oct203.8511.9%22-Oct99.967.3%
1-Nov966.093.6%Bounce/high5/18/1977246.6421.0%1-Nov103.13.1%
SELL 100%$146,15811/9/1976930.77Breakdown10/24/1977201.748-Nov99.6
$147,09512/29/19761004.65Year-end level
$154,58612/30/1977831.17Year-end level
1/10/1978Definition of Bear 1/10/1978@781.53
(S&P@90.17)
2/28/1978742.12Bear Market Lows3/9/1978199.313/6/197886.9
17-May858.3715.6%Bounce22-May231.316.1%17-May99.614.6%
26-May831.693.1%Pullback26-May223.73.3%26-May96.583.0%
BUY 100%$158,6346/5/1978863.83Breakup6-Jun231.355-Jun99.95
8/3/1978Definition of Bull 8/3/1978@886.87
(S&P@103.51)
9/11/1978907.74Bull Market Highs8-Sep261.4912-Sep106.99
20-Sep857.165.6%Pullback22-Sep241.587.6%27-Sep101.665.0%
11-Oct901.425.2%Bounce12-Oct250.153.5%11-Oct105.393.7%
SELL 100%$162,09810/17/1978866.34Breakdown17-Oct237.4417-Oct101.26
14-Nov785.26Bear Mkt lows/Not14-Nov205.4914-Nov92.49
6-Dec821.94.7%Bounce6-Dec218.26.2%6-Dec97.495.4%
18-Dec787.514.2%Pullback/Bear Low20-Dec203.456.8%18-Dec93.444.2%
$164,70212/29/1978805.01Year-end level
BUY 100%$164,8921/4/1979826.14Breakup1/15/1979218.7926-Dec97.52
$176,74612/31/1979838.74Year-end level
$214,71812/31/1980963.99Year-end level
4/27/19811024.05Bull Market Highs4/16/1981447.383/25/1981137.11
11-May963.445.9%Pullback11-May410.288.3%11-May129.715.4%
15-Jun1011.995.0%Bounce1-Jun430.925.0%27-May133.773.1%
SELL 100%$219,4097/2/1981959.19Breakdown2-Jul409.62-Jul128.64
9/24/1981Definition of Bear
9/24/1981@845.69
(S&P@115.01)
$232,82812/31/1981874.99Year-end level
6/18/1982788.62Mkt Low6/21/1982303.736/21107.20
7/20/1982833.425.7%Bounce7/12323.436.5%7/20/1982111.544.0%
Failed Secondary
Reaction
8/6/1982784.33Breakdown8/5/1982301.33`8/4/1982106.14
8/12/1982776.92Bear Market Lows8/12/1982292.128/12/1982102.42
BUY 100%$249,0868/20/1982869.28Break above previous Secondary Bounce High on all three8/20/1982324.038/20/1982113.02
9/3/1982Definition of Bull 9/3/1982@925.13
(S&P@122.68)
$306,38112/31/19821046.54Year-end level
6/22/19831245.69Mkt High6/27/1983590.636/22/1983170.99
7/181189.914.5%Pullback7/18556.485.8%7/18163.954.1%
7/261243.684.5%Bounce7/26586.692.3%7/26170.353.9%
SELL 100%$360,4677/29/19831199.21Breakdown7/29550.767/29162.58
8/91168.26Mkt Lows8/25524.418/8159.18
BUY 100% $366,26810/7/19831272.15Break above previous
Secondary Bounce
9/20590.0310/7170.80
10/101284.65Mkt High10/24593.2910/10172.65
11/71214.845.4%Pullback10/28576.612.8%11/8161.766.3%
11/291287.195.9%Bounce/Newer Highs11/22612.576.2% 11/29167.913.8%
$365,94912/30/19831258.64Year-end level
SELL 100%$359,2651/25/19841231.88Breakdown1/25573.001/25161.67
4/51130.55Mkt lows4/6484.162/23154.29
5/21186.564.9%Bounce5/2517.086.8%5/2161.904.9%
7/241086.579.1%Pullback/Newer Lows7/25444.0314.1%7/24147.829.1%
BUY 100%$376,1688/3/841202.07Breakup8/3525.668/3162.35
$386,04212/31/19841211.57Year-end level
7/19/19851359.54Mkt Highs7/17/85702.607/17/85195.64
9/20 1297.934.5%Pullback9/30
640.568.8%9/25180.667.6%
Newer High
No SELL
11/111431.8810.3%Newer Highs12/4702.629.7%11/11197.289.2%
$514,18112/31/19851546.67Year-end level
$652,47112/31/19861895.95Year-end level
8/25/19872722.42Bull Market Highs8/14/19871101.168/25/1987336.77
21-Sep2492.828.4%Pullback21-Sep1005.88.7%21-Sep310.547.8%
2-Oct2640.995.9%Bounce2-Oct1064.415.8%5-Oct328.085.6%
10/9 2482.21Breakdown15-Oct980.2412-Oct309.39
SELL 100%$868,87910/12/19872471.44
10/16/1987Definition of Bear
10/16/1987@2246.74
(S&P@282.70)
Capitulation BUY 50%$869,80810/19/19871738.74Bear Markt Lows/Not26-Oct674.0119-Oct224.84
Capitulation BUY to 75%$884,2093-Dec1776.53Bear Market Low/Not3-Dec673.573-Dec225.21
$947,65112/31/19871938.83Year-end level
1/7/882051.8915.3%Bounce1/7/88789.4317.1%1/7/88261.0716.1%
1/20
1879.148.4%3% Pullback* and full pullbacks shown1/11
1/20
741.576.1%1/20242.637.1%
BUY to 100%$980,6602/19/19882014.59Breakup2/16/1988791.142/19/1988261.61
2/29/1988Definition of Bull 2/29/1988@2071.62
(S&P@267.82)
7/5/19882158.61Mkt High7/5/1988908.457/5/1988275.81
7/27/19882053.704.9%Pullback7/27/1988855.735.8%7/27/1988262.504.8%
8/3/19882134.073.9%Bounce8/3/1988891.584.2%8/3/1988272.974.0%
SELL 100%$1.006,8168/10/19882034.14Breakdown8/10/1988848.578/10/1988261.89
8/23/19881989.33Mkt Lows8/23/1988831.348/22/1988256.97
BUY 100%$1/017,36410/7/19882150.25Break above previous
Secondary Bounce High on all three
9/21/1988892.7710/7/1988278.07
$1,034,49612/30/19882168.57Year-end level
9/1/19892752.09Mkt Highs9/5/19891532.019/1/1989353.73
25-Sep2659.193.4%Pullback26-Sep1424.967.0%14-Sep343.163.0%
9-Oct2791.415.0%New high/Bounce9-Oct1518.496.6%9-Oct359.84.8%
SELL 100%$1,258,52710/13/19892569.26Breakdown13-Oct1406.2913-Oct333.62
$1,277,73212/29/19892753.2Year-end level
1/30/19902543.24Mkt lows1/30/19901031.831/30/1990322.98
2/152649.554.2%Bounce2/91088.195.4%2/15334.883.7%
2/232564.193.2%Pullback2/201067.921.9%2/23324.143.2%
BUY 100%$1,293,6063/2/19902660.36Breakup2/261099.403/2335.54
15-Jun2935.89Mkt High/Bull Mkt High6-Jun1212.774-Jun367.4
26-Jun2842.333.2%Pullback5-Jul1131.026.7%26-Jun352.064.2%
7/16/19902999.755.5%Bull Market Highs/Bounce16-Jul1189.65.2%16-Jul368.955.2%
SELL100%$1,415,1088/2/19902864.60Breakdown30-Jul11252-Aug351.41
Capitulation BUY 50%$1,420,83723-Aug2483.42Definition of Bear 8/23/1990@2483.42
(S&P@307.06)
23-Aug861.3123-Aug307.06
10/11/19902365.1Bear Market Lows17-Oct821.9311-Oct295.46
19-Oct2520.796.6%Bounce22-Oct883.697.7%22-Oct314.766.5%
BUY to 75%$1,420,42710/26/1990 <<
10/29
2436.14
2430.20
3.5%
3.6%
3% Pullback* and Full Pullback shown10/26
10/39
837.09
822.30
5.3%
6.9%
10/26/90
10/29
304.71
301.88
3.2%
4.1%
BUY 100%$1,469,09711/12/19902540.35Breakup5-Dec903.6712-Nov319.48
$1,531,03012/31/19902633.66Year-end level
2/6/1991Definition of Bull 2/6/1991@2830.94
(S&P@358.07)
$1,900,10612/31/19913168.83Year-end level
$2,037,22112/31/19923301.11Year-end level
$2,381,97812/31/19933754.09Year-end level
$2,496,34112/30/19943834.44Year-end level
$3,409,93112/29/19955117.12Year-end level
$4,386,63412/31/19966448.27Year-end level
$5,469,95412/31/19977908.25Year-end level
5/13/19989211.84Mkt High/Bull High4/16/19983686.024/22/19981130.54
15-Jun8627.936.3%Pullback2-Jun3259.311.60%15-Jun1077.014.70%
7/17/19989337.978.2%Bull Highs/Bounce14-Jul3618.7311.0%17-Jul1184.7510.0%
SELL 100%$5,926,5038/4/19988487.31Breakdown29-Jul3244.934-Aug1072.12
Capitulation BUY 50%$5,946,82431-Aug7539.07Definition of Bear 8/31/1998@7539.07 (S&P@957.28)
Bear Market Lows
4-Sep2616.7531-Aug957.28
8-Sep8020.786.4%Bounce8-Sep2749.305.1%8-Sep1023.466.9%
BUY to 75%$5,982,20710-Sep7615.545.1%3% Pullback* was full pullback on all three10-Sep2631.514.3%10-Sep980.194.2%
BUY to 100%$6,178,1629/14/19987945.35Breakup14-Sep2805.1414-Sep1029.72
11/6/1998Definition of Bull 11/6/1998@8975.46
(S&P@1141.01)
$7,174,62512/31/19989181.43Year-end level
5/13/199911107.19Mkt Highs/Bull High5/12/19993783.55/13/19991367.56
27-May10466.935.8%Pullback25-Jun3316.1112.4%27-May1281.416.3%
16-Jul11209.847.1%Mkt Highs/Bounce2-Jul3515.996.0%16-Jul1418.7810.7%
2-Aug10645.96Pullback/New Low11-Aug3130.5310-Aug1281.43
25-Aug11326.04Mkt High/Bounce25-Aug3309.2525-Aug1381.79
SELL100%$8,155,5379/23/199910318.59Break 1st Pullback23-Sep2895.9823-Sep1280.41
$8,261,42512/31/199911497.12Year-end level
1/14/200011722.98Bull Market Highs/Not16-Nov3099.673/24/20001527.46
$8,723,81312/29/200010786.85Year-end level
3/16/2001Definition of Bear 3/16/2001@9823.41
(S&P@1150.53)
Capitulation BUY 50%$8,963,4599/20/20018376.219/20/20012033.869/20/2001984.54
9/21/20018235.81Bear Market Lows20-Sep2033.8621-Sep965.80
26-Oct9545.1715.9%Bounce11-Oct2314.8013.8%29-Oct1104.6114.4%
BUY to 75%$9,382,64710.30/2001<<
10/31/2001
9121.98
9075.14
4.4%
4.8%
3% Pullback* and full Pullback lows shown30-Oct
31-Oct
2195.26
2195.84
5.2%
5.2%
30-Oct
31-Oct
1059.79
1059.78
4.0%
4.1%
BUY to 100%$9,748,11811/6/20019591.12Breakup8-Nov2320.986-Nov1118.86
11/19/2001Definition of Bull 11/19/2001@9976.46
(S&P@1151.06)
$10,215,10612/31/200110021.5Year-end level
3/19/200210635.25Bull Market Highs3/4/20023049.963/19/20021170.29
6-May9808.047.8%Pullback10-May2643.113.3%7-May1049.4910.3%
17-May10353.085.6%Bounce17-May2798.365.9%17-May1106.595.4%
SELL100%$9,973,3056/3/20029709.79Breakdown25-Jun2627.923-Jun1040.68
7/10/2002Definition of Bear
7/10/2002@8813.50
(S&P@920.47)
Capitulation BUY 50%$9,993,77319-Jul8019.2619-Jul2332.1819-Jul847.75
23-Jul7702.34Mkt Lows23-Jul2160.3523-Jul797.70
31-Jul8736.5913.4%Bounce30-Jul2389.5110.6%31-Jul911.6214.3%
BUY to 75%$10,184,1142-Aug <<
5-Aug
8313.13
8043.63
4.8%
7.9%
3% Pullback* and full Pullback lows shown2-Aug
5-Aug
2202.03
2132.27
7.8%
10.7%
2-Aug
3-Aug
864.24
834.60
5.2%
8.4%
BUY to 100%$10,586,1588/14/20028743.31Breakup21-Aug2432.2114-Aug919.62
22-Aug9053.64Mkt highs22-Aug2463.9622-Aug962.7
5-Sep8283.78.5%Pullback5-Sep2204.2610.5%3-Sep878.028.8%
10-Sep8602.613.8%Bounce11-Sep2297.324.2%10-Sep909.583.6%
SELL 100%$9,957,6699/17/20028207.55Breakdown16-Sep2203.69.17-Sep873.52
Capitulation BUY 50%$9,966,27010/9/20027286.27Bear Market Lows9-Oct2013.029-Oct776.76
BUY to 100%
$11,138,27811/05/20028678.27Breakup previous bounce (Rule #5) by all three Indexes10/212338.5311/5915.39
11/21/20028845.13Definition of Bull 11/21/2002@8845.15
(S&P@933.76)
11/21 2328.78 11/21933.76
11/278931.68Mkt highs27-Nov 2371.82 27-Nov938.87
12/278303.78 7.0%Pullback27-Dec2291.66 3.37%27-Dec875.40 6.8%
$10,531,01012/31/20028341.63Year-end level
1/14/20038842.626.5%Bounce/New high1/6/20032421.716.7%1/14/2003931.666.4%
SELL 100%$10,279,8791/24/20038131.01Breakdown21-Jan2281.2324-Jan861.4
3/117524.06Mkt low/Bear low11-Mar1942.1911-Mar800.73
3/218521.9713.3%Bounce21-Mar2263.4916.5%25-Mar895.7911.9%
3/317992.136.2%Pullback31-Mar2131.215.8%31-Mar846.185.3%
BUY 100%$10,307,2794/22/20038484.99Breakup15-Apr2316,6222-Apr911.37
$12,885,56512/31/200310453.92Year-end level
2/11/200410737.7Mkt highs1/22/20043080.322/11/20041157.76
3/2410048.236.4%Pullback22-Mar2750.810.7%24-Mar1091.195.7%
4/610570.815.2%Bounce22-Apr3006.769.3%5-Apr1150.575.4%
SELL 100%$12,401,5285/10/20049990.02Breakdownnone10-May1087.12
8/129814.59Mkt Lows6-Aug2966.0812-Aug1063.23
9/1410318.165.1%Bounce6-Oct3388.7214.3%6-Oct1142.057.4%
10/259749.495.5%New low/Pullback13-Oct3282.433.1%25-Jan1094.84.1%
BUY 100%$12,487,39211/3/200410137.05Breakup21-Oct3431.693-Nov1143.2
12/28/0410854.54Mkt highs12/28/043811.6212/30/041213.55
$13,326,40912/31/200410783.01Year-end level
1/24/0510368.614.5%Pullback1/243454.789.3%1/241163.754.1%
3/410940.565.5%Bounce/Newer Highs3/73872.1712.1%3/21225.315.3%
SELL 100%$12,783,9234/14/200510278.75Breakdown4/143441.304/141162.05
4/2010012.36Mkt lows4/153382.894/201137.60
7/2910640.91 6.3%Bounce7/283817.0612.8%8/31245.049.4%
10/1310216.594.0%Pullback9/203581.456.2%10/131176.846.8%
BUY 100%$13,027,78711/18/200510766.33Breakup11/13840.0411/181248.27
$13,005,34912/30/200510717.50Year-end level
$15,452,11212/29/200612463.15Year-end level
 7/19/0714000.41Mkt highs/Bull High 7/19/075446.497/19/20071553.08
8/313181.915.6%Pullback3-Aug4873.8110.5%3-Aug1433.067.7%
8/813657.863.6%Bounce8-Aug5079.394.2%8-Aug1497.494.5%
SELL 100%$16,365,3828/14/200713028.92Breakdown8/14/20074850.258/14/20071426.54
10/9/200714164.53Bull Market Highs/Not5-Oct4997.1710/9/071565.15
$16,587,53512/31/200713264.82Year-end level
3/7/2008Definition of Bear
3/7/2008@11893.69
(S&P@1293.37)
3/10/200811740.15Mkt Lows1/17/20084140.293/10/20081273.37
4/112654.367.8%Bounce3-Apr4999.9316.5%7-Apr1372.547.5%
4/1412302.062.8%Pullback9-Apr4803.13.9%14-Apr1328.323.2%
BUY 100%$16,677,3424/18/200812849.36Breakup16-Apr5073.4118-Apr1390.33
5/213058.20Mkt highs5-Jun5492.9519-May1426.63
SELL 100% Break below last
Secondary pullback
all 3 therefore SELL 100%
$14,631,2837/2/200811215.51Pullback below last
Secondary low
therefore SELL
7/24653.137/21261.52
Capitulation BUY 50%$14,684,08010/79447.117-Oct3898.157-Oct996.23
10/278175.77Mkt Lows27-Oct3364.9827-Oct848.92
11/49625.2617.7%Bounce4-Nov4071.8121.0%4-Nov1005.7518.5%
BUY to 75%$14,463,08811/5/089139.275.0%3% Pullback* continued through Capitulation below6-Nov3605.5611.5%6-Nov904.8810.0%
Capitulation (no BUY)11/128282.6612-Nov3474.0612-Nov852.3
Newer Lows so retain 75% attributal to capitulations$13,110,69311/19/20087997.28Newer Mkt Lows all three indices reverses partial Dow Theory Buy back to capitulation Buys19-Nov3141.5219-Nov806.58
11/20/20087552.29Bear Market Lows20-Nov2988.9920-Nov752.44
12/88934.1818.3%%Bounce 12/8/083589.6320.1%12/8/08909.7020.9%
$13,827,69412/11/2008 <<
12/23
8565.09
8419.49
4.1%
5.7%
3% Pullback* Full Pullback as shown12/11
12/15
3251.73
3206.11
9.4%
10.7%
12/11
12/23
873.59
863.16
3.9%
5.1%
$14,101,21712/31/20088776.39Year-end level
BUY to 100%$14,413.6641/2/20099034.69Breakup
Definition of Bull 1/2/2009@9034.69
(S&P@931.80)
1/2/20093651.021/2/2009931.80
1/2/20099034.69Bull Market Highs1/6/20093717.361/6/09934.69
SELL 100%13,100,1531/14/20098200.14Breakdown below previous secondary lows1/143121.311/14842.62
2/19/2009Definition of Bear 2/19/2009@7465.95
(S&P@778.94)
Capitulation BUY 50%$13,103,0362/23/20097114.7823-Feb2586.723-Feb743.33
3/9/20096547.05Bear Market Lows9-Mar2146.899-Mar676.53
3/187486.5814.4%Bounce19-Mar2637.2722.8%18-Mar794.3517.4%
BUY to 75%$13,272,5783/20/2009
7278.382.8%3% Pullback* was low for all20-Mar2516.964.6%20-Mar
768.543.2%
BUY to 100%$13,956,3723/23/20097775.86Breakup23-Mar2715.2123-Mar822.92
3/26/2009Definition of Bull 3/26/2009@7924.56
(S&P@832.86)
$18,179,58412/31/200910428.05Year-end level
4/26/201011205.03Mkt highs5/3/20104806.014/23/20101217.28
5/269974.4511.0%Pullback20-May4160.5113.4%26-May1067.9612.3%
6/310255.282.8%Bounce27-May4381.985.3%3-Jun1102.833.3%
SELL 100%$18,481,0306/4/20109931.97Breakdown4-Jun4157.174-Jun1064.88
6/79816.49Mkt lows6/74037.986/71050.47
BUY 100% as market bounced above previous signals high$18,481,8486/15/1010404.77Bounce above previous signal Bounce highs15-Jun4467.2515-Jun1115.23
6/1810450.64Mkt highs6/154467.256/181117.51
SELL 100% as market broke below previous lows$17,381,2646/30/109774.02Breakdown below
previous market lows
6/304007.846/291041.24
7/29686.48Mkt Lows7/63906.237/21022.50
BUY 100% as market broke above previous market highs$17,383,6568/2/1010674.38Breakup above market highs7/264482.098/21125.86
$19,066,86812/31/201011577.51Year-end level
4/29/201112810.49Bull Mkt Highs/Not5/10/20115527.529-Apr1363.61
6/1511897.277.1%Pullback10-Jun5060.598.4%15-Jun1265.427.2%
7/2112724.417.0%Bounce/Bull Mkt High7-Jul5618.2511.0%7-Jul1353.226.9%
SELL 100%$19,841,9368/2/201111886.62Breakdown2-Aug4942.272-Aug1254.05
Capitulation BUY 50%$19,842,0128/8/201110809.85Mkt lows8-Aug4221.68-Aug1119.46
8/10/2011Definition of Bear 8/10/2011@10719.94
(S&P@1120.76)
8/1511482.907.1%Bounce15-Aug4684.447.4%15-Aug1204.497.6%
BUY to 75%$21,015,7308/18/2011 <<
8/19
10990.58
10817.65
4.3%
5.8%
3% Pullback* and full
Pullbacks shown
18-Aug
19-Aug
4299.55
4221.60
8.2%
9.9%
18-Aug
19-Aug
1140.65
1123.53
5.3%
6.7%
BUY to 100%$20,778,3528/29/201111539.25Breakupn/a29-Aug1210.08
8/3111613.53Mkt highs30-Aug4683.9631-Aug1218.89
9/2210733.837.8%Pullback22-Sep4149.9411.0%22-Sep1129.567.3%
9/2711190.614.3%Bounce27-Sep4380.275.6%27-Sep1175.384.1%
SELL 100%$19,239,27410/3/201110655.30Breakdown/Bear Mkt Lows3-Oct4038.733-Oct1099.23
BUY 100%$19,239,33010/10/201111433.18Breakup above pre-sell highs by all indexes (Rule #5)10/64422.3510/101194.89
$20,685,03612/30/201112217.56Year-end level
1/20/2012Definition of Bull 1/20/2012@12720.48
(S&P@1315.38)
5/1/201213279.32Mkt High3-Feb5368.032-Apr1419.04
5/1812369.389.1%Pullback18-May4873.769,2%18-May1295.228.7%
NO SELL as Highs above previous
Highs
exceeded by all 3
9/613292.00Newer Highs1/2/20135435.749/61432.112.8%
10/513610.14Mkt Highs5-Jul5249.1214-Sep1465.77
11/1512542.387.8%Pullback11/164891.276.8%11/151353.337.7%
12/1813350.966.4%Bounce12/205357.819.5%12/181446.796.9%
12/2812938.11NO Breakdown28-Dec5220.982.2%28-Dec1402.433.1%
$22,802,79212/31/201213104.14Year-end level
NO SELL as above previous
Secondary Highs
exceeded by all 3
1/18/201313649.70New Highs above
previous Secondary
highs
1/2/20135435.741/10/20131472.12
5/2115409.39Mkt Highs5/176549.165/211669.16
6/514960.592.9%Pullback6/56138.366.3%6/51608.903.6%
NO SELL as Highs above previous
market highs exceeded by all 3
8/2/201315460.91Newer Mkt Highs on all 3 therefore NO SELL7/186579.057/111675.02
$29,555,36612/31/201316576.66Year-end level
7/16/201417138.20Mkt Highs7/23/148468.547/24/141987.98
8/716368.274.5%Pullback8/77992.085.6%8/71909.573.9%
9/1917279.745.6%Bounce9/188676.198.6%9/182011.385.3%
SELL 100% but overiden and Not acted on as shown in October 2014 Letter10/1316321.07Breakdown10/107893.2610/101906.13
10/1616117.24Mkt Lows 10/137717.6910/151862.49
BUY 100% but overridden and Not acted on as shown in October 2014 Letter 10/3117390.52Breakup over previous Bounce Highs on all 3 indexes10/288759.3010/312108.05
12/26/201418053.71Mkt High12/29/20149217.4412/29/142090.57
$32,509,58612/31/1417823.07Year-end level
1/15/201517320.714.1%Pullback1/15/20158655.946.1%1/15/20151992.674.7%
1/22/201517813.982.8%Bounce1/22/20159143.525.6%1/22/20152063.153.5%
SELL 100%$30,500,3648/21/201516459.75Breakdown1/20/20158649.328/21/20151970.89
8/25/201515666.44New Lows8/25/20157466.978/25/20151867.61
9/16/201516739.956.9%Bounce9/17/20158215.4410.09/16/20151995.316.9%
9/28/201516001.894.4%Pullback9/28/20157675.876.6%9/28/20151881.775.9%
BUY 100%$30,502,67010/7/201516912.29Breakup10/9/20158253.1610/7/20151995.83
11/3/201517918.15New High10/23/20158295.5811/3/20152109.79
11/13/201517245.243.8%Pullback11/16/20158010.273.4%11/13/20152023.044.1%
12/1/201517888.353.7%Bounce11/20/2015
8301.803.6%12/1/20152102.633.9%
SELL 100%$31,275,02412/11/201517265.21Breakdown12/11/20157624.6412/11/20152012.37
$31,276,05412/31/201517425.03Year-end level
2/11/201615660.18New Lows2/11/20166625.532/11/20161829.08
4/20/201618096.2615.5%Bounce4/20/20168109.1922.4%6/82119.1215.9%
6/27/201617140.249.0%Pullback6/27/20167093.4012.5%6/27/20162000.535.6%
BUY 100%$31,285,6147/8/201618146.73Breakup/BUY10/5/20168138.017/8/20162129.90
8/15/1618636.05Mkt High9/88078.608/152190.15
11/4/1617888.284.0%Pullback9/147755.404.0%11/42085.174.8%
NO SELL as newer
market highs exceeded by all 3
11/10/1618807.87Newer Mkt Highs on all 3 therefore NO SELL11/78330.3611/212198.18
$34,513,46812/30/1619762.60Year-end level
$44,215,56412/29/201724719.22Year-end level
1/12/201826616.71Mkt High1/12/201811373.381/26/20182872.87
2/8/201823860.4610.4%Pullback2/09/201810136.6110.9%2/8/20182581.0010.2%
2/26/201825709.277.7%Bounce2/26/201810769.846.2%3/9/20182786.578.0%
3/23/201823533.20Breakdown4/9/201810119.36NO Breakdown
NO SELL as Highs above previous
market highs exceeded by all 3
9/20/201826656.97Breakup above previous High on all 38/21/201811436.368/24/20182874.69
10/3/201826828.39Bull Mkt Highs9/14/201811570.849/20/20182930.75
10/29/201824442.938.9%%Pullback10/299896.1114.5%10/292641.249.9%
11/8/201826191.227.1%Bounce12/310850.449.6%11/72813.896.9%
SELL 100%$44,310,00811/23/201824285.95Breakdown12/109876.5411/232632.55
12/21/2018Definition of Bear 12/21/2018@22445.37
(S&P@2416.62)
Capitulation BUY 50%$44,399,35212/24/201821792.20Bear Market Lows12/248637.1512/242351.10
$45,984,41212/31/201823327.46Year-end level
BUY to 100%$48,821,0723/1/201926026.32Definition of Bull 3/1/2019@26026.32
(S&P@2803.69)
7/15/20192735916.Mkt Highs7/16 10794.597/263025.86
8/5/201925717.7416.4%Pullback8/510040.237.0%8/52844.745.9%
8/8/201926378.192.5%% Bounce8/810342.383.0%8/82938.093.3%
SELL 100%$48,354,2088/14/201925479.42Breakdown8/279734.688/142840.60
8/14/201925479.42Mkt Lows8/279734.688/142840.60
BUY 100% on break-up above previous bounce highs all 3$48,395,1648/30/2019
9/5/2019 <<
26403.28
26728.15 <<
Break-up above previous bounce High9/510369.929/52976.005.9%
$52,765,66412/31/201928538.44Year-end level
1/17/202029348.10Mkt Highs/Bull High1/1611304.971/173329.62
1/3128256.033.7%Pullback1/3010566.746.5%1/313225.523.1%
2/529290.853.7%Bounce2/510928.843.42/53334.693.4%
2/629379.77Breakup - Reconfirms existing BUY signal2/53334.69
2/12/202029551.42Bull Market Highs1/16
11304.972/193386.15
SELL 100% as all 3 indexes dropped through previous secondary lows$50,291,1962/24/2020
2/25/2020<<
27960.80
27081.36
Pullback below lows of previous secondary Pullback lows on all 3 indexes2/24
2/25
10509.92
10061.46
2/253128.21
BUY 50% as Capitulation occurred $50,307,6523/9/202023851.02Definition of Bear 3/9/2020@23851.02
(S&P@2746.55)
3/98083.493/92746.56
3/23/202018591.93Bear Market Lows3/236703.633/232237.39
BUY to 100%$49,137,9364/6/202022679.99Definition of Bull 4/6/2020@22679.99
(S&P@2663.68)
4/64/62663.68
$67,394,48812/31/202030606.48Year-end level
$81,513,632
12/31/202136338.30Year-end level
1/4/2022
36799.65
Bull Mkt Highs11/2/2021
17039.38
1/34796.56
1/27/2022
34160.78
7.2%
Pullback1/27
14809.93
13.1%
1/274326.51
9.79%
2/9/2022
35768.06
4.7%
Bounce2/215739.82
6.3%
2/24,589.346.1%
SELL100%
(2/22/22)
$75,562,672
2/18/2022
34079.18
Breakdown2/2214734.98
2/224304.71
Definition of Bear-6/13/22 @30516.64
(S&P500 @3749.63)
6/17/202229888.78Market Lows6/1712868.606/163666.77
BUY 100%
(8/10/22)
$75,993,7128/10/202233309.51Breakup over previous Bounce Highs on all 3 indexes7/2914975.078/104210.24
8/16/202234,152.01
Market highs8/1615,209.96
8/164,305.20

9/6/202231,145.30
8.8%
Pullback9/615,209.96
10.2%
9/6
4,305.20
9.2%
9/9/2022
32,151.71
3.2%
Bounce9/914,060.91
2.9%
9/94,305.20
4.1%
SELL 100%
(9/15/22)
$70,791,5689/13/202231,104.97
Breakdown 9/1413,655.99
3,901.35
9/30/202228,725.51New Lows9/2611,999.4010/12/223577.03
10/28/202232,861.8014.4%Bounce10/3113,583.7913.2%10/283901.069.1%
11/3/202232,001.252.6%Pullback11/213,094.433.6%11/33719.894.6%
BUY 100%
(11/10/22)
$71,184,23211/8/202233,160.83Breakup11/713,738.9511/103956.37
$70,176,73612/30/202233,147.25Year-end level
6/13/2023Definition of Bull -6/13/23 @34,212.12 (S&P500 @4,369.00)
8/1/202335,630.68Bull Mkt Highs7/2816,695.327/31/20234,588.96
10/3/202333,002.386.0%Pullback10/5
14,678.2012.1%10/3
4,229.457.8%
10/17/202333,997.653.0%Bounce10/1115,124.983.04%10/114,376.953.5%
SELL 100%
(10/20/23)
$71,365,43210/23/202332,936.41Breakdown10/1814583.6110/204,224.16
BUY 100%
(12/1/23)
$71,800,21611/03/202334,061.32Breakup over previous Bounce Highs on all 3 indexes11/7/20234,378.38
$74,791,37612/29/23$37,689.54 Year-end level

3% Pullback* is the date that the S&P500 index first drops 3% even as the total Pullback may well go further.
NOTE: This is a 13.58% compound annual increase from 12/31/53 to 12/31/23 (70 years). Buy & Hold grew at a 10.74% rate.

Q&A on the Dow Theory for the 21st Century

RESULTS FOLLOWING BUY SIGNALS:

BUYThree MonthsSix Months9 MonthsOne YearTo Next SELL
DateLevelLevelGainLevelGainLevelGainLevelGainDateLevelGain
4/1/1954306.27334.129.1%359.8817.5%408.8933.5%413.8435.1%2/5/1957469.9653.4%
4/21/1958450.72493.369.5%543.7220.6%597.6632.6%629.2339.6%2/16/1960611.3335.6%
3/6/1961674.46703.794.3%726.017.6%730.098.2%708.175.5%4/12/1962685.67 1.7%
7/31/1962561.88*589.774.9%682.821.5%717.827.7%696.423.9%5/9/1966886.8057.8%
12/13/1966816.7844.823.4%886.158.5%923.7713.1%864.85**5.9%11/2/1967864.85  5.9%
9/24/1968938.28952.321.5%916.65**-2.3%2/20/1969916.65 -2.3%
10/16/1969838.77782.6-5.0%768.88**-8.3%1/26/1970768.88 -8.3%
8/21/1970680.62*761.5710.6%878.5629.0%921.8735.4%872.01**28.1%7/28/1971872.0128.1%
9/7/1971916.47857.40-6.4%946.873.3%944.083.0%962.455.0%2/26/1973953.79 4.0%
10/21/1974662.82*641.9-3.1%815.8623.1%854.7428.9%842.2527.1%11/9/1976930.7740.4%
6/5/1978863.83886.612.6%866.34**0.3%10/17/1978866.34  0.3%
1/4/1979826.14869.85.3%835.581.1%890.17.7%828.840.3%7/2/1981959.19 16.1%
8/20/1982869.281021.2517.5%1092.8225.7%1190.0236.9%1199.21**37.9%7/29/831199.2137.9%
10/7/19831272.151286.641.1%1231.88**-3.1%1/25/841231.88-3.1%
8/3/19841202.071216.651.2%1247.233.7%1242.263.3%1353.0412.5%10/12/872471.44105.6%
2/19/19881817.15*1958.727.8%2034.14**11.9%8/10/882034.1411.9%
10/7/19882150.252194.292.0%2304.807.2%2487.8615.7%2785.5229.5%10/13/19892569.2619.5%
3/2/19902660.362900.979.0%2864.60**7.7%8/2/19902864.6  7.7%
11/12/19902485.83*2874.7515.6%2920.1717.5%3001.3420.7%3054.1122.8%8/4/19988487.31241.4%
9/14/19987659.75*8820.7315.1%9876.3528.9%10606.3938.4%11028.7444.0%9/23/199910318.5934.7%
11/6/20018866.37*9653.398.8%9808.0410.6%9709.79**9.5%6/3/20029709.799.5%
8/14/20028273.74*8207.55**-0.8%9/17/20028207.55-0.8%
11/21/20027988.70*8131.00**1.7%1/24/20038131.001.7%
4/22/20038484.999158.457.9%9598.2413.1%10623.1825.2%10461.223.3%5/10/20049990.0217.7%
11/3/200410137.0510593.14.5%10278.751.4%10697.595.5%4/14/200510278.751.4%
11/18/200510766.3311115.323.2%11128.293.3%11381.475.7%12342.5614.6%8/14/200713028.9221.0%
4/18/200812849.3611215.51**-12.7%7/2/200811215.51
.
 -12.7%
1/2/20099267.04*8200.14**-11.5%1/14/20098200.14-11.5%
3/23/20097320.95*8322.9113.7%9748.5533.1%10466.4442.9%10888.8248.7%6/4/20109931.9735.6%
6/15/201010404.779774.02-6.0%6/30/20109774.02-6.0%
8/2/201010674.3811188.724.8%12041.9712.8%12807.3620.0%11866.6111.1%8/2/201111886.6211.1%
8/29/201111037.38*10655.30**-3.4%10/3/201110655.3-3.4%
10/10/201111433.1812462.479.0%12715.9311.2%12653.1110.7%13344.9716.7%  8/21/201516459.7544.0%
10/7/201516912.2917265.21**2.0%12/11/201517265.212.0%
7/8/201618146.7318240.490.5%21414.3410.0%20662.9413.8%21414.3418.0%11/23/201824285.9533.8%
3/1/201926026.3224815.04-4.6%25479.42**-1.7%8/14/201925479.42-1.7%
9/5/201926728.1527677.785.6%27081.36**1.3%2/25/202027081.361.3%
4/6/202023265.50*26287.0313.0%27772.7619.4%30829.4032.5%33430.2441.4%2/22/202233596.6144.4%
8/10/202233309.5130961.82**-7.0%9/15/202230961.82-7.0%
11/10/202333715.3733699.88-0.05%
33561.81-0.46%35123.364.17%33127.28**-1.74%
10/20/202333127.28-1.74%
12/1/202336,245.50N/A yet
Average:3.37%10.48%19.79%22.24%28.87%

*Average entry level considering early buying due to Capitulation, including any partial and reversed signals **Sell occurred during the period

RESULTS FOLLOWING SELL SIGNALS:

Dow Theory for 21st CenturyFurther Percent Decline to lows (or to lows adjusted for partial buys at Capitulation)
SELLDJIALow Prior to Next BuyMonths to Lows:Bear Market?Recession?
2/5/1957469.9610/22/1957419.7910.6%8.6YesYes
2/16/1960611.3310/25/1960566.057.4%8.3YesYes
4/12/1962685.576/22/1962537*21.7%*Adjusted for 1/2 bought at Capitulation above low2.3YesNo
5/9/1966886.8010/7/1966744.3216.2%5.0YesNo
11/2/1967864.853/21/1968825.134.6%4.6NoNo
2/20/1969916.657/29/1969801.9612.5%5.3YesNo
1/26/1970768.885/25/1970634*17.6%*Adjusted for 1/2 bought at Capitulation above low4.0YesYes
7/28/1971872.018/10/1971797.978.5%0.5NoNo
2/26/1973953.7910/4/1974584*38.7%*Adjusted for 1/2 bought at Capitulations above low17.9YesYes
11/9/1976930.772/28/1978742.1220.2%19.3YesNo
10/17/1978866.3411/14/1978785.269.4%0.9YesNo
7/2/1981959.198/12/1982776.92
19.0%13.3YesYes
7/29/19831199.218/9/831168.28.2.6%0.3NoNo
1/25/19841231.887/24/19841086.5911.8%6.0NoNo
10/12/19872471.4410/19/19871738.7429.6%0.2YesNo
8/10/19882034.148/23/19881989.332.2%0.5NoNo
10/13/19892569.261/30/19902543.241.0%3.6NoNo
8/2/19902864.6010/11/902395*16.4%Adjusted for 1/2 bought at Capitulation above low2.4YesYes
8/4/19988487.318/31/987539.0711.2%0.9YesNo
9/23/199910318.599/21/20018271*19.8%Adjusted for 1/2 bought at Capitulation above low23.9YesNo
6/3/20029709.797/23/20027782*19.9%Adjusted for 1/2 bought at Capitulation above low1.5YesNo
9/17/20028207.5510/9/20027286.2711.2%0.7YesNo
1/24/20038131.013/11/20037524.067.5%1.6NoNo
5/10/20049990.0210/25/20049749.492.4%5.5NoNo
4/14/200510278.754/20/200510012.362.6%0.2NoNo
8/14/200713028.923/10/200811740.159.9%6.9YesYes
7/2/200811215.5110/27/20088111*27.7%Adjusted for 1/2 bought above low3.6YesYes
1/14/20098200.143/9/20096830*8.0%Adjusted for 1/2 bought above low1.8YesYes
6/4/20109931.976/7/20109816.491.1%0.1NoNo
6/30/20109774.027/2/20109686.480.9%0.1NoNo
8/2/201111886.628/8/201110809.859.0%0.2YesNo
10/3/201110655.3010/3/2011106550.0%0NoNo
8/21/201516459.758/25/201515666.144.8%0.1NoNo
12/11/201517265.212/11/201615660.189.3%2.0NoNo
11/23/201824285.9512/24/201821792.2011.4%1.0YesNo
8/14/201925479.428/14/201926479.420.0%0.0NoNo
2/25/202027081.363/23/2021221.47*21.6%Adjusted for 1/2 bought above low1.0YesYes
2/22/202233596.616/17/2229888.7811.04%4.86YesYes **
9/15/202230,961.829/30/2228,725.517.22%0.5YesNo
10/20/202333,127.2810/27/2332,417.59
2.15%

0.25NoNo
Ave.decline AFTER DowTheory21stCtry SELL signals11.22% Average:4 months60% Yes72.5% No
*Partial Capitulation 
Buys before actual lows
** Q1 and Q2 2022 experienced negative GDP growth. Not officially labeled as recession, albeit the economy contracted and stocks earnings declined
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