Buy and Hold, Tried and True?

Despite Wall Street being a two-way street, still most investors simply Buy and Hold stocks for the long-term.  The results below show how $10,000 would have grown to $3,000,000 by buying and holding over the 53 years up until 2007. It then shows a drop of nearly $1,000,000 in just the one year of 2008!  Fortunately, that $1,000,000 was made back up in the next three years, and more than tripled by 2022.  This result is an 10.74% compound annual increase with dividends reinvested since 12/31/1953 to 12/31/2023.  This is the benchmark against which the results of timing the market should be compared.  You will see that our interpretation of the ‘original’ Dow Theory, the Dow Theory for the 21st Century, the Schannep Timing Indicator, the Blay Timing Indicator and finally, the Composite Timing Indicator, all have beaten the ‘Buy and Hold’ benchmark handily!

Buy & Hold results from 1953-1997 were calculated by Hulbert Financial Digest using the Dow Jones Industrial Average with dividends reinvested yearly.  Those results are virtually identical to the results shown here which have been calculated with dividends invested quarterly on the average account value for the period.  My thanks to Tom Halgren, a subscriber with a computer capability that escapes me, for calculating these results. He and I believe this/his calculation is as true and correct as is possible to construct.