Complete Dow Theory Record

The following “Official” Detailed Record of The Dow Theory was compiled from articles in Barron’s, early editions of Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, and elsewhere as explained in detail at the end of the compilation. The type of Signal is indicated by (B-1), (S-2), etc, which are fully described in my book Dow Theory for the 21st Century, and may be found on this website at “Basics of Dow Theory“.

The ‘rules’ for the original Dow Theory signals can be abbreviated as follows:

1. The primary trend is interrupted by a secondary reaction usually lasting a minimum of ‘three weeks to as many months”:
2. In a Bull market that secondary reaction will be a pullback, after which a bounce must rise at least 3% on one of the Dow Jones Industrials or the Dow Jones Transports but fall short of the previous highs.
3. In a Bear market the secondary reaction will be a bounce, after which a pullback must drop at least 3% on one of the indices.
4. After that, both of the indices will fall below the previous pullback lows after a bull market, or rise above the bounce highs from a bear market, to qualify as a Sell or Buy signal.
5. In the event the market reverses after a Sell signal to reach yet newer highs, or lower lows after a Buy, on both of the indices, a reversal of the previous signal is called for. The same is true for breaking above/below the previous secondary reaction highs/lows.

NOTE: This is an 11.05% compound annual increase from 12/31/53 through 12/31/2023 (70 years). Buy & Hold grew at a 10.74% rate with substantially larger drawdowns. Please note that there are a few differences in this record from the one shown in Appendix A of my book Dow Theory for the 21^st Century reflecting a stricter adherence to the traditional interpretation of the Dow Theory. Subscribers are shown how my interpretation for the Dow Theory in the 21st Century would have had a 13.58% compound annual increase over the same period with even smaller drawdowns.

Edwards & Magee in Technical Analysis of Stock Trends, showed signals from 1897 through 1956 and thereafter use my interpretation to the current date.
Some signals were compiled from studies by Robert Rhea, his successor Perry P. Greiner, Hale C. Whitcomb, Harvey A.. Krow, and Ned Davis in Barron’s (9/5/77) “How Now, Dow Theory?” by John C. Boland.  Their signals began in 1920 and ran through 1975.
Jack Schannep has added, confirmed and updated the signals to the present, using the Dow/Hamilton/Rhea method.
Other contributors were Ned Davis of Ned Davis Research, quoted in Barron’s (7/9/84) Editorial Commentary by Robert M. Bleiberg “Way Above Average, For a Century Dow Theory Has Served Investors Well”.
Richard Russell was the long-time publisher of the Dow Theory Letters.
Charles B. Carlson was formerly Editor of Dow Theory Forecasts.
Richard Moroney is the current Editor of Dow Theory Forecasts.