Gains from Buy Signals

So how does The Traditional Dow Theory work out in the market?

The following shows the results for the S&P500 3 months, 6 months, 9 months, and a year after the BUY Signals with the average gains being +4.56%, +9.6%, +15,32% and +20.40% respectively. The average gain to the next SELL Signal was +33.51%.

Buy3 Months:6 Months:9 Months:1 Year:To Next Signal
DateLevelLevelGainLevelGainLevelGainLevelGainDateLevelGain
1/19/195425.68 27.768.1%29.9816.7%31.9124.3%34.9636.1%10/1/195644.774.1%
5/2/195843.69 47.498.7%51.3317.5%55.2126.4%57.6532.0%3/3/196054.7825.4%
2/23/196162.59 66.686.5%67.988.6%71.7014.6%70.1612.1%4/26/196267.057.1%
11/9/196258.78 66.1712.6%70.3519.7% 70.4819.9%73.3624.8%5/5/196687.5348.9%
1/11/196783.47 88.886.5%92.4810.8%96.3715.5%94.4213.1%(1) 10/24/196794.4213.1%
10/1/1968102.86 103.861.0%97.98-4.7%(2)2/25/196997.98 -4.7%
10/27/196997.94 88.17-10.%(3)1/26/197088.17 -10.0%
9/28/197083.86 91.098.6%99.9519.2%97.7416.6%97.0715.8%(4)7/28/197197.0715.8%
2/10/1972105.59 105.42-0.2%111.055.2%113.737.7%114.688.6%2/23/1973113.167.2%
1/27/197575.3786.6214.9%89.2918.5%89.7319.1%99.0731.4%10/24/197791.6321.6%
6/6/1978100.32 105.385.0%97.49-2.8%98.05-2.3%97.87-2.4%7/2/1981128.6428.2%
10/7/1982128.80 145.1812.7%151.7617.8%167.5630.1%170.832.6%1/25/1984164.8428.0%
11/6/1984170.41180.435.9%179.995.6%187.9310.3%192.7613.1%10/15/1987298.0874.9%
2/29/1988267.82253.42-.5.4%262.33-2.0%270.911.2%288.867.9%10/13/1989333.6224.6%
6/4/1990367.40 344.86-6.1%(5)8/3/1990344.86 -6.1%
1/18/1991332.23 388.4616.9%385.3716.0%392.5018.1%418.8626.1%10/5/1992407.5722.7%
11/25/1992429.19442.343.1%448.854.6%460.137.2%462.367.7%8/4/19981072.12149.8%
11/2/19981111.60  1261.9913.5%1335.1820.1%1328.0519.5%1280.4115.2%(6)9/23/19991280.4115.2%
11/8/20011118.54 1096.20-2.0%1088.85-2.7%976.14-12.7%(7)6/25/2002976.14 -12.7%
1/6/2003929.01878.85-5.4%985.76.1%1029.8510.9%1123.6821.0%11/21/20071416.7752.5%
4/18/20081390.331260.68-9.3%1106.39-20.4%(8)9/29/20081106.39 -20.4%
4/9/2009856.56 882.683.0%1071.4925.1%1144.9833.4%1194.3739.4%6/30/20101030.7120.3%
9/27/20101142.161257.5410.1%1313.815.0%1280.1012.1%1254.059.8%(9)8/2/20111254.059.8%
12/23/20111265.331397.1110.4%1278.181.0%(10)6/4/20121278.18 -1.0%
1/18/20131485.981541.613.7%1689.3713.7%1744.5017.4%1838.7023.7%8/20/20152035.7337.0%
10/9/20152014.891990.26-1.2%(11)1/6/20161990.26 -1.3%
4/19/20162100.802037.41 -3.0%(12)6/24/20162037.41 -3.0%
9/7/20162186.162241.352.5%2368.398.3%2433.1411.3%2465.1012.8%12/10/20182637.72
20.66%
4/1/20192941.762964.33
-1.93% (13)5/13/20192964.33 -1.93%
11/4/20193078.27

3297.59
7.12% (14)3/9/20202746.56
-10.78%
5/6/20202848.42
3349.16
17.58%3509.44
23.21%3886.83
36.46%4201.62
47.51%2/22/20224304.76
51.13%
11/8/20223,828.114117.867.57%
4138.12
8.09%4398.9514.91%4217.0410.15% (15)
Average:4.66%9.55%15.30%19.93%34.8%

(1) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 10/24/67 @ 94.42
(2) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 2/25/69 @ 97.98
(3) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 1/26/70 @ 88.17
(4) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 7/28/71 @ 97.07
(5) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 8/3/90 @ 344.86
(6) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 9/23/99 @ 1280.41
(7) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 6/25/02 @ 976.14

(8) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 9/29/08 @ 1106.39

(9) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 8/2/11 @ 1254.05
(10) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 6/4/12 @ 1278.18

(11) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 1/6/16 @ 1990.26

(12) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 6/24/16 @2037.41

(13) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 5/13/19 @2964.33

(13) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 5/13/19 @2964.33

(14) Ends at Dow Theory SELL on 3/9/20 @2746.56

(15) Ends at Dow  Theory SELL on 10/23/20 @4217.04

 

 

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