The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 5,962 points above where it was 14 years ago. The three major Dow Theorists had been under a BUY signal for many years up until the SELL signal on August 4th, 1998. After agreeing on that signal their interpretations diverged considerably until they came together again briefly on November 21st, 2007, and again on August 2nd, 2011.
The results of the points captured (including saved from losing) on long and short positions by each Dow Theorist for the last 14 years:
- Schannep +7,281 points
- Buy and Hold +5,962 points
- Moroney -8,058 points
- Russell -12,633 points
| Jack Schannep | Richard Russell | Richard Moroney | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TheDowTheory.com | Dow Theory Letters | Dow Theory Forecasts | ||||
| Signal: | Date: | Dow Jones: | Date: | Dow Jones: | Date: | Dow Jones: |
| SELL | 8/4/1998 | 8487.31 | 8/4/1998 | 8487.31 | 8/4/1998 | 8487.31 |
| See 8/1/98 Letter | See 7/29/98 Letter | See 8/3?/98 Letter | ||||
| Profit to | +462.92 pts | (loss) | -2527.38 pts | (loss) | -2527.38 pts | |
| BUY | 9/15/1998 | 8024.39 | 5/3/1999 | 11014.69 | 5/3/1999 | 11014.69 |
| 9/15/98 Letter | 5/19/99 Letter | 4/26/99 Letter | ||||
| Profit to | +2294.20 pts | (loss) | -696.10 pts | (loss) | -994.98 pts | |
| SELL | 9/23/1999 | 10318.59 | 9/23/1999 | 10318.59 | 10/15/1999 | 10019.71 |
| 9/23/99 Letter | 9/23/99 Letter | 10/18/99 Letter | ||||
| Profit to | +731.07 pts | (loss) | -349.15 pts | |||
| BUY | 11/8/2001 | 9587.52 | no | signal | 3/1/2002 | 10368.86 |
| 11/18/01 Letter | 3/4/02 Letter | |||||
| Loss to | -460.90 pts | |||||
| SELL | 6/25/2002 | 9126.62 | no | signal | no | signal |
| 6/25/02 Letter | ||||||
| Profit to | +403.88 pts | |||||
| BUY | 25% on 7/19/02 | 8019.26 | no | signal | no | signal |
| 7/19/02 e-mail | ||||||
| 75% on 8/21/02 | 8957.23 | |||||
| 8/21/02 e-mail | ||||||
| Loss to | -779.70 pts | no | signal | (loss) | -3082.59 pts | |
| SELL | 75% on 9/24/02 | 7683.13 | 10/9/2002 | 7286.27 | ||
| 9/24/02 e-mail | 10/10/02 Hotline | |||||
| Loss to | -746.36 pts | |||||
| BUY | 75% on 11/5/02 | 8678.27 | no | signal | no | signal |
| 11/5/02 Letter | ||||||
| Loss to | -558.38 pts | |||||
| SELL | 1/24/2003 | 8131.01 | no | signal | no | signal |
| 2/11/03 Letter | ||||||
| Loss to | -451.67 pts | (loss) | -2994.38 pts | (loss) | -1752.71 pts | |
| BUY | 5/2/2003 | 8582.68 | 5/7/2007 | 13312.97 | 6/4/2003 | 9038.98 |
| 5/2/03 e-mail | 5/7/07 posting | 6/4/03 Hotline | ||||
| Profit to | +4446.24 pts | |||||
| SELL | 8/14/2007 | 13,028.92 | no | signal | no | signal |
| 8/14/07 Letter | ||||||
| Loss to | -1037.09 pts | |||||
| BUY | 50% on10/5/07 | 14,066.01 | no | signal | no | signal |
| 10/5/07 e-mail | ||||||
| Profit to | 0.00 pts (net) | (loss) | -513.93 pts | +3760.06 pts | ||
| SELL | 50% on 11/21/07 | 12,799.04 | 11/21/2007 | 12,799.04 | 11/21/2007 | 12,799.04 |
| 11/22/07 e-mail | 11/21/07 post | 11/21/07 Hotline | ||||
| TOTAL | 8/98 - 11/07 | +4304.21 pts | -6731.79 pts | -4946.75 pts | ||
| Since the competition was getting a little lopsided I have started it over for more recent results: | ||||||
| Loss to | -50.32 pts | +186.61 pts | (loss) | -50.32 pts | ||
| BUY | 50% on 4/18/08 | 12,849.36 | 4/7/2008 | 12,612.43 | 4/18/2008 | 12,849.36 |
| 4/25/08 e-mail | 4/7/08 post | 4/18/08 Hotline | ||||
| Profit to | 0.00 pts (net) | (loss) | -2002.77 pts | -2483.91 pts | ||
| SELL | 50% on 6/20/08 | 11,842.69 | 9/17/2008 | 10,609.66 | 9/29/2008 | 10,365.45 |
| 6/22/08 e-mail | 9/16 MktWatch | 9/29/08 Hotline | ||||
| Profit to | +2731.16 pts | |||||
| BUY | 25% on 10/7/08 | 9,447.11 | ||||
| 10/7/08 e-mail | ||||||
| BUY | 25% on 11/5/08 | 9,139.27 | ||||
| 11/5/08 e-mail | ||||||
| BUY | 25% on 11/12/08 | 8,282.66 | ||||
| 11/26/08 e-mail | ||||||
| BUY | 25% on 12/8/08 | 8,934.18 | ||||
| 12/8/08 e-mail | Profit to | +1839.96 pts | ||||
| Corrected Average Price: | 9,111.53 | BUY 1/7/09 | 8,769.70 | no | signal | |
| Loss to | (2/19/09 loss) | -1526.03 pts | ||||
| SELL | 50% on 2/2/09 | 7,936.83 | 1/7/09 Letter | |||
| 2/2/09 e-mail | (loss) | -1303.75 pts | ||||
| SELL | 17% on 2/19/09 | 7,465.95 | SELL 2/19/09 | 7,465.95 | ||
| 2/19/09 e-mail | 2/19 MarketWatch | Note: "Letters" does not follow his own advice per his own admission | Note: "Forecasts" is always invested: | |||
| SELL | 33% on 2/23/09 | 7,114.78 | 60-70% during Sell signals, | |||
| 2/23/09 e-mail | 85-90% during Buys | |||||
| Actual Average Price: | 7,585.50 | |||||
| Loss to | -190.36 pts | (loss) | -1603.34 pts | |||
| BUY | 3/23/2009 | 7,775.86 | BUY 7/23/09 | 9,069.29 | ||
| 7/27 Mkt Watch | ||||||
| Note: "Schannep" follows his own advice with a real money portfolio shown each month | Profit to | +1248.87 pts | no | signal | ||
| SELL 11/20/09 | 10,318.16 | |||||
| 11/27 MktWatch | ||||||
| (loss) | - 415.51pts | (loss) | -368.19 pts | |||
| BUY 3/17/10 | 10,733.67 | BUY 3/17/10 | 10,733.67 | |||
| 3/18 MktWatch | ||||||
| (loss) | - 665.66 pts | |||||
| SELL 5/20/10 | 10,068.01 | |||||
| Profit to | +1998.16 pts | (loss) | -959.65 pts | |||
| SELL | 6/30/2010 | 9774.02 | SELL6/30/10 | 9774.02 | ||
| 6/30/10 Letter | (loss) | -457.42 pts | 6/30 Hotline | |||
| Loss to | -979.60 pts | |||||
| BUY | 9/20/2010 | 10,753.62 | (loss) | -1441.11 pts | ||
| 9/20/10 e-mail | BUY 11/3/10 | 11,215.13 | ||||
| BUY 1/28/11 | 11,823.70 | 11/3 Hotline | ||||
| +1133.00 pts | 1/30/11 Goldtent | + 62.92 pts | +671.49 pts | |||
| SELL | 8/2/2011 | 11,886.62 | SELL 8/2/11 | 11,886.62 | SELL 8/2/11 | 11,886.62 |
| BUY | 25% on 8/8/11 | 10,809.85 | 9/12 MktWatch | 9/12 MktWatch | ||
| BUY | 25% on 8/18/11 | 10,990.58 | ||||
| BUY | 50% on 8/29/11 | 11,539.25 | ||||
| SELL | 75% on10/3/11 | 10,655.30 | ||||
| BUY | 25% on 11/1/11 | 11,657.96 | no | signal | BUY 12/23/11 | 12,294.00 |
| BUY | 50% on 1/10/12 | 12,462.47 | 12/23 Hotline | Most Recent Signal | ||
| various e-mails | Average@11,732.53 | |||||
| SELL | 6/1/2012 | 12,118.15 | ||||
| BUY | 6/29/2012 | 12,880.09 | ||||
| 6/29/12 e-mail | ||||||
| SELL | 11/7/2012 | 12,932.73 | ||||
| 11/7/12 e-mail | ||||||
| BUY | 1/2/2013 | 13,412.55 | ||||
| 1/2/13 e-mail | Most Recent Signal | BUY 3/12/13 | 14,450.06 | |||
| 3/1 King World News | Most Recent Signal | |||||
| Jack Schannep | Richard Russell | Richard Moroney | ||||
| TheDowTheory.com | Dow Theory Letters | Dow Theory Forecasts | ||||
| Recent | 11/07-3/13 | +2977.20 pts | - 5902.19 pts | - 3111.67 pts | ||
| Total | All 14 years | +7281.41 pts | - 12633.98pts | - 8058.42 pts |
Each of these Letters are monitored by Hulbert Financial Digest and their Dow Theory interpretation performance is verified and charted below:
|
Schannep |
Russell |
Moroney |
During the entire timeframe, Buy & Hold gained +5962.75 pts or +70.3%. The distressing results for the other Dow Theorists shown above are an embarrassment and detracts from the reputation of the Dow Theory itself. That is one reason I wrote my book, to help reinstate the Dow Theory to the high status it deserves. In “Dow Theory for the 21st Century: Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results” (published by John Wiley & Sons) I have laid out modern rules that improve the record of the Dow Theory considerably. My interpretation uses capitulation, when it occurs, as the time to start buying into the Dow Theory buy signal which has always followed. After that I would add to the position after the bounce, in the pullback phase. Finally, completion of a Dow Theory buy signal is signaled by the first of the Dow Jones Industrials, or Transports, to join the S&P500 reaching highs above the previous bounce. Using this approach throughout the period above would have improved the results shown above.
The above comparison/sweepstakes has been concluded as the results are overwhelmingly in our favor, and subsequent results are available to Subscribers only.