The Dow Theorist’s Sweepstakes

     The Dow Jones Industrial Average is 5,962 points above where it was 14 years ago. The three major Dow Theorists had been under a BUY signal for many years up until the SELL signal on August 4th, 1998.  After agreeing on that signal their interpretations diverged considerably until they came together again briefly on November 21st, 2007, and again on August 2nd, 2011.

     The results of the points captured (including saved from losing) on long and short positions by each Dow Theorist for the last 14 years:

  • Schannep          +7,281 points
  • Buy and Hold    +5,962 points
  • Moroney            -8,058 points
  • Russell              -12,633 points
Jack SchannepRichard RussellRichard Moroney
TheDowTheory.comDow Theory LettersDow Theory Forecasts
Signal:Date:Dow  Jones:Date:Dow Jones:Date:Dow Jones:
See 8/1/98 Letter See 7/29/98 LetterSee 8/3?/98 Letter
Profit to+462.92 pts(loss)-2527.38 pts(loss)-2527.38 pts
9/15/98 Letter5/19/99 Letter4/26/99 Letter
Profit to+2294.20 pts(loss)-696.10 pts(loss)-994.98 pts
9/23/99 Letter9/23/99 Letter10/18/99 Letter
Profit to+731.07 pts(loss)-349.15 pts
BUY11/8/20019587.52no   signal3/1/200210368.86
11/18/01 Letter3/4/02 Letter
Loss to-460.90 pts
SELL6/25/20029126.62no   signalno   signal
6/25/02 Letter
Profit to+403.88 pts
BUY25% on 7/19/028019.26no   signalno   signal
7/19/02 e-mail
75% on 8/21/028957.23
8/21/02 e-mail
Loss to-779.70 ptsno   signal(loss)-3082.59 pts
SELL75% on 9/24/027683.1310/9/20027286.27
9/24/02 e-mail10/10/02 Hotline
Loss to-746.36 pts
BUY75% on 11/5/028678.27no   signalno   signal
11/5/02 Letter
Loss to-558.38 pts
SELL1/24/20038131.01no   signalno   signal
2/11/03 Letter
Loss to-451.67 pts(loss) -2994.38 pts(loss)-1752.71 pts
5/2/03 e-mail5/7/07 posting6/4/03 Hotline
Profit to+4446.24 pts
SELL8/14/200713,028.92no   signalno   signal
8/14/07 Letter
Loss to-1037.09 pts
BUY50% on10/5/0714,066.01no   signalno   signal
10/5/07 e-mail
Profit to0.00 pts (net)(loss)-513.93 pts+3760.06 pts
SELL50% on 11/21/0712,799.0411/21/200712,799.0411/21/200712,799.04
11/22/07 e-mail11/21/07 post11/21/07 Hotline
TOTAL8/98 - 11/07 +4304.21 pts-6731.79 pts-4946.75 pts
Since the competition was getting a little lopsided I have started it over for more recent results:
Loss to-50.32 pts+186.61 pts(loss)-50.32 pts
BUY50% on 4/18/0812,849.364/7/200812,612.434/18/200812,849.36
4/25/08 e-mail4/7/08 post4/18/08 Hotline
Profit to0.00 pts (net)(loss)-2002.77 pts-2483.91 pts
SELL50% on 6/20/0811,842.699/17/2008 10,609.669/29/2008 10,365.45
6/22/08 e-mail9/16 MktWatch9/29/08 Hotline
Profit to+2731.16 pts
BUY25% on 10/7/089,447.11
10/7/08 e-mail
BUY25% on 11/5/089,139.27
11/5/08 e-mail
BUY25% on 11/12/088,282.66
11/26/08 e-mail
BUY25% on 12/8/088,934.18
12/8/08 e-mailProfit to+1839.96 pts
Corrected Average Price:9,111.53BUY       1/7/09 8,769.70no   signal
Loss to(2/19/09 loss)-1526.03 pts
SELL50% on 2/2/097,936.83    1/7/09 Letter
2/2/09 e-mail(loss)      -1303.75 pts
SELL17% on 2/19/097,465.95  SELL   2/19/09           7,465.95
2/19/09 e-mail2/19 MarketWatch  Note: "Letters" does not follow his own advice per his own admission Note:   "Forecasts" is always invested:  
SELL33% on 2/23/097,114.7860-70% during Sell signals,       
2/23/09 e-mail85-90% during Buys
Actual Average Price:7,585.50
Loss to-190.36 pts(loss)   -1603.34 pts        
BUY3/23/20097,775.86BUY        7/23/099,069.29
7/27 Mkt Watch
Note:  "Schannep" follows his own advice with a real money portfolio shown each monthProfit to+1248.87 ptsnosignal
SELL  11/20/0910,318.16
11/27 MktWatch
(loss)- 415.51pts(loss)-368.19 pts
BUY    3/17/1010,733.67BUY   3/17/1010,733.67
3/18 MktWatch
(loss)- 665.66 pts
SELL  5/20/1010,068.01
Profit to+1998.16 pts(loss)-959.65 pts
6/30/10 Letter(loss)-457.42 pts6/30 Hotline
Loss to-979.60 pts
BUY9/20/201010,753.62(loss)-1441.11 pts
9/20/10 e-mailBUY    11/3/1011,215.13
BUY    1/28/1111,823.7011/3 Hotline
+1133.00 pts1/30/11 Goldtent         + 62.92 pts+671.49 pts
SELL8/2/201111,886.62    SELL     8/2/1111,886.62SELL     8/2/1111,886.62
BUY25% on 8/8/1110,809.859/12 MktWatch9/12 MktWatch
BUY25% on 8/18/1110,990.58
BUY50% on 8/29/1111,539.25
SELL75% on10/3/1110,655.30
BUY25% on 11/1/1111,657.96no signalBUY    12/23/1112,294.00
BUY50% on 1/10/1212,462.4712/23 HotlineMost Recent Signal
various e-mailsAverage@11,732.53
6/29/12 e-mail
11/7/12 e-mail
1/2/13 e-mailMost Recent SignalBUY       3/12/1314,450.06
3/1 King World NewsMost Recent Signal
Jack SchannepRichard RussellRichard Moroney
TheDowTheory.comDow Theory LettersDow Theory Forecasts
Recent11/07-3/13+2977.20 pts- 5902.19 pts- 3111.67 pts
TotalAll 14 years+7281.41 pts- 12633.98pts- 8058.42 pts

Each of these Letters are monitored by Hulbert Financial Digest and their Dow Theory interpretation performance is verified and charted below:               




     During the entire timeframe, Buy & Hold gained +5962.75 pts or +70.3%.  The distressing results for the other Dow Theorists shown above are an embarrassment and detracts from the reputation of the Dow Theory itself.  That is one reason I wrote my book, to help reinstate the Dow Theory to the high status it deserves.  In “Dow Theory for the 21st Century: Technical Indicators for Improving Your Investment Results” (published by John Wiley & Sons) I have laid out modern rules that improve the record of the Dow Theory considerably. My interpretation uses capitulation, when it occurs, as the time to start buying into the Dow Theory buy signal which has always followed. After that I would add to the position after the bounce, in the pullback phase. Finally, completion of a Dow Theory buy signal is signaled by the first of the Dow Jones Industrials, or Transports, to join the S&P500 reaching highs above the previous bounce. Using this approach throughout the period above would have improved the results shown above.

The above comparison/sweepstakes has been concluded as the results are overwhelmingly in our favor, and subsequent results are available to Subscribers only.

Back To Top