So how does it work out in the market? The following shows the results for the S&P500 3 months, 6 months, 9 months and a year after BUY Signals were completed (many were started earlier at lower levels – See “Explanation and Results” for details) with the average gains being +5.3%, +13.9%, +17.2% and +21.9% respectively. The average gain to the next SELL Signal has been 26.8%.
| (Data since 1957) | 3 Months: | 6 Months: | 9 Months: | 1 year: | To SELL Signal: | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Date | Level | Level | Gain | Level | Gain | Level | Gain | Level | Gain | Sell Date | Level | Gain |
| 1/25/1954 | 25.93 | 27.76 | 7.1% | 30.31 | 16.9% | 31.96 | 23.3% | 35.51 | 36.9% | 8/20/1956 | 48.25 | 85.1% |
| 5/5/1958 | 43.79 | 47.75 | 9.0% | 52.03 | 18.8% | 54.81 | 25.2% | 57.75 | 31.9% | 11/12/1959 | 57.17 | 30.6% |
| 1/3/1961 | 57.57 | 65.60 | 13.9% | 65.21 | 13.3% | 67.77 | 17.7% | 71.13 | 23.6% | 5/10/1962 | 63.57 | 10.4% |
| 11/14/1962(a) | 56.42 | 66.35 | 17.6% | 70.21 | 24.4% | 71.07 | 26.0% | 72.95 | 29.3% | 5/2/1966 | 90.9 | 61.1% |
| 12/27/1966 | 81.00 | 90.87 | 12.2% | 91.30 | 12.7% | 96.79 | 19.5% | 95.91 | 18.4% | 1/22/1968 | 94.03 | 16.1% |
| 4/11/1968 | 96.53 | 102.39 | 6.1% | 108.18 | 12.1% | 100.93 | 4.6% | 98.65 | 2.2%(1) | 3/7/1969 | 98.65 | 2.2% |
| 8/24/1970(b) | 75.62 | 84.78 | 12.1% | 96.73 | 27.9% | 100.13 | 32.4% | 100.40 | 32.8% | 2/23/1973 | 113.16 | 49.6% |
| 10/22/1973 | 109.16 | 98.66 | -9.6%(2) | 11/20/1973 | 98.66 | -9.6% | ||||||
| 11/4/1974(c) | 70.73 | 77.61 | 9.7% | 89.22 | 26.1% | 87.15 | 23.2% | 88.51 | 25.1% | 10/31/1977 | 92.34 | 30.6% |
| 4/17/1978 | 94.45 | 97.78 | 3.5% | 101.26 | 7.2% | 96.03 | 1.7%(3) | 10/26/1978 | 96.03 | 1.7% | ||
| 6/11/1980 | 116.02 | 125.66 | 8.3% | 127.36 | 9.8% | 129.95 | 12.0% | 133.75 | 15.3% | 8/31/1981 | 122.79 | 5.8% |
| 8/23/1982 | 116.11 | 132.93 | 14.5% | 146.79 | 26.4% | 163.43 | 40.8% | 162.77 | 40.2% | 2/22/1984 | 154.31 | 32.9% |
| 8/21/1984 | 167.83 | 164.52 | -2.0% | 180.19 | 7.4% | 189.64 | 13.0% | 189.16 | 12.7% | 10/16/1987 | 282.7 | 68.4% |
| *2/29/1988(d) | 267.82 | 253.42 | -5.4% | 262.33 | -2.0% | 270.91 | 1.2% | 288.86 | 7.9% | *8/23/1990 | 307.06 | 14.7% |
| *1/25/1991(e) | 321.57 | 379.25 | 17.9% | 380.96 | 18.5% | 384.20 | 19.5% | 414.99 | 29.1% | 6/20/1994 | 455.48 | 41.6% |
| 2/22/1995 | 485.07 | 523.65 | 8.0% | 559.52 | 15.3% | 598.40 | 23.4% | 658.86 | 35.8% | 8/27/1998 | 1042.6 | 114.9% |
| 11/5/1998(f) | 1045.57 | 1239.40 | 18.5% | 1347.30 | 28.9% | 1313.71 | 25.6% | 1324.02 | 26.6%(4) | 8/30/1999 | 1324.02 | 26.6% |
| 12/3/1999 | 1433.30 | 1409.20 | -1.7% | 1477.30 | 3.1% | 1520.77 | 6.1% | 1315.23 | -8.2% | *3/16/01 | 1150.53 | -19.7% |
| 11/19/01(g) | 1151.06 | 1083.34 | -5.9% | 1106.39 | -3.9% | 953.99 | -17.1%(5) | 7/3/2002 | 953.99 | -17.1% | ||
| 11/5/2002(g) | 858.47 | 843.59 | -1.7% | 926.55 | 7.9% | 965.46 | 12.5% | 1051.81 | 22.5%(6) | 8/5/2004** | 1080.7 | 25.9% |
| 11/22/2004 | 1177.34 | 1201.60 | 2.1% | 1189.30 | 1.0% | 1219.71 | 3.6% | 1254.85 | 6.6% | 7/12/2006 | 1258.6 | 6.9% |
| 10/12/2006 | 1362.83 | 1430.73 | 5.0% | 1447.80 | 6.2% | 1547.80 | 13.6% | 1561.80 | 14.6% | 1/15/2008 | 1380.95 | 1.3% |
| * 1/2/2009 | 931.80 | 778.94 | -16.4%(7) | *2/19/2009 | 778.94 | -16.4% | ||||||
| * 3/26/2009 | 832.86 | 918.90 | 10.3% | 1044.38 | 25.4% | 1126.48 | 35.3% | 1166.59 | 40.0% | *8/10/2011 | 1120.76 | 34.6% |
| 10/27/2011(h) | 1202.03 | 1316.33 | 9.5% | 1403.36 | 16.7% | 1385.97 | 15.3% | 1411.94 | 17.5% | 4/23/2018 | 2670.29 | 102.9% |
| * 9/20/2018 | 2930.75 | 2736.27 | -6.6% | 11/16/2018 | 25413.22 | -4.7% | ||||||
| 2/19/2019(i) | 2565.43 | 2859.53 | 11.5% | 2923.65 | 14.0% | 3120.18 | 21.6% | |||||
| 4/6/2020 | 2,263.68 | 2,663.68 | 19.37% | 3,360.97 | 26.18% | 3,748.14 | 40.71% | 4,073.94 | 52.95% | 4/11/2022 | 4,412.53 | 65.65% |
| 8/12/2022 | 4,280.15 | 3585.62 | -16.22% (8) | |||||||||
| Average: | 5.2% | 14.3% | 17.2% | 21.9% | 28.22% | |||||||
Italicized Bold is the Average for all that completed or were closed out by Sell signals in each period.
(1) Ends at Schannep Timing Indicator SELL Signal on 3/7/69 @ 98.65 was 5 wks short of the full year.
(2) Ends at S.T.I. SELL on 11/20/73 @ 98.66 was 4 weeks after the BUY thanks to Arab Oil Embargo.
(3) Ends at S.T.I. SELL on 10/26/78 @ 96.03 was 10 days after completing 6 months.
(4) Ends at S.T.I. SELL on 8/30/99 @1324.02 was 3 weeks after completing 9 months.
(5) Ends at S.T.I. SELL on 7/3/02 @ 953.99 was 5 weeks after completing 6 months.
(6) One-half was sold at the S.T.I. SELL on 8/5/04 @ 1080.70 and reinvested at the 11/21/04 Re-BUY, then all were sold at the S.T.I. SELL on 7/12/06 @ 1258.60 for a combined gain of 37.2% gain over an average holding period of 42.5 months.
(7) Ends at definition of Bear met at 778.94% on 2/19/09.
(8) Ends at S.T.I. SELL on 9/30/22 @ 28725.51. It was 7 weeks after the 8/12/22 BUY
(a) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 6/22/62 @52.68 and the final 1/2 at the S.T.I. BUY on 11/14/62 @ 60.16 for the resultant BUY level of 56.42.
(b) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 5/25/70 @ 70.25 and the final 1/2 at the S.T.I. BUY on 8/24/70 @ 80.99 for the resultant BUY level of 75.62.
(c) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 8/23/74 @ 71.55, an add’l 1/6 at the 2nd Capitulation on 9/30/74 @ 63.54 & the final 1/3 at the S.T.I. BUY on 11/4/74 @ 73.08 for resultn’t BUY level of 70.73.
(d) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 10/19/87 @ 224.84 an add’l 1/6 at the 2nd Capitulation 12/3/87 @ 225.21, the final 1/3 at the ‘official’ Bull on 2/29/88 @ 267.82 for result BUY level of 239.22.
(e) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 8/23/90 @ 307.06 and the final 1/2 at the S.T.I. BUY on 1/25/91 @ 336.07 for the resultant BUY level of 321.57.
(f) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 8/31/98 @ 957.28 and the final 1/2 at the S.T.I. BUY on 11/5/98 @ 1133.85 for the resultant BUY level of 1045.57.
(g) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 7/19/02 @ 847.75, an add’l 1/6 at the 2nd Capitulation 776.76 and the final 1/3 at the S.T.I. BUY on 11/5/02 @ 915.39 for the resultant BUY level of 858.47.
(h) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 8/8/11 @ 1119.46 and the final 1/2 at the S.T.I Buy on 10/27/11 @ 1284.59 for the resultant BUY level of 1202.03.
(i) This BUY from 1/2 bought at Capitulation on 12/24/18 @ 2351.10 and the final 1/2 at the S.T.I Buy on 2/19/19 @ 2779.76 for the resultant BUY level of 2565.43.
A Buy on 4/6/01 (not shown) was a result of reinstating an erroneous Sell caused by the Fed’l Reserve correcting their reported figures and is therefore not included with the other bona-fide BUY Signals.
*These signals were activated by the definition of Bull (or Bear) being met