Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Special Issue: Does it make sense to short with the Dow Theory?

posted on: July 8, 2016

Primary and Secondary Trends unchanged This post is my answer to Algyros, a faithful follower of this blog. Basically, he asked about shorting with the Dow Theory. Does it make sense? My first answer read as follows (link to it here): I’d summarize my opinion concerning shorting as follows: • Primary bear markets last less […]

Dow Theory Special issue: How good is Schannep’s Dow Theory at picking bottoms and exiting tops?

posted on: July 1, 2016

Trends unchanged on stocks and precious metals. On many occasions, and based on my observations of Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals, I have written that buy signals tend to be signaled at roughly 5-7% from the lows (bottom) and sell signals at around 5-7% from the highs (top). I must confess […]

Dow Theory Update for June 27: Primary bear market unambiguously signaled for US stocks on Friday 24

posted on: June 27, 2016

Trends for precious metals and miners unchanged This post has been written and matured during the weekend. It is being posted some 25 minutes after the open of Monday 27. US STOCKS Well, the markets have cast their ballot too. Today, Friday, June 24th, the S&P 500 has closed 3 points below its May 19th […]

Dow Theory Update for May 24: Exceptionally, the Classical Dow Theory might be earlier than Schannep’s Dow Theory

posted on: May 24, 2016

Gold and Silver very close to secondary (bearish) reaction US STOCKS The primary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction), as explained here. Since I alerted on May 14th about the existence of the secondary reaction, stocks have extended their […]

Dow Theory Update for May 9: McKinsey Global Institute’s report and what to expect of the Dow Theory over the next 20 years

posted on: May 9, 2016

US stocks flirting with secondary reaction Dow Theory Update for May 9: McKinsey Global Institute’s report and what to expect of the Dow Theory over the next 20 years. US stocks flirting with secondary reaction US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. […]

Dow Theory Update for April 14: More about the primary bull market signal for stocks

posted on: April 14, 2016

Trends for gold and silver and their stocks unchanged This is going to be a long post. Please bear with me, and take your time to absorb it. Since writing this post has taken a good deal of focus and energy, I’d likely take a pause in the coming days (unless trends change). Yesterday, a […]

Dow Theory Update for March 21: More on the primary bull market signal for SLV and GLD

posted on: March 21, 2016

Not setup for primary bull market in stocks yet US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as explained here: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-update-for-december-14.html Here is an additional post concerning the likely decline to follow primary bear markets signals: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/12/dow-theory-special-issue-additional.html The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against primary bearish trend) as explained here. No setup for a primary […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)

posted on: March 10, 2016

Will future secular bear markets allow the Dow Theory to outperform buy and hold? Will future secular bear markets be so obliging to the Dow Theory as past ones? The preceding two posts of this saga (here and here) dealt with the Dow Theory performance under secular bear markets. I concluded that I thought that […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Why drawdowns matter

posted on: March 1, 2016

And why most investors should avoid them Some weeks ago, one reader of this Dow Theory blog alleged that the focus on “timing” the market, and hence avoiding drawdowns was not a good idea, since in the long run US stocks (or at least US stock indices) end up being winners. Furthermore, no dividends are […]

Dow Theory Update for February 23: Secondary (bullish) reaction against primary bear market signaled on February 22

posted on: February 23, 2016

Trends for precious metals unchanged US STOCKS The Transports has been rallying for 23 trading days since its Jan 20 closing lows. The INDU and SP500 have been rallying for 7 trading days and 11 calendar days. Hence, 3 indices have rallied more than 10 calendar days (it suffices just two). And the average […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (III)

posted on: February 8, 2016

Additional remarks concerning performance under secular bear markets As a consequence of my second post concerning the Dow Theory stress-test, Alpha Dow posted this comment: Hi there. First of all — I love the site. I’m an 18yr disciple of Dow Theory and a subscriber to Schannep and a practitioner myself. There is a dearth […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (II)

posted on: February 2, 2016

Performance under secular bear markets On December 7th, 2015 I started what is going to be a new “saga”. Its aim is to put the Dow Theory under a “stress-test”. We will try to think out of the box and imagine adverse scenarios which hitherto have not occurred yet. How would the Dow Theory perform […]