Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory Special Issue: After the dust hast settled: Commentary to the Dow Theory primary bear market signal

posted on: October 16, 2014

Trends in gold and silver have not changed Let’s make a brief recap. Yesterday I announced that stocks are under a primary bear market. You can find the details here. The primary bull market started on June 24th, 2013 (on that they were made the final primary bear market lows). The primary bull market was […]

Dow Theory Update for June 17: When Dow Theorist lose it (II). Some bullish reasons, which may be wrong (as with all fundamentals) to give pause to the bears.

posted on: June 17, 2014

Is Zero Hedge giving the “fundamental” answer? Yesterday I took to task those Dow Theorists, who, betraying their trade (pun intended), ignore the technical messages of the market. I wrote that many fundamentalists were scratching their head with unbelief because they consider the stock market irrational. According to them, stocks are expensive, the economy […]

Dow Theory Update for June 16: When Dow Theorists lose it. Russell or how to put aside the Dow Theory and miss a bull market.

posted on: June 16, 2014

Trends remain unchanged Recently, Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, considered by some as the dean of the Dow Theorists has written: “A primary bear market in the stock market and the US economy began in 2007. The bear market in the US economy is continuing to this day. But the Federal Reserve […]

Coiled markets and the Dow Theory: A closer look to TLT and IEF ETFs

posted on: April 28, 2014

In my last post, I wrote about consolidations I see occurring in several markets. Well, let’s take a look at interest rates (TLT and IEF, the 20+ years and 7-10 years bonds ETFs, respectively). It will be a very cursory analysis, as my time remains in short supply. Here you have the vital chart which […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory Review for 2013.

posted on: January 3, 2014

Putting 2013 in perspective Let’s briefly recap how our Dow Theory analysis fared in 2013. Did we do a good job at determining the primary trend of the markets? This post should be an eye-opener for many skeptics. US Stocks The year began on January 2 with a primary bull market signal, as you can […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: November 22, 2013

Part V. Performance comparison under secular bear markets This post was overdue. But time constraints prevented me from writing it before. This is the last post of the saga “Face-off: Schannep versus classical Dow Theory”. As you well know, until now, four posts have analyzed the Schannep’s Dow Theory and Rhea’s (classical) Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs.

posted on: November 21, 2013

As I wrote yesterday, the Dow Theory has just signaled a primary bear market for SIL and GDX (the silver and gold miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The red lines are the secondary reaction lows that once they got violated by both ETFs flashed a primary bear market signal. […]

Dow Theory Special issue: Visualising drawdowns

posted on: September 21, 2013

Buy and hold versus Schannep’s Dow Theory An image is worth than thousand words. I have profusely written on this blog about the excellent job Schannep’s Dow Theory does at containing losses. Well, today I won’t give stats. Just three charts (created by courtesy of TradeStation ®) which are self-revealing. The first chart is the […]

Dow Theory special issue: More on the Chinese primary bull market signal

posted on: September 14, 2013

In this post, I explained that a primary bull market had been signaled in Chinese stocks. Let’s look a bit deeper into it. Let’s start by showing an updated chart: Anatomy of a primary bull market signal I will focus on the FXI as it represents 25 big companies. It is the equivalent of focusing […]

Dow Theory Update for September 12: Primary bull market for Chinese stocks signaled

posted on: September 12, 2013

Precious metals deflating In a past post, I dealt with Chinese stocks and the then ongoing primary bear market. My blog stats show me that I get a noticeable number of visitors from China. Thus, I think I should devote some more time to following the Chinese stock market. As I wrote in this post, […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: September 6, 2013

Part IV. Performance comparison under secular bull markets. Until now this series “Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory has focused on comparing Schannep’s and “Rhea/classical” Dow Theory irrespective of the secular condition of the market. In part I we set out the premises of our study (so that we conduct an apple to apples […]

Face off: Schannep versus “classical” Dow Theory

posted on: August 17, 2013

Part III Overall performance figures (2) Let’s continue with our analysis of the Schannep’s version of the Dow Theory versus the “Rhea/classical” one. The first post of this saga, which you can find here, set out the premises of our study, as it is important to do a real “apple to apples” comparison. The second […]