Category: Dow Theory

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the classical/Rhea Dow Theory record. Profit factor and more

posted on: June 1, 2013

Part 2: Final statistics. Eight days ago, I posted “Dissecting the classical/Rhea Dow Theory record.” In that post, I examined vital statistics concerning the positions taken in pursuance of the Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals. Today, we will expand further our analysis by focusing on: · Win to lose ratio. · What […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dissecting the classical/Rhea Dow Theory record

posted on: May 24, 2013

Part I In previous posts of this Dow Theory blog, we occupied themselves with the evaluation of the Dow Theory performance, as explained here. Furthermore, we broke down such data into secular and bull markets as presented here and here. One thread in common was that all these studies focused on a comparison of the […]

Dow Theory special issue: Introducing Schannep’s stoploss for the stock market

posted on: May 17, 2013

In my previous post, I made some observations concerning the unrealized gains made by those following the primary bull market signal in the stock market. I finished my observations by mentioning two tools to help the investor avoid devastating losses (or to lock in profits) if the trend suddenly reverses. One of this “tools” is […]

Dow Theory Special issue: Differences between trading and investment

posted on: May 3, 2013

Is trading so different from investment? For me, everything is the same. They are different ends that lead (or should lead) to the same goal. The goal is to protect your capital (avoid drawdons and paper losses as much as possible) and, if possible, make it grow. If you achieve this goal by day trading: […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: A new Answer to the New Low Observer (NLO)

posted on: March 2, 2013

The New LowObserver (NLO) is an avid student of the markets. Its website contains a wealth of information, which spans many subjects (Dow Theory, specific stocks, book list, market observations, etc.) NLO posted a comment in my Seeking Alpha blog in the past which resulted in my post “An Answer to the New Low Observer […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory’s performance during the secular 1982-1999 bull market

posted on: February 22, 2013

How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold? Part III In my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?”, which you can find here, I started a series of articles dedicated to examining the classical/Rhea Dow Theory “flavor” under all market environments and across time. At the risk of […]

Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory’s performance during the secular 1966-1981 bear market

posted on: February 9, 2013

How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold? Part II In my post “How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?”, which you can find here, I started a series of articles dedicated to examining the classical/Rhea Dow Theory “flavor” under all market environments and across time. In that post, we […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the primary bear market signal for gold and silver miners ETFs

posted on: January 26, 2013

Should we heed the Dow Theory when applied to ETFs? As you could read in this post, the Dow Theory has recently signaled a primary bear market for GDX and SIL (the gold and silver miners ETFs). Here you have a chart depicting recent price action. The pink lines are the secondary reaction lows that […]

Dow Theory special issue: How often does the Dow Theory outperform buy and hold?

posted on: January 18, 2013

Evaluating performance on a year-end basis. It is no secret that I am deeply influenced by Schannep’s Dow Theory flavor. To learn more about Schannep’s flavor, I suggest you go here, or if you plan to buy his excellent book here. For reasons that go beyond my comprehension (maybe because he’s the best-performing Dow Theorist) […]

How long do bull and bear markets last?

posted on: January 17, 2013

What is the expected performance of bull markets? Here is an interesting article posted on Zero Hedge entitled “Time dependency of bull markets”. While the definition of bull or bear market does not necessarily fit with the primary and bear markets as defined by the Dow Theory, it gives interesting insights as to what expect […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: An Answer to the New Low Observer (NLO)

posted on: January 12, 2013

This post is the consequence of a commentary posted by the New Low Observer (NLO) on an Instablog in Seeking Alpha. You can find the post and NLO’s comments here: Since the NLO’s commentary was very extensive, I decided that my reply would be a new post. I hold the people at the NLO in […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the current primary bull market signal

posted on: January 5, 2013

If you are a follower of this Dow Theory blog, you know that on January 2, a primary bull market in stocks was signaled. You can find the details here. Well, today, I’d like to expound the intricacies of the current bull market signal. First of all, on January 2, the new bull market was […]