Dow Theory Update for October 8: Primary bull market signaled for US Stocks on Oct. 7
posted on: October 8, 2015
At least theoretically, as it has been a very dubious signal. The S&P 500 closing high of September 16th, 2015 was 1995.31. Yesterday, October 7th, the S&P 500 closed above such a closing high by closing at 1995.83. Thus, the S&P 500 managed by a hair to exceed the closing highs of the secondary reaction, […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (II)
posted on: September 14, 2015
How to exit when the Dow Theory refuses to setup “orderly” primary bear market signals. Recently, I wrote about the primary bear market signal for Chinese stocks. As you well know this primary bear market signal came much too late, if we are to judge from the percentage decline from the top to the exit […]
Dow Theory special issue: Why the Dow Theory uses daily bars, not weekly and for good reason
posted on: September 7, 2015
Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold and silver and their ETFs miners unchanged. Travis, one reader of this blog, recently posted a comment whereby he asked why I use daily bars instead of weekly bars to determine what allegedly is the long-term trend. What follows is my answer, which deserves a post of its […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Primary bear market for Chinese stocks signaled last Friday 21st
posted on: August 24, 2015
And some thoughts concerning US Stocks… Market relevant events continue to pile up, while time remains in short supply. Last Friday, FXI broke below the lows of the last secondary reaction (which were made on October, 10th, 2014), and, accordingly confirmed HAO, which had already done so on July 7th, 2015. Confirmed lower lows, means […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Was it a primary bear market signal under the classical Dow Theory?
posted on: August 21, 2015
Bank of America seems to think so As reported by Zero Hedge, BofA seems to have detected a primary bear market signal by applying the Rhea/classical Dow Theory, as you can read here. However, I have my qualms as to the correctness of such a signal under the classical Dow Theory. On the other hand, […]
Dow Theory Update for July 29: Lessons (re)learned from the precious metals universe and Chinese stocks
posted on: July 29, 2015
Trends remain unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Maximum Drawdown and average returns for the Dow Theory versus buy and hold
posted on: June 29, 2015
Trends remain unchanged. This post is the detailed answer to one question posed by a follower of this Dow Theory blog. Hope it will serve Algyros and other readers to further a deeper understanding of the Dow Theory. Here is question: “I was wondering if you had CAGR and Max DD backtested information for your […]
Dow Theory Update for June 24: Gary Antonacci on stops. Let’ s heed the words of a sage
posted on: June 24, 2015
Trends remain unchanged There are three names that shine when it comes to (a) investment practical acumen; (b) avoid BS. These names are (in alphabetical order): 1) Antonacci. http://www.dualmomentum.net/ 2) Moening http://stateofthemarkets.com/ 3) Schannep https://thedowtheory.com/ I have praised Antonacci’s work in the past (here and here). He has recently penned a new article entitled “Momentum […]
Dow Theory Update for June 10: Nuances concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions.
posted on: June 11, 2015
Trends remain unchanged. We know that the appraisal of secondary reactions is not an easy feat. Accordingly, Rhea wrote that “probably no two students would agree on any rule for selecting and tabulating important secondary reactions” (Rhea’s “The Dow Theory”, Fraser Edition, page 61). Thus, recent price action, and my particular divergence from Schannep’s Dow […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: On the deceptiveness of trying to gauge value versus cold hard technical action
posted on: June 6, 2015
Now it could be that stocks are not so overvalued after all. This article on Ritholz blog “The Big Picture” seems to suggest that if we adjust for current inflation valuations are not expensive at all. So, all the chatter of overvaluation notwithstanding, it could be that there is not so much secular headwind for […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: US bonds flashing primary bear market signal
posted on: June 3, 2015
We have to wait to today’s close to be sure. Some days ago, I alerted that US debt was flirting with a primary bear market signal. Furthermore, I made clear that a new primary bull market had been signaled for the Euro and CHF. I am writing before the close, so my conclusions are not […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Dual Momentum versus Dow Theory
posted on: May 30, 2015
Trends remain unchanged I have compared in the past the Dow Theory versus moving averages. Let’s compare now the Dow Theory and Dual Momentum. This post is the edited correspondence with one follower of this Dow Theory blog. He, like I, has read the book “Dual Momentum Investing“, by Gary Antonacci. By the way, I […]
