Dow Theory Update for June 10: Nuances concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions.
posted on: June 11, 2015
Trends remain unchanged. We know that the appraisal of secondary reactions is not an easy feat. Accordingly, Rhea wrote that “probably no two students would agree on any rule for selecting and tabulating important secondary reactions” (Rhea’s “The Dow Theory”, Fraser Edition, page 61). Thus, recent price action, and my particular divergence from Schannep’s Dow […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: On the deceptiveness of trying to gauge value versus cold hard technical action
posted on: June 6, 2015
Now it could be that stocks are not so overvalued after all. This article on Ritholz blog “The Big Picture” seems to suggest that if we adjust for current inflation valuations are not expensive at all. So, all the chatter of overvaluation notwithstanding, it could be that there is not so much secular headwind for […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: US bonds flashing primary bear market signal
posted on: June 3, 2015
We have to wait to today’s close to be sure. Some days ago, I alerted that US debt was flirting with a primary bear market signal. Furthermore, I made clear that a new primary bull market had been signaled for the Euro and CHF. I am writing before the close, so my conclusions are not […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Dual Momentum versus Dow Theory
posted on: May 30, 2015
Trends remain unchanged I have compared in the past the Dow Theory versus moving averages. Let’s compare now the Dow Theory and Dual Momentum. This post is the edited correspondence with one follower of this Dow Theory blog. He, like I, has read the book “Dual Momentum Investing“, by Gary Antonacci. By the way, I […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: A closer look at the Chinese primary bull market in stocks
posted on: May 20, 2015
Some days ago, I made a cursory reference to an ongoing primary bull market in Chinese stocks. One reader of this Dow Theory blog kindly asked me to further analyze the bull market in Chinese stocks. As I explained here, the Dow Theory can also be applied to foreign stocks indices and even assets other […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: “Lines”. Classical Dow Theory and Schannep
posted on: May 11, 2015
Why Schannep’s Dow Theory needs no lines. Trends for US Stocks, gold, silver and their respective miners EFTs remain unchanged. The primary trend for Stocks remains bullish, and the precious metals universe remains bullish. Gold, silver and their ETFs remain caught in an endless secondary reaction. What I wrote some weeks ago remains a faithful […]
Dow Theory Update for May 7: More about the unreliability of trying to gauge the secular trend
posted on: May 7, 2015
Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold, silver and their miners unchanged. The lull continues. So, once again, I’ll focus on issues pertaining to investing with a Dow Theory focus. Today I will delve into secular trends, valuations and what to do about them. This blogger truly yours has been skeptical as to trying to […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: “Internal” confirmation embedded in the Dow Theory: Time should confirm extent and viceversa. Therein lies its force.
posted on: April 29, 2015
Moving averages, Breakout strategies, etc. are no match for the Dow Theory No new from the markets. Primary and secondary trends unchanged. And hence, I will further cogitate about the Dow Theory. Such moments of market lull are good to rethink one’s premises. The more I know the entrails of the Dow Theory, the more […]
Dow Theory Update for April 21: Dow Theory, Trend following, noise and non parametric systems
posted on: April 21, 2015
Nothing has changed. Primary and Secondary trends remain the same. Trends have not changed. So what I wrote in my last post remains valid. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-10-trends.html So let’s take advantage of the lack of news, to ponder a bit about trends, their nature and how to make money out of them. Now we have time […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Dow Theory versus Moving Averages
posted on: February 20, 2015
Which is a better timing system? The post you are going to read was overdue, as it is vital for any trend follower. I could finally find some time to put some ideas together. It is well known that moving averages (hereinafter, “MA”) are used by investors to help “timing” the markets. So, as with […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting 2014 in perspective II
posted on: February 11, 2015
Gold, Silver and their miners ETFs. The first part of this study concerning US Stocks can be found here. Gold and Silver 2014 began with an ongoing primary bear market in gold and silver which had been signaled by this blogger truly yours on December 20th, 2012 (as explained here). The primary bear market signal […]
Dow Theory Special Issue for February 4: It is not a primary bear market…
posted on: February 4, 2015
…In spite of what other Dow Theorists may say Last Friday, January 30, the Transports violated their secondary reaction lows, and, hence confirmed the Industrials which had done so January 28. As reported by Mark Hulbert of “marketwatch.com”, the Dow Theory is now “flashing” a “sell” signal. In his opinion (apparently backed by other Dow […]
