Category: Investment musings

Two new interviews with Alessio Rastani on Youtube Continue Reading

Two new interviews with Alessio Rastani on Youtube

posted on: July 7, 2025

Once again, I was invited by Alessio Rastani to join him in two new videos. Since I was in my 80% work, 20% vacation mission across Europe, I was not fully equipped, so we had to do an “unplugged” performance. No fancy mic, nor headphones or hi-end speakers on my end. Just my reliable laptop, […]

The Real Problem with Buy & Hold—and What to Do About It Continue Reading

The Real Problem with Buy & Hold—and What to Do About It

posted on: June 14, 2025

Three Smarter Ways to Cut Drawdowns Without Killing Performance The core issue with buy-and-hold investing is simple: drawdowns. Big ones. They may be inevitable, but that doesn’t make them any less damaging—both financially and psychologically. To address this, many investors turn to buffered ETFs, hedging with puts, or going short. But there’s a catch: these […]

Gold and Silver in Sync: The Bull Marches On Continue Reading

Gold and Silver in Sync: The Bull Marches On

posted on: June 9, 2025

Silver Seals the Deal: Bull Market Reconfirmed Overview: On 6/5/25, silver broke above its 10/22/24 highs. It confirmed gold’s previous breakup on 1/30/25. Accordingly, the primary bull market has been confirmed. By the way, the recent price action of SLV and GLD offers a powerful reminder of how the principle of confirmation can protect you […]

Breadth Thrust on April 24th 2025 increases the odds that the bottom is behind us Continue Reading

Breadth Thrust on April 24th 2025 increases the odds that the bottom is behind us

posted on: April 24, 2025

I reproduce a post on LinkedIn with some additions that I think is relevant to our readers. On April 24, 2025, a Zweig Breadth Thrust signal emerged, a rare and historically bullish indicator for the stock market. Skeptical of social media claims, I verified the signal using TradeStation, my trusted trading software, which confirmed the […]

Key Support Levels for Bitcoin—and the Ethereum Connection Continue Reading

Key Support Levels for Bitcoin—and the Ethereum Connection

posted on: April 14, 2025

I had the pleasure of joining Maurizio Pedrazzoli for a great interview on his YouTube channel.We analyzed Bitcoin’s trend using both daily and weekly charts and uncovered key support levels that must hold.We also discussed why, whether you like it or not, Ethereum is essential to truly understanding Bitcoin’s trend, and avoid false signals. A […]

Markets on the Edge: A Deep Dive with Andrew  Horowitz & Manuel Blay Continue Reading

Markets on the Edge: A Deep Dive with Andrew Horowitz & Manuel Blay

posted on: April 14, 2025

In our latest conversation, Andrew and I unpacked the recent market rollercoaster—driven by self-inflicted uncertainty and erratic swings. I shared insights drawn from Dow Theory, the recent S&P 500 decline, and what truly defines a valid rally. We also delved into the concept of capitulation, assessed the impact of today’s economic backdrop, and discussed how […]

Free Webinar: Applying The Dow Theory To Assess Market Trends Continue Reading

Free Webinar: Applying The Dow Theory To Assess Market Trends

posted on: March 25, 2025

Secure your place NOW I’m honored to be joining renowned trader and analyst Dean Christians, CMT Christians of SentimenTrader.com for a special public webinar on March 26th, 2025, from 11:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. ET. In today’s turbulent market environment, this event promises to be a must-attend. It will offer a deep dive into sentiment, […]

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posted on: March 13, 2025

Rory Guillen of Gillenmarkets.com, a long-time subscriber to our service, has just published a highly insightful article on the most recent Dow Theory for the 21st Century (DT21C) signal. You can read it HERE. The piece offers a clear and practical explanation of how to apply the DT21C, along with its strong track record of […]

Crypto at a Crossroads: Bitcoin’s Bear Trend, MicroStrategy’s Risk, and What Comes Next Continue Reading

Crypto at a Crossroads: Bitcoin’s Bear Trend, MicroStrategy’s Risk, and What Comes Next

posted on: March 10, 2025

Is the bearish trend for Bitcoin nearing its end? Does MicroStrategy’s aggressive Bitcoin accumulation pose a hidden risk? And what is the broader crypto space really trying to tell us right now? Had an awesome time joining Alessio Rastani once again—this time diving deep into the world of Bitcoin, crypto trends, and what might be […]

Stock Market Outlook: Key Insights from My Chat with Alessio Rastani Continue Reading

Stock Market Outlook: Key Insights from My Chat with Alessio Rastani

posted on: March 8, 2025

Had a great time joining Alessio Rastani on his YouTube channel! We covered some crucial topics, including the most immediate price action for the stock market and what to watch for in the second half of the year. I also shared key insights on what margin debt is signaling right now—a factor that could have […]

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey: How to use it for stock market timing Continue Reading

The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey: How to use it for stock market timing

posted on: February 27, 2025

A contrarian indicator The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) is an organization dedicated to private investors that conducts weekly sentiment surveys to gauge market expectations. Participants respond to the question: “I feel that the direction of the stock market over the next six months will be:” with one of three choices—Up (Bullish), No Change […]

Beating the S&P 500: Why Your Stock Picks Might Be Falling Short Continue Reading

Beating the S&P 500: Why Your Stock Picks Might Be Falling Short

posted on: December 23, 2024

The 40-Day Sweet Spot: Rethinking Your Stock Holding Period Most S&P500 constituents fail to outperform the Index in the long run. The evidence provided by Kurtis Hemmerling in his LinkedIn post is compelling and highlights this challenge for individual stock pickers. So, if you buy stocks for the long haul, the odds are greatly stacked […]

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