Dow Theory Special Issue: After the dust hast settled: Commentary to the Dow Theory primary bear market signal
posted on: October 16, 2014
Trends in gold and silver have not changed Let’s make a brief recap. Yesterday I announced that stocks are under a primary bear market. You can find the details here. The primary bull market started on June 24th, 2013 (on that they were made the final primary bear market lows). The primary bull market was […]
Dow Theory Update for June 23: We shouldn’t be cocksure, mindless technicians
posted on: June 23, 2014
Trends unchanged In the last few days, I have written several posts disdaining fundamentalist myopia (for example, here and here). I could even look cocksure about the infallibility of technical analysis (and especially the Dow Theory), and, hence, as myopic as the very fundamentalists I criticize. So, yes: I have my fundamentally-based fears. Of course, […]
Dow Theory special issue: Today’s volume for the S&P 500 has been very bearish
posted on: June 20, 2014
Intelligent money (whatever that is) seems to be dumping S&P stocks While this doesn’t entail a primary bear market signal, nor (at least yet) a secondary reaction against the primary bull market, it certainly displays that something is brewing. Given that the S&P closed down, I’d say today’s huge volume might be indicative of, at […]
Dow Theory Update for June 20: Gold and Silver miners ETFs close to signaling primary bull market signal
posted on: June 20, 2014
Industrials make higher highs. Yesterday, I couldn’t post. My apologies. Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that I spare no punches when it comes to criticizing some market letters writers. However, Dave Moenning, of the “stateofthemarkets.com”, together with Schannep, of “thedowtheory.com“, is worth of praise. Yesterday, Dave posted his latest article entitled “2014: […]
Dow Theory Update for June 17: When Dow Theorist lose it (II). Some bullish reasons, which may be wrong (as with all fundamentals) to give pause to the bears.
posted on: June 17, 2014
Is Zero Hedge giving the “fundamental” answer? Yesterday I took to task those Dow Theorists, who, betraying their trade (pun intended), ignore the technical messages of the market. I wrote that many fundamentalists were scratching their head with unbelief because they consider the stock market irrational. According to them, stocks are expensive, the economy […]
Dow Theory Update for June 16: When Dow Theorists lose it. Russell or how to put aside the Dow Theory and miss a bull market.
posted on: June 16, 2014
Trends remain unchanged Recently, Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, considered by some as the dean of the Dow Theorists has written: “A primary bear market in the stock market and the US economy began in 2007. The bear market in the US economy is continuing to this day. But the Federal Reserve […]
Dow Theory Update for June 5: Fact, fiction and Momentum investing
posted on: June 5, 2014
Debunking anti-trend following myths and how the Dow Theory boosts momentum strategies. AQR Capital Management has recently issued a working paper, which confirms something Dow Theorists, and in general trend followers have never doubted: Momentum (trend following) works. Dorsey Wright’s website has published the whole paper, which you can read here. The conclusions […]
Dow Theory Update for June 4: Steen Jakobsen Expects A 30% Stock Market Correction in 2014
posted on: June 4, 2014
Should Dow Theorists panic? Zero Hedge reports that Steen Jakobsen, Chief Investment Officer of Saxo Bank, believes that in the second half of 2014 stocks are likely to correct 30%. Such a prediction is based on fundamental reasons, of course. So what should be done? My answer: Nothing. We should do nothing because as Dow […]
Dow Theory Update for June 3: Is it a secular bull market?
posted on: June 3, 2014
We, primary trend Dow Theorists, simply don’t care Ed Yardeni, of the Dr. Ed’s Blog, has just posted that the Dow Theory is bullish. I agree with him. In his post, he states (something which has been defended by Schannep of “thedowtheory.com” long time ago) that we are in the midst of a powerful secular […]
Coiled markets and the Dow Theory: A closer look to TLT and IEF ETFs
posted on: April 28, 2014
In my last post, I wrote about consolidations I see occurring in several markets. Well, let’s take a look at interest rates (TLT and IEF, the 20+ years and 7-10 years bonds ETFs, respectively). It will be a very cursory analysis, as my time remains in short supply. Here you have the vital chart which […]
Dow Theory special issue: Dow Theory Review for 2013.
posted on: January 3, 2014
Putting 2013 in perspective Let’s briefly recap how our Dow Theory analysis fared in 2013. Did we do a good job at determining the primary trend of the markets? This post should be an eye-opener for many skeptics. US Stocks The year began on January 2 with a primary bull market signal, as you can […]
Dow Theory Update for December 26: Stocks make higher highs and primary bull market remains unchallenged
posted on: December 26, 2013
More on the primary bear market anniversary in gold and silver Last Tuesday24th, I wrote about the first anniversary of the primary bear market signal in gold and silver. Today, I’d like to add a couple of random thoughts on this issue. It is good to remember that many experts had been trying unsuccessfully […]
