Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)
posted on: August 29, 2016
What happens to the Dow Theory when the market enters into “fibrillation” (Narrow ranges)? We continue our saga of looking at the Dow Theory from all possible angles (specially the stressful ones). Narrow ranges are the plague to trend followers. While the Dow Theory by integrating the time and extent element is less prone than […]
Dow Theory Update for August 10: Two interesting articles which may help investors
posted on: August 10, 2016
Trends unchanged The Industrials remain below their secondary reaction closing highs, and hence no primary bull market signal has been signaled. More about this here The first article clearly shows that making money in the market is not so easy. Even for buy and hold, and assuming the very lenient US stock market for investors […]
Dow Theory Update for July 21: Two typical Dow Theory misconceptions (II)
posted on: July 21, 2016
And setting the record straight I am writing before the open. Misconception 2: Lack of confirmation suffices to change a trend A recent article post on Zero Hedge with the bombastic title “The One Key Indicator Pointing To A Bear Market” makes two errors. The first one is to assume that the market is still […]
Dow Theory Update for July 19: Two typical Dow Theory misconceptions (I)
posted on: July 19, 2016
And setting the record straight Many badmouth the Dow Theory, and I must say for a good reason. Yes, criticism aimed at the Dow Theory does not surprise me because it is casually studied and applied. It appalls me to read many “experts” getting things half right, which is tantamount when investing money to half […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Does it make sense to short with the Dow Theory?
posted on: July 8, 2016
Primary and Secondary Trends unchanged This post is my answer to Algyros, a faithful follower of this blog. Basically, he asked about shorting with the Dow Theory. Does it make sense? My first answer read as follows (link to it here): I’d summarize my opinion concerning shorting as follows: • Primary bear markets last less […]
Dow Theory Special issue: How good is Schannep’s Dow Theory at picking bottoms and exiting tops?
posted on: July 1, 2016
Trends unchanged on stocks and precious metals. On many occasions, and based on my observations of Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals, I have written that buy signals tend to be signaled at roughly 5-7% from the lows (bottom) and sell signals at around 5-7% from the highs (top). I must confess […]
Dow Theory Update for June 27: Primary bear market unambiguously signaled for US stocks on Friday 24
posted on: June 27, 2016
Trends for precious metals and miners unchanged This post has been written and matured during the weekend. It is being posted some 25 minutes after the open of Monday 27. US STOCKS Well, the markets have cast their ballot too. Today, Friday, June 24th, the S&P 500 has closed 3 points below its May 19th […]
Dow Theory Update for May 9: McKinsey Global Institute’s report and what to expect of the Dow Theory over the next 20 years
posted on: May 9, 2016
US stocks flirting with secondary reaction Dow Theory Update for May 9: McKinsey Global Institute’s report and what to expect of the Dow Theory over the next 20 years. US stocks flirting with secondary reaction US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. […]
Dow Theory Update for April 14: More about the primary bull market signal for stocks
posted on: April 14, 2016
Trends for gold and silver and their stocks unchanged This is going to be a long post. Please bear with me, and take your time to absorb it. Since writing this post has taken a good deal of focus and energy, I’d likely take a pause in the coming days (unless trends change). Yesterday, a […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (IV)
posted on: March 10, 2016
Will future secular bear markets allow the Dow Theory to outperform buy and hold? Will future secular bear markets be so obliging to the Dow Theory as past ones? The preceding two posts of this saga (here and here) dealt with the Dow Theory performance under secular bear markets. I concluded that I thought that […]
And why most investors should avoid them Some weeks ago, one reader of this Dow Theory blog alleged that the focus on “timing” the market, and hence avoiding drawdowns was not a good idea, since in the long run US stocks (or at least US stock indices) end up being winners. Furthermore, no dividends are […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (III)
posted on: February 8, 2016
Additional remarks concerning performance under secular bear markets As a consequence of my second post concerning the Dow Theory stress-test, Alpha Dow posted this comment: Hi there. First of all — I love the site. I’m an 18yr disciple of Dow Theory and a subscriber to Schannep and a practitioner myself. There is a dearth […]
