Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for October 13: Even “normal” trend following works if you are patient.

posted on: October 13, 2022

Trend following works BUT most people cannot digest the spells of underperformance and/or drawdowns that inevitably occur. You must be patient and control your fears. The chart below is taken from the October monthly report of a very successful trend-following fund with a track record starting in April 99. The red lines show all […]

Dow Theory Update for October 12: Heretical interpretations of the Dow Theory

posted on: October 12, 2022

Not everything promoted as “Dow Theory” is the correct Dow Theory Three years ago, I wrote a saga of three posts explaining what I consider “divergent” interpretations of the Dow Theory, namely interpretations that do not fully reflect what true Dow Theorists like Robert Rhea did, and are likely to result in underperformance. More […]

Dow Theory Update for September 22: Primary bear market for bonds signaled on 9/20/22

posted on: September 22, 2022

No secondary reaction on the horizon General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More […]

Free virtual Event at the MoneyShow. Join me to learn how to build a Dow Theory-based portfolio with ETFs

posted on: September 20, 2022

Mark the date: Sept. 27, 2022 (12:50 pm to 1:20 pm EDT) Join me Live in Person at the Virtual MoneyShow next September 27, 2022 (12:50 pm to 1:20 pm EDT).I will explain how to use the Dow Theory to trade all kinds of ETFs, to build a diversified portfolio with marked drawdown reduction […]

Dow Theory Update for September 19: Halmiton’s market calls (1900-1929) revisited

posted on: September 19, 2022

Does the classical Dow Theory yield positive risk-adjusted returns? The answer is: YES. The article linked below penned by William Goetzmann proves that the market calls made by Dow Theorist Hamilton from 1902 to 1929 beat buy and hold on a risk-adjusted basis. https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download;jsessionid=9D2DF4DC55D81DA9EEFADA02B019F9F2?doi=10.1.1.199.1866&rep=rep1&type=pdf The edited chart below extracted from the linked […]

Dow Theory Update for September 13: U.S. bonds flirting with a primary bear market signal

posted on: September 13, 2022

But not there yet! General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about it here. […]

Dow Theory Update for September 5: Primary bear market for SLV and GLD reconfirmed on 9/1/22

posted on: September 5, 2022

GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/30/22. Following the 7/20/22 closing lows for GLD and 7/25/2022 for SLV, a secondary (bullish) reaction against the primary bear market developed. After […]

Dow Theory Update for September 3: Primary bear market for SIL and GDX reconfirmed on 8/30/22

posted on: September 3, 2022

Primary bear market for GLD and SLV reconfirmed on 9/1/22. Very soon, I will pen a new post concerning GLD and SLV. The overall picture for precious metals is bearish. I don’t want to give names, but when I signaled a primary bear market, I was criticized. The perma-bulls had an arsenal of reasons for […]

Dow Theory Update for August 26: U.S. bonds under a secondary reaction against the primary bull market

posted on: August 26, 2022

I am posting before the close. So things might change after the close. So readers beware. US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about […]

Dow Theory Update for August 25: Setup for a primary bull market completed for GDX and SIL (precious metals miners’ ETFs)

posted on: August 25, 2022

I am posting before the close so things might change. Readers beware. GOLD AND SILVER MINERS ETFs A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/23/22. Following the 7/25/22 closing lows for both GDX and for […]

Dow Theory Update for August 24: Setup for a primary bull market completed for precious metals

posted on: August 24, 2022

Gold and Silver miners ETFs have also set up from a potential primary bull market signal GOLD AND SILVER A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. As I explained here, the primary and secondary trend was signaled as bearish on 6/30/22. Following the 7/20/22 closing […]

Dow Theory Update for August 15: Update on the trend for U.S. bonds on Alessio Rastani YouTube channel

posted on: August 15, 2022

Famed Youtuber and successful trader Alessio Rastani and I have been discussing the current trend for U.S. bonds and its implications for the economy. Click on the link below to see the interview: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ey0SPpb6BXk&t=2s And to see our past interview on gold: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pG7j0aXlXx8&t=3s I highly recommend Alessio’s channel. It is loaded with great, enjoyable, and […]