Category: Insights

Dow Theory Signals Bear Market in Bonds on 5/19/2026

posted on: May 20, 2026

Once again, the principle of confirmation gave a warning. Overview: High crude oil prices are finally exerting inflationary pressure. With year-over-year CPI at 3.8%, bond yields have finally succumbed, and a new bear market in bonds, implying higher interest rates, was signaled on 5/19/26 As higher interest rates seem to be fueled by rising inflation […]

Warning: Setup for potential primary bear market signal for Gold and Silver completed on 3/31/26

posted on: April 7, 2026

Key price levels to watch are revealed in this post Overview: GLD and SLV underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action completed the setup for a potential bear market signal on 3/31/26. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains in force. General Remarks: […]

Critical Juncture for Gold and Silver miners: Bear Market Signal One Step Away

posted on: March 27, 2026

In the meantime, the primary trend is still bullish, but it could change soon Overview: GDX and SIL underwent a secondary reaction against the primary bull market. The recent price action completed the setup for a potential bear market signal on 3/25/26. Please mind the word “potential”, which implies that the primary bull market remains […]

The Four Industrial Revolutions: Why AI Changes Market Timing Forever

posted on: March 10, 2026

AI makes market timing more necessary than ever. By George Morton, Ph.D The stock market has always reflected the underlying economy, but not all economic transitions are created equal. Over the past 250 years, four industrial revolutions have reshaped how value is created, who captures it, and how fast leadership changes hands. For investors, the […]

Strategic Market Timing for Luxury Superyacht Construction

posted on: January 16, 2026

Super Yacht Builders’ Guide to Counter-Cyclical Growth By George Morton, PhD, January 2026 Executive Summary Dow Theorist Hamilton, in his 1922 book The Stock Market Barometer: A Study of Its Forecast Value, described the averages as a reliable barometer for forecasting trends in business activity (including industrial aspects). He emphasized its predictive power for economic/industrial […]

Bull market for the gold and silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) confirmed on 12/11/25

posted on: December 13, 2025

The melt up for precious metals continues Overview: What was just a secondary reaction against the bullish trend turned out to be nothing, as higher confirmed highs by SIL and GDX have reaffirmed the primary bull market. The trend in gold and silver is so powerful that their pullbacks didn’t even count as secondary reactions. […]

The Principle of Confirmation Can Save Your Skin (V) / Example 5: Bitcoin’s breakup that was a bull trap

posted on: November 14, 2025

Applying the Confirmation Principle to Bitcoin In four earlier analyses (HERE, HERE, HERE , and HERE ), I showed how the Principle of Confirmation works across U.S. stock indexes, bonds, crypto, and precious metals. In each case, the principle proved invaluable in filtering out false moves. The idea is simple but powerful: a breakout or […]

Gold and Silver Miners ETF at a critical juncture: Setup for a potential Bear market signal completed on 11/10/25

posted on: November 12, 2025

Overview: The gold and silver miners ETF reached a make-or-break moment on 11/10/25. The setup for a potential bear market is complete, and the line in the sand has been drawn. Please mind the word “potential”. Only if the two read lines I show in the chart below are jointly pierced, the trend will shift […]

The Principle of Confirmation Can Save Your Skin (IV) / Example 4: Two Silver Breakdowns That Turned into Bear Traps

posted on: October 25, 2025

Applying the Confirmation Principle to precious metals In three earlier analyses (HERE, HERE, and HERE), I showed how the Principle of Confirmation works across U.S. stock indexes, bonds, and crypto. In each case, the principle proved invaluable in filtering out false moves. The idea is simple but powerful: a breakout or breakdown that is not […]

When Market Timing Meets Quant Research: The Results Speak for Themselves

posted on: October 17, 2025

How world-class quant research and timing filters slash drawdowns and boost returns. What happens when you combine a strong stock-picking strategy with first-class trend following? Something remarkable happens: returns surge, drawdowns shrink, and consistency improves dramatically. That’s exactly what the two charts below reveal. This article was originally a brief social media post, but the […]

Why Bitcoin’s Bull Market Isn’t Over Yet

posted on: October 7, 2025

On October 3rd, I had the pleasure of joining Maurizio Pedrazzoli Grazioli’s podcast for the second time. We picked up right where we left off from our previous conversation—when we called the bottom of Bitcoin on April 8th—and once again, we explored some bold bullish scenarios that, at the time, were far from obvious. Fast […]

Why Today’s Stock Market Valuations Are Not Excessive: Liquidity, Capital Accumulation, and the Repricing of Risk

posted on: September 16, 2025

How liquidity and rising wealth explain today’s high valuations in the stock market Introduction Many market commentators warn that stock valuations are dangerously high, pointing to elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios and market cap-to-GDP levels as evidence of a bubble. These warnings often rely on outdated benchmarks. What was considered expensive fifty years ago isn’t necessarily […]