Category: Insights

The Theory Update for April 18: Depending on how one appraises the secondary reaction SIL and GDX could be in a primary bull market since April 9th

posted on: April 18, 2020

Secondary (bullish) reaction for US stocks under the Classical Dow Theory I am polishing a relevant post concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions. As you know, the correct assessment of secondary reactions is vital as we derive the primary bull and bear market signals from them. The introductory post can be found here. Please […]

Dow Theory Update for April 8th: New bull market for US stocks signaled on April 6th, 2020

posted on: April 8, 2020

Should we consider the existence of a secondary reaction in precious metals and US interest rates? General remark: Even if you usually only read “US Stocks”, please read the sections concerning precious metals and US interest rates, since they contain several musings which I consider important in order to become more profitable (and drawdown contained) […]

Dow Theory Update for April 4th: Did Rhea really tell that secondary reactions had to last three weeks?

posted on: April 4, 2020

A study on the proper appraisal of secondary reactions as taught by Rhea I am re-reading (for 10th, 11th time?) Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory,” and I am unearthing many gems. Those gems relate to the thorny issue of appraising secondary reactions. The proper ascertainment of a secondary reaction is vital. The lows of secondary […]

Dow Theory Update for March 28th: Watch the S&P 500. If it rallied a little bit more a bull market would be signaled

posted on: March 28, 2020

Trends unchanged for all the markets I cover US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary trend is bearish since March 9th (penetration of the lows of the current secondary reaction) or even February 25th (alternative exit based on the penetration of the lows of the previously completed secondary reaction), as explained here. Of course, the […]

Dow Theory Update for March 21st: Secular trend for US stocks turned bearish on March 21st, 2020

posted on: March 21, 2020

Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, US interest rates, precious metals and their ETFs miners unchanged US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary trend is bearish since March 9th (penetration of the lows of the current secondary reaction) or even February 25th (alternative exit based on the penetration of the lows of […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Back to Divergent interpretations of the “classical” Dow Theory (IV)

posted on: March 16, 2020

Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, precious metals and their miners ETFs and US interest rates When I thought that all was said and done concerning this saga (see here, here and here). Once again, I feel that some remarks concerning what I consider to be a quite “nonreactive” interpretation of the […]

Dow Theory Update for March 12th: Primary bear market for Precious Metals miners ETFs signaled yesterday

posted on: March 12, 2020

Trends for Gold and Silver, US stocks and US interest rates unchanged Excursus: Recent developments are contributing to further cementing my faith in trend following (when properly applied), and, in particular, the Dow Theory, and to remain impervious to many siren’s songs. I’ll give you one example. Last February 26th, I was perusing an economy […]

Dow Theory Update for March 10th: Primary bear market for US stocks signaled on March 9th

posted on: March 10, 2020

I am writing before the close. So readers beware. US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory As I explained here, US stocks completed the setup for a primary bear market signal on March 4th. On 03/05/2020 the Transports penetrated the March 3thclosing lows unconfirmed. Hence, no signal. Yesterday, March 9th, the Industrials and the […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Some introspection. Let’s go back to the basics in order to make the next leap forward (II)

posted on: March 7, 2020

Comparing Schannep’s Dow Theory to 21 years of buy and hold As I wrote in my last post, there are many projects expanding the Dow Theory in the pipeline. However, before we embark upon discovering new uses for the Dow Theory, we’d better remain on solid ground. To this end, we are going to compare […]

Dow Theory Update for March 5: Setup for primary bear market signal completed on March 4th for US stocks

posted on: March 5, 2020

Gold and Silver were on the edge of a primary bear market signal US STOCKS Under Schannep’s Dow Theory The primary trend, signaled on 10/25/2019, remains bullish as was explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here Last Friday, February 28th, US stocks were […]

Dow Theory Update for February 27: In spite of all the turmoil, no primary bear market has been signaled.

posted on: February 27, 2020

Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, precious metals, and their ETFs miners and US interest rates. Well, world stock markets are falling in earnest. However, in spite of all the turmoil, no primary bear market has been signaled for US stocks. According to Schannep’s Dow Theory we still need a rally of at […]

Dow Theory Update for February 25: Secondary trends have changed for US Stocks, Gold and Silver Miners ETFs and US interest rates

posted on: February 25, 2020

Primary and secondary trend for gold and silver unchanged Well, yesterday, February 24, was a day full in Dow Theory relevant events. Let’s get started. Last week I wrote that I wanted to pen a post concerning the last primary bull market in gold and silver. Such a post will have to wait as I […]