Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for August 2: Secondary reaction for US stocks signaled today

posted on: August 2, 2019

Primary and secondary trend for gold, silver and their ETFs miners bullish This post has been amended on 08/06/2019. I thank Jack Schannep for spotting two mistakes I inadvertently made when determining the onset of the secondary reaction. First, The Industrials had been declining since 07/15 and not 07/23/2019, as I wrote. Secondly, I twisted […]

Dow Theory Update for July 18: Primary bull market reconfirmed for Gold, Silver and their ETF miners

posted on: July 18, 2019

Trends unchanged for US stock indices I have no time to blog. However, please be advised that yesterday SIL finally broke up above its last recorded primary bull market highs, and hence confirmed GDX which had done so some time ago. Since the primary trend was already bullish, the new confirmed breakout merely signals: a) […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (V)

posted on: July 11, 2019

Measuring the risk when catching falling knives. So great? As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html Since capitulation is a mean reversing tool, and, by definition, we don’t wait until the trend shows signs of reversing, we are catching the proverbial “falling knife”. This means […]

Dow Theory Update for July 8: Primary and secondary trend for US indices bullish

posted on: July 8, 2019

Primary trend for gold, silver and their ETF miners bullish. Secondary trend remains bearish US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows. However, “capitulation” suggested the opening of a […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation The ultimate bottom indicator (IV)

posted on: July 4, 2019

Shortening of the time requirement for secondary reactions As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html As I explained in the past, “capitulation” is a mean reversing tool. When markets get severely oversold, we derogate from trend following, and bet for a trend reversal. The track record […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Which markets are better suited to the Dow Theory (and Trend following in general) and the reason why

posted on: June 26, 2019

The power of trends and why it is not wise to disregard a Dow Theory signal based on the belief that the market is already overstretched. This is another post that I was written on June 19th at Nashville’s airport while being stranded due to bad weather conditions. However, it has been “matured” and edited […]

Dow Theory Update for June 19th: Gold breaks up above primary bull market highs unconfirmed by Silver

posted on: June 19, 2019

Same with GDX unconfirmed by SIL I am stranded in an airport due to very bad weather conditions in USA. Lighting, floods, flights cancelled, etc. Let’s try to get done a quick post. US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the […]

Dow Theory Update for June 14: No news since last week’s post

posted on: June 14, 2019

Primary and secondary Trends unchanged for both US stocks and precious metals and their ETF miners I will be travelling in the next few days, so I feel I won’t be able to post for at least one week. When I find time, I’d like to continue writing my “capitulation” saga. US STOCKS The primary […]

Dow Theory Update for June 6th: Setup for primary bear market completed in US stocks

posted on: June 6, 2019

Primary trend for US stocks remains bullish I am publishing on June 6th before the open, what I wrote after the close of June 5th US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 […]

Dow Theory Update for June 5th: Primary bear market setup completed for gold, silver and their miners’ EFT

posted on: June 5, 2019

I am writing on June 5th, 2019 before the close. So things might change by then. The charts shown have been produced at the close of June 4th, 2019 US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at […]

Dow Theory Update for May 31: Secondary reaction for stocks continues

posted on: May 31, 2019

No primary bear market has been signaled for precious metals US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows. However, “capitulation” suggested the opening of a partial commitment to stocks […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (III)

posted on: May 22, 2019

Performance after capitulation: Further advances and declines At last I found some time to pen a new post concerning capitulation. The proof of the pudding is in the eating. In this post, we will describe what happens after capitulation has occurred. Do we get strong rallies after capitulation? If yes, then the indicator has some […]