Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for October 11: Gauging the current situation with precious metals

posted on: October 11, 2019

Trends unchanged for US stocks Today is a post that took a good deal of analysis and time to write. Take your time to fully digest it. US STOCKS A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was […]

Dow Theory Update for September 25: Setup for primary bull market signal completed for US stocks on 09/19/2019

posted on: September 25, 2019

Primary and secondary trends for precious metals unchanged A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. A secondary reaction against the primary bear market was signaled on August 30, as explained here. On 09/19/2019 the Transports declined more than 3% from their secondary reaction closing highs. On […]

Dow Theory Update for September 16: US Stocks close to signaling primary bull market

posted on: September 16, 2019

Trends for precious metals unchanged First of all, I apologize for not having written since August 30. I still owe two posts: One concerning the analysis of the last primary bull market signal, and one concerning the next issue of the capitulation saga. Time has been in extremely short supply in the last few weeks. […]

Dow Theory Update for August 30:Secondary reaction for US stocks signaled today

posted on: August 30, 2019

Trends for Gold, silver and their ETFs miners unchanged US STOCKS A primary bear market for US stocks was signaled on August 14th, 2019 as explained here. The Industrials and S&P 500 stopped their decline on that very day. The Transports further declined until 08/27/2019. From these dates all indeces have rallied making higher highs […]

Dow Theory Update for August 15: Primary bear market signalled for US stocks on August 14th

posted on: August 15, 2019

Trends for precious metals and their ETF miners unchanged This post has been amended on 08/16/2019. I thank Jack Schannep for spotting one minor mistake I inadvertently made when determining the total decline of the S&P 500 from the top made on 07/26/2019 to the day the primary bear market was signalled (08/14/2019). I took […]

Dow Theory Update for August 14: US stock indices set up for primary bear market signal

posted on: August 14, 2019

Trends for gold, silver and their ETF miners unchanged I am writing before the close, so things might change. Readers beware. US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing […]

Dow Theory Update for August 6: Trends unchanged; precious metals and US bonds continue making higher highs true to their primary trend.

posted on: August 6, 2019

Secondary reaction for US stocks continues I am writing before the close. So things might change. US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows. However, “capitulation” suggested the opening […]

Dow Theory Update for August 2: Secondary reaction for US stocks signaled today

posted on: August 2, 2019

Primary and secondary trend for gold, silver and their ETFs miners bullish This post has been amended on 08/06/2019. I thank Jack Schannep for spotting two mistakes I inadvertently made when determining the onset of the secondary reaction. First, The Industrials had been declining since 07/15 and not 07/23/2019, as I wrote. Secondly, I twisted […]

Dow Theory Update for July 18: Primary bull market reconfirmed for Gold, Silver and their ETF miners

posted on: July 18, 2019

Trends unchanged for US stock indices I have no time to blog. However, please be advised that yesterday SIL finally broke up above its last recorded primary bull market highs, and hence confirmed GDX which had done so some time ago. Since the primary trend was already bullish, the new confirmed breakout merely signals: a) […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation. The ultimate bottom indicator (V)

posted on: July 11, 2019

Measuring the risk when catching falling knives. So great? As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/07/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html Since capitulation is a mean reversing tool, and, by definition, we don’t wait until the trend shows signs of reversing, we are catching the proverbial “falling knife”. This means […]

Dow Theory Update for July 8: Primary and secondary trend for US indices bullish

posted on: July 8, 2019

Primary trend for gold, silver and their ETF miners bullish. Secondary trend remains bearish US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows. However, “capitulation” suggested the opening of a […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Capitulation The ultimate bottom indicator (IV)

posted on: July 4, 2019

Shortening of the time requirement for secondary reactions As a reminder, I have been writing about capitulation in the following posts. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/03/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation_22.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2019/05/dow-theory-special-issue-capitulation.html As I explained in the past, “capitulation” is a mean reversing tool. When markets get severely oversold, we derogate from trend following, and bet for a trend reversal. The track record […]