Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for August 2: US stocks set up for primary bull market signal

posted on: August 2, 2016

Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend is bullish (secondary reaction against the primary trend), as all three indices (Industrials, Transports and SP 500) have been rallying for more than 8 trading days (average of the three indices) and each of them […]

Dow Theory Update for July 21: Two typical Dow Theory misconceptions (II)

posted on: July 21, 2016

And setting the record straight I am writing before the open. Misconception 2: Lack of confirmation suffices to change a trend A recent article post on Zero Hedge with the bombastic title “The One Key Indicator Pointing To A Bear Market” makes two errors. The first one is to assume that the market is still […]

Dow Theory Update for July 19: Two typical Dow Theory misconceptions (I)

posted on: July 19, 2016

And setting the record straight Many badmouth the Dow Theory, and I must say for a good reason. Yes, criticism aimed at the Dow Theory does not surprise me because it is casually studied and applied. It appalls me to read many “experts” getting things half right, which is tantamount when investing money to half […]

Dow Theory Update for July 9: We are nearing a primary bull market signal for US Stocks

posted on: July 9, 2016

I don’t have much time to write or to post charts. Stocks closed strongly last Friday 8th. The Industrials and the SPY (S&P 500) have bettered the last recorded primary bull market closing highs of April 20th, 2016. The Industrials failed to do so. One of the primary trend signals according to Schannep’s Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Does it make sense to short with the Dow Theory?

posted on: July 8, 2016

Primary and Secondary Trends unchanged This post is my answer to Algyros, a faithful follower of this blog. Basically, he asked about shorting with the Dow Theory. Does it make sense? My first answer read as follows (link to it here): I’d summarize my opinion concerning shorting as follows: • Primary bear markets last less […]

Dow Theory Special issue: How good is Schannep’s Dow Theory at picking bottoms and exiting tops?

posted on: July 1, 2016

Trends unchanged on stocks and precious metals. On many occasions, and based on my observations of Schannep’s Dow Theory primary bull and bear market signals, I have written that buy signals tend to be signaled at roughly 5-7% from the lows (bottom) and sell signals at around 5-7% from the highs (top). I must confess […]

Dow Theory Update for June 29: Primary bull market for Gold and Silver reconfirmed

posted on: June 29, 2016

Silver and Gold miners ETFs made new confirmed higher highs US STOCKS The primary trend turned bearish on June 24th, as was profusely explained here. The secondary trend, evidently, is bearish too, as no secondary reaction has been born. The current rally is irrelevant from a Dow Theory standpoint, as the minimum time requirement has […]

Dow Theory Update for June 27: Primary bear market unambiguously signaled for US stocks on Friday 24

posted on: June 27, 2016

Trends for precious metals and miners unchanged This post has been written and matured during the weekend. It is being posted some 25 minutes after the open of Monday 27. US STOCKS Well, the markets have cast their ballot too. Today, Friday, June 24th, the S&P 500 has closed 3 points below its May 19th […]

Dow Theory Update for June 22: A closer look to the current US stock market situation

posted on: June 22, 2016

How the classical and Schannep’s Dow Theory complement each other I am writing before the close. US STOCKS The primary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction), as explained here. As I alerted here, US stocks have set up for a […]

Dow Theory Update for June 20: Trends remain unchanged

posted on: June 20, 2016

Narrow ranges prevail I am writing before the close of June 20th. There is lot of noise in all markets. Basically, all longer term trends fail to reassert themselves and markets are caught in trading ranges. This is the typical environment when trading with moving averages (or breakout systems) may prove to be devastating, as […]

Dow Theory Update for June 10: Gold and Silver have set up for primary bear market signal.

posted on: June 10, 2016

Trends unchanged. I am writing before the open of June 10th. US STOCKS The primary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction), as explained here. As I alerted here, US stocks have set up for a primary bear market signal. The […]

Dow Theory Update for June 8: Gold and Silver miners ETFs break up to new closing high

posted on: June 8, 2016

And hence not even a secondary reaction existed for them US STOCKS The primary trend (as determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory) is bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction), as explained here. As I alerted here, US stocks have set up for a primary bear market signal. The Industrials […]