Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: On the deceptiveness of trying to gauge value versus cold hard technical action

posted on: June 6, 2015

Now it could be that stocks are not so overvalued after all. This article on Ritholz blog “The Big Picture” seems to suggest that if we adjust for current inflation valuations are not expensive at all. So, all the chatter of overvaluation notwithstanding, it could be that there is not so much secular headwind for […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: US bonds flashing primary bear market signal

posted on: June 3, 2015

We have to wait to today’s close to be sure. Some days ago, I alerted that US debt was flirting with a primary bear market signal. Furthermore, I made clear that a new primary bull market had been signaled for the Euro and CHF. I am writing before the close, so my conclusions are not […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Dual Momentum versus Dow Theory

posted on: May 30, 2015

Trends remain unchanged I have compared in the past the Dow Theory versus moving averages. Let’s compare now the Dow Theory and Dual Momentum. This post is the edited correspondence with one follower of this Dow Theory blog. He, like I, has read the book “Dual Momentum Investing“, by Gary Antonacci. By the way, I […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: A closer look at the Chinese primary bull market in stocks

posted on: May 20, 2015

Some days ago, I made a cursory reference to an ongoing primary bull market in Chinese stocks. One reader of this Dow Theory blog kindly asked me to further analyze the bull market in Chinese stocks. As I explained here, the Dow Theory can also be applied to foreign stocks indices and even assets other […]

Dow Theory Update for May 18: Primary bull market for US Stocks reconfirmed

posted on: May 18, 2015

Trends unchanged in all markets. US STOCKS On 5/14/2015 the SPY bettered its last recorded primary bull market closing high of 3/2/2015. Today the Industrials has confirmed by exceeding its 3/2/2015 closing high. As per my reading of the Dow Theory, stocks did not even enter into a secondary reaction, since the lowest confirmed closing […]

Dow Theory Update for May 13: Is the USD bull market over?

posted on: May 13, 2015

EUR under primary bull market as per the Dow Theory. US debt just about to signal primary bear market. Following the suggestion of Algyros, reader of this Dow Theory blog, I have made it easier for its followers to know the current state of the trend (see banner above), as far as I am able […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: “Lines”. Classical Dow Theory and Schannep

posted on: May 11, 2015

Why Schannep’s Dow Theory needs no lines. Trends for US Stocks, gold, silver and their respective miners EFTs remain unchanged. The primary trend for Stocks remains bullish, and the precious metals universe remains bullish. Gold, silver and their ETFs remain caught in an endless secondary reaction. What I wrote some weeks ago remains a faithful […]

Dow Theory Update for May 7: More about the unreliability of trying to gauge the secular trend

posted on: May 7, 2015

Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold, silver and their miners unchanged. The lull continues. So, once again, I’ll focus on issues pertaining to investing with a Dow Theory focus. Today I will delve into secular trends, valuations and what to do about them. This blogger truly yours has been skeptical as to trying to […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: “Internal” confirmation embedded in the Dow Theory: Time should confirm extent and viceversa. Therein lies its force.

posted on: April 29, 2015

Moving averages, Breakout strategies, etc. are no match for the Dow Theory No new from the markets. Primary and secondary trends unchanged. And hence, I will further cogitate about the Dow Theory. Such moments of market lull are good to rethink one’s premises. The more I know the entrails of the Dow Theory, the more […]

Dow Theory Update for April 21: Dow Theory, Trend following, noise and non parametric systems

posted on: April 21, 2015

Nothing has changed. Primary and Secondary trends remain the same. Trends have not changed. So what I wrote in my last post remains valid. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-10-trends.html So let’s take advantage of the lack of news, to ponder a bit about trends, their nature and how to make money out of them. Now we have time […]

Dow Theory Update for April 10: Trends unchanged

posted on: April 10, 2015

More on Gary Antonacci One gentle reader recommended me this interview with Gary Antonacci. I recommend it to the readers of this Dow Theory blog too. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-LmujiWPTs If I were to forget all about the Dow Theory, dual momentum would be my choice without hesitation. Furthermore, one could have two different portfolios: The first one, […]

Dow Theory Update: This is getting boring; but nobody said that investing should be fun. It must be profitable

posted on: April 9, 2015

Primary and secondary trends unchanged. This is getting boring. Weeks pass by and US Stocks, gold, silver and their miners ETFs have not changed their trends. We remain disciplined and continue watching the markets. So what I wrote in my last post (and links pertaining thereto) remains fully valid. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/04/dow-theory-update-for-april-2-primary.html Sincerely, The Dow Theorist