Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for August 5: No primary bear market signal for US Stocks (yet or never)

posted on: August 5, 2015

Trends unchanged for US Stocks and gold universe US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate […]

Dow Theory Update for July 29: Lessons (re)learned from the precious metals universe and Chinese stocks

posted on: July 29, 2015

Trends remain unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in […]

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Primary bear market for (paper) Gold and silver signaled today

posted on: July 15, 2015

I don’t have much time to blog today. However, take my word for it: GLD by violating March 17, 2015 closing lows has signaled a primary bear market today. Thus, the entire precious metals universe (and their gold and silver miners ETFs) is in a bearish mode. The primary trend for stocks remains bullish, albeit […]

Dow Theory Update for July 13: US Stocks set up for primary bear market

posted on: July 13, 2015

Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html The Transports have rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. The SPY and Industrials have failed to reach the 3% threshold. However, […]

Dow Theory Update for July 8: Gold and Silver flirting with the bear.

posted on: July 8, 2015

GDX and SIL under a primary bear market. US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html GOLD AND SILVER The primary trend is bullish as explained here. The secondary trend turned bearish on February […]

Dow Theory Update for July 1: Dissecting the ongoing secondary reaction for US stocks

posted on: July 1, 2015

Is paper gold dying? Yesterday, I warned that the secondary trend for stocks had turned bearish on June 29th (secondary reaction against the primary bull market). Please mind that I slightly depart from Schannep when it comes to considering “in the clear” signals and subsequent secondary reactions. More about this small discrepancy here and here. […]

Dow Theory Update for June 30: Secondary (bearish) Reaction for stocks since June 29

posted on: June 30, 2015

No time now for deep explanations, which will come tomorrow, if time allows. Take my word: The secondary trend for US Stocks turned bearish on June 29. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Special Issue: Maximum Drawdown and average returns for the Dow Theory versus buy and hold

posted on: June 29, 2015

Trends remain unchanged. This post is the detailed answer to one question posed by a follower of this Dow Theory blog. Hope it will serve Algyros and other readers to further a deeper understanding of the Dow Theory. Here is question: “I was wondering if you had CAGR and Max DD backtested information for your […]

Dow Theory Update for June 24: Gary Antonacci on stops. Let’ s heed the words of a sage

posted on: June 24, 2015

Trends remain unchanged There are three names that shine when it comes to (a) investment practical acumen; (b) avoid BS. These names are (in alphabetical order): 1) Antonacci. http://www.dualmomentum.net/ 2) Moening http://stateofthemarkets.com/ 3) Schannep https://thedowtheory.com/ I have praised Antonacci’s work in the past (here and here). He has recently penned a new article entitled “Momentum […]

Dow Theory Update for June 18: Chinese stocks are undergoing a (bearish) secondary reaction

posted on: June 18, 2015

Trends unchanged. US stocks: The ranging continues, and with it, trends have not changed. Thus, as per my reading of the Dow Theory, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Here you can find the latest in-depth explanation, which remains fully applicable to current market conditions: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/05/dow-theory-update-for-may-18-primary.html I say that the secondary trend remains bullish, […]

Dow Theory Update for June 10: Nuances concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions.

posted on: June 11, 2015

Trends remain unchanged. We know that the appraisal of secondary reactions is not an easy feat. Accordingly, Rhea wrote that “probably no two students would agree on any rule for selecting and tabulating important secondary reactions” (Rhea’s “The Dow Theory”, Fraser Edition, page 61). Thus, recent price action, and my particular divergence from Schannep’s Dow […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: On the deceptiveness of trying to gauge value versus cold hard technical action

posted on: June 6, 2015

Now it could be that stocks are not so overvalued after all. This article on Ritholz blog “The Big Picture” seems to suggest that if we adjust for current inflation valuations are not expensive at all. So, all the chatter of overvaluation notwithstanding, it could be that there is not so much secular headwind for […]