Category: Insights

Dow Theory Signals Bull Market for Bonds on 6/4/24: Recession or Soft Landing?

posted on: June 6, 2024

US Bonds Turn Bullish: What’s Next for the Economy? Overview: When appraised by the more reactive application of the Dow Theory, the trend of US bonds turned bullish on 6/4/24. The question is: Is the bond market discounting a recession or merely a soft landing resulting in lower inflation? The unemployment rate for May, to […]

Dow Theory Alert: The trend for US bonds could change from bearish to bullish soon. Learn the critical price levels to watch

posted on: June 3, 2024

From Bearish Trend to Potential Bull Market: TLT and IEF Insights Overview: TLT and IEF remain in a primary bear market, but this could change soon. If TLT and IEF jointly surpass their 5/15/24 closing highs, the trend will shift from bearish to bullish. More details are provided below. General Remarks: In this post, I […]

Spotting Recessions and Bear markets: Schannep Recession Indicator vs. Sahm rule

posted on: May 30, 2024

Which one is even better? Spoiler alert: Schannep’s The “Sahm Rule” is a well-known recession indicator created by Claudia Sahm, an economist who worked at the Federal Reserve. This rule identifies the early stages of a recession when the three-month moving average of the U.S. unemployment rate rises by half a percentage point or more […]

Back to “divergent” interpretations of the Dow Theory

posted on: May 27, 2024

Setting Dow Theory concepts straight amidst so much “fake” Dow Theory. Recent Transport weakness relative to the Dow Industrials prompted many “experts” to proclaim that this is a bear market signal. Let’s clarify the concepts. First, divergence and lack of confirmation, while similar, are not the same and have different implications. Divergence entails one […]

Gold and Silver Surge: Dow Theory Confirms Bullish Primary Trend on 5/17/24.

posted on: May 18, 2024

Overview: Higher confirmed highs by SLV and GLD (silver and gold) have reaffirmed the primary bull market. The secondary reaction is over. The most recent pullback in the gold and silver miners’ ETFs (GDX and SIL) was so modest that it did not qualify as a secondary reaction. So, a bull in full gear. General […]

Alessio Rastani Features TheDowTheory.com: Update on the technical landscape for Bitcoin and Ethereum

posted on: April 29, 2024

Alessio Rastani has a knack for making excellent and content-rich videos. As a follower of Alessio’s work for many years, I can attest that he tends to be on the right side of the markets most of the time. In his latest video, he delves into the current technical landscape of Bitcoin and Ethereum. I’m […]

Warning: Bearish alert for Bitcoin and Ethereum

posted on: April 24, 2024

Dow Theory and basic trendline analysis tell us that trouble is brewing with Bitcoin. In my April 1st, 2024 Crypto Report (available only to Subscribers), I wrote that “if Ethereum and Bitcoin jointly pierced the 3/20/23 lows, I would turn bearish”. ETHE decisively violated its 3/20/24 lows on 4/12/24 and continued lower for two days. […]

Melt up (II): Gold and Silver miners ETFs (GDX & SIL) soar triggering a new bull market signal

posted on: April 5, 2024

Overview: Gold and Silver are in a new bull market of their own, as I explained HERE. Now, the miners have joined the rally, and as of 4/3/24, a new bull market has been confirmed. Therefore, regardless of how we analyze it, the trend in the precious metals sector is bullish, as illustrated in the […]

Melt up: gold and silver soar, triggering a new Dow Theory bull market signal on 4/2/24

posted on: April 3, 2024

SIL and GDX are also in a Bull market since 4/3/24 Overview: On 4/3/24, SLV finally surpassed its 12/1/23 closing high at 23.33 and confirmed GLD, which had breached its 12/27/23 highs on 3/1/24. So, now, according to the Dow Theory, a primary bull market in gold and silver has been signaled. Today, 4/3/24, SIL […]

Exploring Effective Investment Strategies with Giacomo Mondonico on Hustle Hub

posted on: March 20, 2024

Learn How the Dow Theory Can Elevate Your Investment Game Being featured on Giacomo Mondonico’s YouTube channel, Hustle Hub, was an absolute pleasure. In our first interview episode, we explored various investment strategies, carefully assessing their effectiveness. Through our analysis, we found that the Dow Theory stands out as a reliable approach for understanding market […]

Unveiling the current trend: Primary bear market for gold and silver miners ETFs signaled on 2/28/24

posted on: March 4, 2024

Bitcoin soars, gold rallies, but silver and gold and silver miners refuse to confirm Overview: Despite the rally that gold has experienced in the last few days that brought gold to higher highs, the primary trend remains bearish because silver has refused to confirm. If/when SLV surpasses its 12/1/23 high, the primary trend would shift […]

Unforeseen CPI Jump Rattles Markets: A Deep Dive into Gold and Silver and their New Bear market signaled on 2/13/24

posted on: February 15, 2024

Gold and Silver are in bearish trends according to the Dow Theory Overview: On 2/13/24, January’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) exceeded expectations, triggering significant market upheaval. The Headline CPI saw a 0.3% month-over-month increase compared to the previous month’s 0.2% rise. This unexpected development led to widespread turmoil: Stocks plummeted. Precious metals and their mining stocks […]