Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for July 1: Stocks make confirmed higher closing highs

posted on: July 1, 2014

Secondary reaction averted US Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. They made higher closing highs (confirmed), which has two implications: a) It is bullish. One day the primary bull market will end, but technically we have been wise not to outsmart the market and stick with the trend. b) It averts the impending […]

Dow Theory Update for June 30: Time requirement for secondary reaction in stocks met (Percentage decline requirement not yet)

posted on: June 30, 2014

Gold, Silver and their miners ETFs made higher (minor) highs US Stocks The SPY closed down. The Transports and Industrials closed up. Stocks are clearly losing momentum. Let’s keep a watchful eye on them, as any decline exceeding 3% could usher stocks into a secondary reaction, since the time requirement for a secondary reaction has […]

Dow Theory Update for June 27: SLV and GLD have not jointly violated the last recorded primary bear market lows for ONE year

posted on: June 27, 2014

Stocks close modestly up and remain prior last recorded closing highs. US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, 2014, for the reasons given […]

Dow Theory Update for June 26: No big news and trends unchanged

posted on: June 26, 2014

Silver edges slightly higher but gold refuses to confirm I didn’t have the time to post yesterday, and it was unnecessary as trends did not change. Sorry! US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed down. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as […]

Dow Theory Update for June 24: Stocks closed down and trends unchanged

posted on: June 24, 2014

GLD and SLV edge modestly up and make higher minor highs US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed down. Last Friday I wrote a Dow Theory special issue where I alerted readers about surging bearish volume. Today’s action seems to confirm that a top has been made. However, it remains to be seen whether […]

Dow Theory Update for June 23: We shouldn’t be cocksure, mindless technicians

posted on: June 23, 2014

Trends unchanged In the last few days, I have written several posts disdaining fundamentalist myopia (for example, here and here). I could even look cocksure about the infallibility of technical analysis (and especially the Dow Theory), and, hence, as myopic as the very fundamentalists I criticize. So, yes: I have my fundamentally-based fears. Of course, […]

Dow Theory special issue: Today’s volume for the S&P 500 has been very bearish

posted on: June 20, 2014

Intelligent money (whatever that is) seems to be dumping S&P stocks While this doesn’t entail a primary bear market signal, nor (at least yet) a secondary reaction against the primary bull market, it certainly displays that something is brewing. Given that the S&P closed down, I’d say today’s huge volume might be indicative of, at […]

Dow Theory Update for June 20: Gold and Silver miners ETFs close to signaling primary bull market signal

posted on: June 20, 2014

Industrials make higher highs. Yesterday, I couldn’t post. My apologies. Readers of this Dow Theory blog know that I spare no punches when it comes to criticizing some market letters writers. However, Dave Moenning, of the “stateofthemarkets.com”, together with Schannep, of “thedowtheory.com“, is worth of praise. Yesterday, Dave posted his latest article entitled “2014: […]

Dow Theory Update for June 18: The SPY makes a higher closing high unconfirmed

posted on: June 18, 2014

SLV makes higher highs unconfirmed by GLD US Stocks The SPY, Transports and Industrials closed up. However, neither the Industrials, nor the Transports deigned to confirm. One day of non-confirmation is not necessary a harbinger of a secondary correction; however, confirmation should follow soon, or else the odds increase for a secondary reaction to develop. […]

Dow Theory Update for June 17: When Dow Theorist lose it (II). Some bullish reasons, which may be wrong (as with all fundamentals) to give pause to the bears.

posted on: June 17, 2014

Is Zero Hedge giving the “fundamental” answer? Yesterday I took to task those Dow Theorists, who, betraying their trade (pun intended), ignore the technical messages of the market. I wrote that many fundamentalists were scratching their head with unbelief because they consider the stock market irrational. According to them, stocks are expensive, the economy […]

Dow Theory Update for June 16: When Dow Theorists lose it. Russell or how to put aside the Dow Theory and miss a bull market.

posted on: June 16, 2014

Trends remain unchanged Recently, Richard Russell, of the Dow Theory Letters, considered by some as the dean of the Dow Theorists has written: “A primary bear market in the stock market and the US economy began in 2007. The bear market in the US economy is continuing to this day. But the Federal Reserve […]

Dow Theory Update: No news, no time, no post.

posted on: June 13, 2014

Sincerely,Dow Theorist