Category: Uncategorized

Breaking: New Signal Triggered on 3/4/25 – Exclusive Update on Trends Available in Subscribers’ Portal

March 4th, 2025, marked a pivotal day for the stock market, prompting strategic adjustments to my two real-money portfolios. On that day, we notified our subscribers via email and Discord. You can also access the email in the  Subscribers’ Portal If you are not a Subscriber yet, you can sign up HERE. Sincerely, Manuel Blay […]

While the Bear market in bonds persists, a secondary reaction was signaled on January 30, 2025

Overview: It looks like all markets are sensing that a new wave of liquidity is about to be released. Gold, stocks, and crypto are edging higher. Notably, even bonds, which have been mired in a bear market, have experienced a rally. General Remarks: In this post, I extensively elaborate on the rationale behind employing two […]

Gold and Silver at a Crossroads: Bull Continuation or Bear Market Ahead?

Breaking Down Gold and Silver: A Critical Moment Overview: In a similar fashion to the gold and Silver miner’s ETFs, gold and silver reached a make-or-break moment on 20/19/24. The setup for a potential bear market has been completed, and the line on the sand has been drawn. In this post, we examine the key […]

Precious Metals Bull Market Confirmed on 9/24/24: Gold and Silver Miners Soar

Chinese Stimulus Sparks Melt-Up in Gold, Silver, and Mining ETFs. Overview: The markets were sniffing the Chinese stimulus days before it was official. All assets are in a melt-up mode; gold led the parade, and finally, silver caught up.  The bull market in precious metals has been confirmed. Once again, the principle of confirmation saved […]

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Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal

I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]

Dow Theory Update for November 10: Secondary (bullish) reaction for SIL & GDX signaled on 11/10/22

Dow Theory Update for February 4: Primary bear market signaled on January 27, 2022 for precious metals ETFs

Gold and Silver remain in a primary bull market when appraised with “shorter-term” Dow Theory.     GOLD AND SILVER   In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions.   A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by […]

Dow Theory Update for November 17: Secondary reaction against the primary bear market and setup for a potential Bull market signal in US Bonds

  Primary and secondary trends for precious metals, their metals, and US stocks remain bullish.   I am writing before the close. So please do your own homework.    US INTEREST RATES   General Remarks:   In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the Dow Theory’s performance when applied to precious metals and their miners: Whole study

  I have merged the following three posts into one, which has become a “page” (see the heading of this blog): http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow_15.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow_24.html  If you want to become convinced about the superiority of the Dow Theory over other trend following strategies and check by yourself the outperformance of the trades that were signaled “live” […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the Dow Theory’s performance when applied to precious metals and their miners (III)

  Results for and SIL/GDX   The first post of this saga set out the premises of our study while the second post, analyzed the outperformance of SLV/GLD versus Buy and Hold (BAH).   Today, we will see the outcome of the trades that were signaled on this blog “live” for SIL/GDX  since its start […]

Dow Theory Update for May 28th: Setup for a primary bull market in US bonds completed

If TLT confirms IEF’s breakup, a primary bull market in US bonds will be signaled   I am writing before the close, so things might change. Readers, as always, do  your own homework.  US STOCKS Be totally updated on the current trends (and danger signs) by becoming a Subscriber to thedowtheory.com, and thereby increase your […]