Category: Uncategorized

Dow Theory Update for July 6th: Setup for primary bear market completed for SIL and GDX

Secondary trend for US stocks turned bearish on June 26th These words are being penned before the close of July 6th so things might change by the close. So readers beware. Please excuse the quality of the charts, as I’m on a short vacation on a paradise beach, so I’m working with my laptop instead […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Did Rhea really tell that secondary reactions had to last three weeks? (II)

Demolishing the 3 weeks time requirement dogma In the first post of this saga, which you can find here, I made the bold statement that Schannep’s Dow Theory by shortening the time requirement for a secondary reaction and by doing away with the 1/3 retracement of the previous bull/bear swing was actually closer to Rhea […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: The Rule of Seven: A vital tool to determine profit objectives

  Do Dow Theorists need to establish profit objectives? Rhea wrote that the Dow Theory could not forecast the extent of a rally or decline. In other words, the Dow Theory determines likely direction, and we take what the market offers us. However, Schannep long time ago incorporated into his arsenal a tool that allows […]

Dow Theory special issue: Why it is a bad idea to apply the Dow Theory to monthly highs and the vital importance of confirmation

 Secondary reactions and not monthly highs are the valid breakup points In a previous post I said I was going to test a breakout system based on taking 1 month high in order to see if the Dow Theory could be (mis)interpreted as implying that the joint penetration of 1 month highs is a valid […]

Dow Theory Update for January 5, 2019: A new post coming soon. Happy new year

Stay tuned. I hope to pen a new post in the next few days. In the meantime happy new year. The Dow Theorist

Holding Feet to the Fire

Dow Theory Update for May 17: US stocks refuse to confirm neither bull nor bear signal

End result: No change of primary trend. US STOCKS The primary trend is bullish since November 21st, 2016, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market). The secondary reaction was signaled on April 13th, as explained here. As per Schannep’s Dow Theory in order to complete […]

Dow Theory Update for September 23: Primary and secondary trends unchanged for US stocks, gold/silver, and their ETF miners

Post concerning Stress-test under weak cyclical bull markets coming very soon I am writing before the close. So, while very unlikely, things might change after the close US STOCKS The primary trend is bullish as explained hereand here The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market) as explained here According to […]

Dow Theory review for 2015: GOLD AND SILVER

First of all my apologies for posting this review so late. However, facts are facts. My belated analysis of gold and silver performance does not change what happened in 2015. Truth be said: This blog takes quite a toll on my free time. If time were in unlimited supply I’d like to post more studies […]

Dow Theory Update for November 2: Gold, silver and their miners ETFs under a secondary reaction

 The Dow Theory managed to “smell” the change of trend well before other indicators US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend are bullish as explained here and here    By the way, this primary bull market signal was not greeted with enthusiasm by many. It is said that bull markets climb a wall of worries, […]

Dow Theory Update for May 7: Stocks close up on stronger volume

Gold and silver close down but remain above last minor recorded lows. US Stocks The SPY and Industrials closed up, and the SPY made a higher high (unconfirmed). The Transports closed down. The Industrials and Transports should confirm soon, so that I don’t begin to suspect that a secondary reaction is in the making. The […]

Dow Theory Update for April 4: Stocks fall out of bed on heavy volume

Precious metals arrest their decline. US Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. Volume was heavy and portrays a bearish picture. Here you have an updated chart displaying volume readings. As you can see red arrows (bearish volume days) dominate the landscape. Furthermore, today’ strong volume at a market top spell trouble for the […]