Declines After Sell Signals with STI


Schannep Timing Indicator SELL Signals and the 
further S&P500 Loss to the final Bear Market Lows*:
(Data since 12/31/1953)          
Sell Date Level Low Date: level   further loss: months to low:
8/20/1956 48.25 10/22/1957 38.98   19.2%   14.1
11/12/1959 57.17 10/25/1960 52.30 * 8.5%   11.5
5/10/1962 63.57 6/26/1962 52.32   17.7%   1.5
5/2/1966 90.90 10/7/1966 73.20   19.5%   5.2
1/22/1968 94.03 3/5/1968 87.72 * 6.7%   1.5
3/7/1969 98.65 5/26/1970 69.29   29.8%   14.6
2/23/1973 113.16 8/22/1973 100.53 * 11.2%   6.0
11/20/1973 98.66 10/3/1974 62.26   36.9%   10.5
10/31/1977 92.34 3/6/1978 86.90   5.9%   4.2
10/26/1978 96.03 11/14/1978 92.49 * 3.7%   0.6
8/31/1981 122.79 8/12/1982 102.42   16.6%   11.4
2/22/1984 154.31 7/24/1984 147.82 * 4.2%   5.1
10/16/1987 282.70 12/4/1987 223.92   20.8%   1.6
8/23/1990(a) 307.06 10/11/1990 295.46   3.8%   1.6
6/20/1994 455.48 6/24/1994 442.80 * 2.8%   0.1
8/27/1998 1042.59 8/31/1998 957.28   8.2%   0.1
8/30/1999 1324.02 10/15/1999 1247.41 * 5.8%   1.5
3/16/01(a) 1150.53 9/21/01 965.80   16.0%   6.2
7/3/2002 953.99 10/9/2002 776.76   18.6%   3.2
8/5/2004** 1080.70 8/12/2004 1063.23 * 1.6%   0.3
7/12/2006 1258.60 7/17/2006 1234.49 * 1.9%   0.2
1/15/2008 1380.95 10/20/08 985.40   28.6%   9.2
2/19/09(a) 778.94 3/9/09 676.53   13.1%   0.6
8/10/11(a) 1120.76 8/10/11 1099.23   0.2%   1.8
  Average further decline:     12.6%   4.7
             
*When no 'official' Bear market follows this is the low for this move.  
**This signal was a 1/2 sell signal due to the very favorable monetary status.
(a) was a 'stop-loss' due to definition of Bear market being met.
11 Signals were followed by 'official' Bear markets, 9 were not.

 


 

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There has been renewed interest in the Dow Theory since Jack Schannep presented his research to the Market Technicians Association that showed Dow Theory produced an excess return of 1.5% per year (from 1953 thru 2011) versus a buy and hold strategy.  His presentation attracted a whole new generation of Dow Theory enthusiasts.   Read the article HERE.

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