Transports fail to join the bullish parade
Zero Hedge sees a correction coming
Zero Hedgehas noted that, of late, credit markets seem to be a good predictor of stock market activity. In other words, when credit markets swoon, stocks tend to follow suit.
Recent action (declines and shares redeemed) in JNK ETF seems to suggest that stocks are going to face headwind soon. As followers of this Dow Theory blog are well aware, volume has been bearish for weeks now, so a secondary reaction wouldn’t come as a surprise. However, I give priority to price action itself and, until now, the trend has not changed.
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Volume today contracted as prices advanced. This makes it a bearish volume day.
Gold and silver
GLD puked yesterday 16.84 tonnes, which is more than Cyprus’s gold holdings. I again encourage my readers to read Fofoa’s latest post to find plausible explanations as to the deep meaning of what is happening to GLD’s inventories.
GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed down. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for April 11, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/11/2013 | 159.19 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.99% | 17.31% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
