Later today special issue on gold
Zero Hedge sees a correction coming
Zero Hedgehas noted that, of late, credit markets seems to be a good predictor of stock market activity. In other words, when credit markets swoon, stocks tend to follow suit.
Recent action (declines and shares redeemed) in JNK ETF seems to suggest that stocks are going to face headwind soon. As followers of this Dow Theory blog are well aware, volume has been bearish for weeks now, so a secondary reaction wouldn’t come as a surprise. However, I give priority to price action itself and, until now, the trend has not changed, even after today’s rout.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. In spite of today’s action, which seems to herald lower prices ahead, it is still too early to declare the existence of a secondary reaction according to the Dow Theory. We should not forget that two trading days ago both the SPY and Industrials we making higher highs. So it is too early to declare the secondary trend as bearish. Therefore, both the primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Today’s volume was substantially higher than Friday’s, which makes it a bearish volume day. While the last pivot high was bullish (although volume was not impressive), the overall picture of volume continues bearish and has worsened today. Today’s action resulted in a pivot low. As you can see in the chart below today’s low was on higher volume than the preceding low (connected to today’s low through the pink horizontal line). Therefore, today’s pivot was bearish as volume was stronger than the volume recorded at the preceding low.
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| Bearish volume patterns outweight bullish ones |
Gold and silver
GLD continues its bleeding. It seems that demand for allocated gold has something to do with GLD’s “pukes”.
GLD and SLV closed down in free fall mode. As you can guess, both the primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Later today, I will post a special issue on gold.
SIL and GDX, the gold and silver miners ETF, closed down as well. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
| Data for April 15, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/15/2013 | 155.12 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 6.20% | 14.31% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
