Stocks moderately up
Turd Ferguson has elaborated on the two alternative end games for gold
I blogged yesterday that I am seeing two distinct outcomes for gold. In a nutshell: Either we are just undergoing a severe correction and even the end of the bull market, or we are getting very close to the demise of all gold surrogates, namely “paper gold” which will be followed by a reset of the gold price.
Turd Ferguson in his “tfmetalsreport” blog further expounds such two alternative scenarios. I feel it is a must-read for all gold holders.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend is bullish.
Today’s volume was lower than yesterday’s. Advancing prices were not met by expanding volume, which is bearish.
In spite of the pivot high we say on 04/10/2013 (which was a bullish pivot), the overall pattern of volume is bearish as there are more “minuses” than “pluses.” The chart below says it all:
 |
| A modest rebound: Volume retreated |
Gold and silver
GLD and SLV closed up, albeit with indecision, which IMHO, is bearish. In any instance, the primary and secondary trend for gold and silver is bearish.
GDX didn’t even manage to close up and closed…down. SIL closed modestly up. The primary and secondary trend is bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for April 16, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/16/2013 | 157.41 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.77% | 16.00% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
