Primary bear market re-confirmed in GDX and SIL
Investment fraternity bearish on stocks
Barry Ritholtz blog “The Big Picture” reports that the so-called “sell side indicator” is extremely bearish, meaning that most investment professionals have a bearish outlook for stocks. Normally, extreme readings tend to have “contrarian” outcomes. Thus, in the present instance, pervasive bearishness seems to confirm that a primary bear market is not yet in the cards.
Stocks
The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s. Since it was an “up” day, it has a bullish connotation as higher prices were met by expanding volume. We have had bullish volume for three days in a row.
Gold and Silver
GLD lost inventory yesterday. The disconnect between paper, and physical gold is apparent. Something gotta give in.
GLD and SLV closed down. GLD, though, refused, once again, to make a lower low. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX and SIL closed down and made jointly lower lows, thereby re-confirming the primary bear market signal. As you can see in the chart below the horizontal line (previous lows) has been jointly violated. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
 |
| Primary bear market re-confirmed for GDX and SIL |
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for April 2, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/02/2013 | 156.82 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 7.37% | 15.56% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
