Stocks closed up near highest highs
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary in this blog.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday’s, which is bullish and higher prices were supported by expanding volume. We have had 3 bullish volume days in a row. I’d label the overall picture of volume as neutral. Here you have an updated chart.
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| Volume is becoming neutral. |
Gold and silver
GLD lost inventory yesterday. At this pace, GLD will be drained before the end of 2013. Something has to give in.
Zero Hedge reports that today silver had its best day in 15 months. Such momentum explosions (when they occur near bottoms) tend to be bullish and signal a change of trend. However, I’d rather trust less arcane and more solid Dow Theory to spot a change of trend. I am in no need to call the absolute market top or bottom. I am happy with spotting a change of trend soon enough to get in or out and get the “meat” that resides in the middle of a trend.
Gold has retraced almost ½ of the losses made since April 12. Let’s see if the rally holds and doesn’t fizzle out.
GLD and SLV closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
As to the gold and silver miners ETFs, GDX and SIL, both closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
| Data for April 25, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/25/2013 | 158.52 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.53% | 16.82% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist.
