GLD cannot stop puking
Doug Short reports durable goods orders plunged in March
Doug Short, a market analyst I respect, reported in Seeking Alpha that durable goods orders collapsed in March. He makes a conclusive case (supported by charts) that there is a strong correlation between durable goods orders and subsequent S&P performance. If past experience is to be proven right again, we should brace ourselves for a secondary reaction, which, hitherto, the market has stubbornly dodged.
Stocks
The Transports and the Industrials closed up. The SPY closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bullish.
Volume contracted today, which is bullish as declining prices in the S&P and broad indices like Nasdaq were not supported by expanding volume.
Gold and silver
GLD lost inventory again. GLD’s inventory’s malaise is not unique to this ETF. There is a run on physical gold and, thus, as reported by GoldSeek.com, gold is disappearing from all depositories. Thus, over the past 4 weeks total inventories collapsed by over 5.5. million ounces. This is not small potatoes. Where is the gold going? Who is so desperately seeking physical gold? The bullion banks in order to meet allocation demands? Why such deluge of allocation requests? Has it something to do with the USD? These are questions that any inquisitive mind should pose. I am not so sure about the answers, but at least we have to be inquisitive enough to smell a rat. At the risk of repeating myself, I feel that the best answers have been given by blogger Fofoa whom you can read here.
GLD and SLV closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
GDX and SIL, the gold and silver miners ETFs closed down. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today:
| Data for April 26, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/26/2013 | 158.24 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 8.34% | 16.61% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
