Gold stronger than silver
Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today in this blog.
Alternative explanation to GLD “pukes.”
Here and hereyou can find two views on GLD inventory drain. According to them, nothing nasty is about to happen to GLD or paper gold. Since Bron Suchecki, who works at the Perth Mint, is a real “insider” and not just a phony “expert” I wouldn’t discard his thoughts out of hand.
In any instance, my take is as follows. Physical gold is to be in one’s possession or the closest thing to it (i.e. fully allocated gold in bullion ). I see it as a long term insurance with the potential for a windfall profit, and such core physical gold holding is not to be traded, not even under the Dow Theory. However, when it comes to “paper gold” it is a fully tradable item whose trading can benefit from the Dow Theory.
Stocks
The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The SPY made a higher high, which, once again, remains unconfirmed by the other indices. Such a lack of confirmation shouldn’t last too long if the primary trend is to dodge, once again, a secondary reaction.
Today’s volume was higher than yesterday, which is bullish as higher prices were supported by expanding volume.
Gold and Silver
Although it is a “no-new”, GLD “puked” once again. Is demand for allocated gold forcing the bullion banks to redeem GLD in search for physical?
GLD closed up. SLV closed down. The primary trend is bearish, and the secondary trend is bullish. Yes, the secondary trend, turned bulish yesterday, as you can read here.
GDX and SIL the gold and silver miners ETFs, closed up. The primary and secondary trend remains bearish. However, a further “push” upwards exceeding the last minor recorded highs (04/25/2013 for SIL and GDX) would turn the secondary trend as bullish. In the meantime, we peacefully observe the markets.
Here you have the figures of the markets I monitor for today.
| Data for April 30, 2013 | |||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SPY | |||
| SPY | |||
| Bull market started | 11/15/2012 | 135.7 | |
| Bull market signaled | 01/02/2013 | 146.06 | |
| Last close | 04/30/2013 | 159.68 | |
| Current stop level: Bear mkt low | 135.7 | ||
| Unrlzd gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| 9.32% | 17.67% | 7.63% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR GOLD (GLD) | |||
| GLD | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 149.46 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 160.54 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 161.16 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 162.6 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.39% | 7.83% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR SILVER (SLV) | |||
| SLV | |||
| Bull market started | 06/28/2012 | 25.63 | |
| Bull market signaled | 08/22/2012 | 28.92 | |
| Exit December 20 | 12/20/2012 | 29 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/02/2012 | 29.95 | |
| Realized gain % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | ||
| 0.28% | 13.15% | ||
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF SIL | |||
| SIL | |||
| Bull market started | 07/24/2012 | 17.08 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 21.83 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 21.69 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 11/15/2012 | 21.87 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -0.64% | 26.99% | 27.81% | |
| DOW THEORY PRIMARY TREND MONITOR ETF GDX | |||
| GDX | |||
| Bull market started | 05/16/2012 | 39.56 | |
| Bull market signaled | 09/04/2012 | 47.77 | |
| Exit January 23 | 01/24/2013 | 44.56 | |
| Current stop level: Sec React low | 12/05/2012 | 45.35 | |
| Realized Loss % | Tot advance since start bull mkt | Max Pot Loss % | |
| -6.72% | 12.64% | 20.75% | |
Sincerely,
The Dow Theorist
